[MAFIA] ANIME WAIFU BATTLE ROYALE! =+= FINISHED =+=

Posts

oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Let's approach this in a Danganronpa format. Every time someone dies, we try to find the killer. Using this information, we can slowly whittle down the number of players. Though, it's a stupid suggestion, so it won't work, and should be ignored.
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
30581
Yeah, we do still have to hunt the serial killer. Whoever was in lime zone yesterday is probably not there now, given how we change zones at night.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
So it seems there are at most 7 alliances right now, with at least 5 people not being in an alliance. Also, everyone who is in an alliance is not in lime zone, so probably not the SK.
In the name of keeping you all informed, two bits of information were released (they've been added to the first post).

- Timing: I cannot say exactly the timeline for Night Phase things, except that bar some exceptions, the general layout is Move > Items/Skills/etc

- You may pass an item to a partner by using the command #item give <name>, but only to your current partner. If you have no partner you cannot pass items to them. If you have no items, you cannot pass items.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Which means that if everyone who's in an alliance says so, we already have far fewer suspects.

I'm in an alliance.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
wait, I mistook green and lime. crap.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Then it's possible that there's an alliance in lime, making everyone a suspect again.

So scratch that idea.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
We do know that whoever are in green, blue and purple aren't in an alliance.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
SOMEONE STOLE MY ITEM

Joke's on them, it was a terrible item, but still. Someone has a thief ability.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Okay, so the numbers are how many people are in each zone, as far as I can tell. There are 19 alive, and 4+2+4+3+1+3+1+1 = 19, so yay maths.

Let's look at where people went initially:

CAVE - cornucopia
pianotm - cornucopia
karins - cornucopia
psy - cornucopia
Delsin - cornucopia
Trihan - cornucopia
Hexatona - cornucopia
Zeuzio - green
Natook - red
demonlord - blue
Tunger - aqua
NeverSilent - aqua
Frogge - aqua
Jeroen - orange
oddRABBIT - orange
Bart - lime
Irog - lime
LockeZ - yellow
Kloe - yellow
Blobofgoo - pink

This means that on the first day we had 7 people at the cornucopia, 1 in green, 1 in red, 1 in blue, 3 in aqua, 2 in orange, 2 in lime, 2 in yellow, and 1 in pink.

We now have 4 in the cornucopia, 1 in green, 0 in red, 1 in blue, 3 in aqua, 2 in orange, 3 in lime, 4 in yellow and 1 in pink.

Fact #1: At least 3 people moved from the cornucopia to somewhere else.
Fact #2: Either nobody moved from green, blue, aqua, orange and pink or an equal number of people left/entered.
Fact #3: Natook definitely moved.
Fact #4: Lime has acquired an extra person, yellow has an extra 2.
Fact #5: TungerMan died in lime but started in aqua.
Fact #6: Only Bart and Irog went to lime initially.
Fact #7: Tunger went to aqua along with NeverSilent and Frogge.
Fact #8: Whoever is in green, blue and pink is not in an alliance.
Fact #9: Someone definitely moved to aqua (same number of people but with Tunger dead there should have been 1 fewer if nobody moved there).

Supposition #1: Zeuzio stayed in green and has no alliance.
Supposition #2: demonlord stayed in blue and has no alliance.
Supposition #3: Blobofgoo stayed in pink and has no alliance.

I base this theory on my belief that most players would have seen little point in moving from where they started last night, so the most likely possibility is that the people who started in the 1-man zones are the people who are still in them.

Supposition #4: The other 2 people at the cornucopia are in an alliance.

No real backing for this, it just seems likely considering I imagine most of the other players have teamed up now.

I know who 2 of the people at the cornucopia are, because I stayed there and my partner is still there too. That gives me 5 possible people who moved, of which there are at least 3 who did. It's possible that more than 3 went and other people moved to the cornucopia, though.

Right now, since all we really know for 100% certain is the zone TungerMan died in, my suspicions lie mainly with Bart and Irog, the only two players I know for a fact started in that zone. However, I'm not discounting the possibility that NeverSilent or Frogge could have had some sort of ability to kill him during the day before night fell, and I'm also not discounting the possibility that some non-player entity killed Tunger.
NeverSilent
Got any Dexreth amulets?
6280
I actually agree with your approach, oddRABBIT, at least in this case. Considering this was a night 0 phase, the number of possibilities regarding what happened are rather limited:
1. The serial killer briefly formed an alliance with TungerManU and got him to reveal his special power. The serial killer then decided this power could become a danger for them and killed TungerManU.
2. The serial killer murdered someone at random, and it happened to be TungerManU.
3. The serial killer did not have a nightkill available at all (possible, since this was night 0), and TungerManU was killed by another "town" player.
4. TungerManU wasn't actively killed, but died from some sort of environmental effect. This seems very unlikely to me however, since random deadly effects would not only be extremely unfair rules-wise, but since TungerManU wasn't alone in the lime zone at the end of the night, other players would at least have noticed something.

Currently, it's very hard to tell who could have done what, since we're only beginning to figure out the use of the different zones and other rules for our deductions. At least, that's where I'm currently standing.

However, after rereading some of the earlier pages, there is now one person I'm much more suspicious of than anyone else at the moment, namely CAVE_DOG. Not because of his shenanigans regarding the yellow zone and such, but because of this post:
author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
it is probably best to have as few people in each zone as possible. then, when a murder happens, we will know who to sacrifice.

Depending on how you look at it, this might seem like useful advice for trying to catch the serial killer. But what disturbs me is that as far as I know, nowhere in the rules has it been explicitly stated that the serial killer must be in the same zone as their victim in order to be able to kill them. So that must mean CAVE_DOG either knows something about the workings of the serial killer role that we don't and he slipped up in this post, or he made a seemingly unwarranted assumption about it.
Either way, I want to know what drove him to come to this conclusion about the rules for the serial killer's nightkills if he isn't the serial killer himself.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
To be fair, NeverSilent, I made the same assumption. It just seems to make more sense that you can't kill people who aren't in the same zone as you, unless someone has like an airstrike power or something I guess.

Edit: Though if that is the case, what's stopping us from proposing that everybody go to the same zone and watch each other? Surely that way we'd notice any killing going on.
NeverSilent
Got any Dexreth amulets?
6280
Trihan, don't edit your posts!
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Hmm... That is troubling. I've been operating on the same assumption, but yeah, that might not be the case at all. If the SK has a ranged kill, then all of our location deducing might not amount to much.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
The edit was to add something rather than changing something that was already there, but good catch. I forgot that rule for Mafia type games, sorry.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
What's stopping us from going to the same zone is the fact that we are all enemies out to kill each other. The SK isn't our only foe. Besides, until someone says: "I'm in lime and I saw stuff" I won't believe we can even witness nightkills at all.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Both fair points.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
If the serial killer is room-limited, then that means they have to target someone who was in the same room as them before moving. Because if that weren't true, then the serial killer wouldn't know where anyone was moving to, and thus would only have a 10% chance to succeed. Liberty can't make them target someone's new room, she can only make them target someone's old room, otherwise the game would be impossible for the SK.

However, TungermanU moved from aqua to lime overnight. Before dying.

So if the SK's ability is room-limited, then... the SK has to target someone who's in the room with them before moving, but the kill doesn't happen until after the other player moves away from them? That makes no damn sense.



Therefore I conclude that the SK's power is almost certainly not limited by rooms. If it were, TungerManU would have died in the aqua zone, not the lime zone.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Though if that is the case, it begs the question of just what purpose the zones have.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
That makes sense. I guess it would still be possibke for the SK to move to a room, Liberty then saying: "These people are in the room." and the SK then choosing a target, but the SK bypassing rooms makes more sense.

Alternatively, it could be the SK doesn't choose a location to move to at all, just a target, and then automatically moves to the zone that person moved to and kills them.