SUMMER MOVIE WAGER

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I made a topic last year with the exact same name (just so that when I search for it in the future I'll be confused about which is which), it's about this summer's movie and how well they will do in the US (and possibly abroad).

So you make a top 10 list of movies you think are going to do well this summer (and three dark horses, and possibly three more dark horses, see below)

The rules from last year's topic:
Summer Movie Wager Scoring:
  • Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:
  • 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
  • 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
  • 5 points if it was two spots away
  • 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
  • 1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.


This time I'll also provide the dates. Movie that open from May 1st to September 4th count. And the cutoff date for counting them moneys is also September 4th. (So a movie opening on September 4th is unlikely to get very high on that list even if it makes buttloads of money later)

Also again, my source will be Box Office Mojo. The main game counts US box office. But I'd like to have some kind of special category ("international dark horse" maybe) where you could put like three movies you believe will show up in the international box office top 10 but not in the US one.

Opinions on this? Maybe one point for each international dark horse you get right. And it would be excluding the US from its numbers. (If Box Office Mojo can do that easily, otherwise it'll just be worldwide I guess)

So is there any interest in this for this year? For some light reading on what is coming up this summer there's /film's summer movie preview and IMDb's summer movie guide.

Like last year the winner can get like a steam game or something else that isn't too expensive or too much effort. :)
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323
#10 - War For the Planet of the Apes
#9 - The Mummy
#8 - The Dark Tower
#7 - Transformers: The Last Knight
#6 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
#5 - Cars 3
#4 - Alien: Covenant
#3 - Wonder Woman
#2 - Guardians of The Galaxy 2
#1 - Spiderman: Homecoming
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
I'm betting on black horses.

#10 -The Hero
#9 -All Eyez On Me
#8 -Lady Macbeth
#7 -The Beguiled
#6 -Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
#5 -Apes
#4 -Wonder Woman
#3 -Guardians 2
#2 -Dunkirk
#1 -Cars 3
As the reigning international champion, I am in. I am going to bet big on the blockbusters and family movies to pull in mounds of cash.

Spider-man and Guardians are going to blow it out of the water in local markets. Transformers: The Last Knight is going to (relatively) stink up the US market, but make a KILLING overseas. Rough Night is going to be this year's sleeper comedy megamoney maker, Hangover style.

I also just learned about The Dark Tower. I had no idea a movie was being made. I am psyched.

#10 - Captain Underpants
#9 - Alien: Covenant
#8 - War For the Planet of the Apes
#7 - Despicable Me 3
#6 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
#5 - Cars 3
#4 - Rough Night
#3 - Wonder Woman
#2 - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
#1 - Spider-Man: Homecoming

International top 10 but not making top 10 in US:
#3. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
#2. The Mummy
#1. Transformers: The Last Knight

EDIT:
Regular Dark Horses
#3. The Mummy
#2. Dunkirk
#1. Transformers: The Last Knight
Don't forget both the "regular" dark horses and the international dark horses. I should also give a think about my list...
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
1 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
2 Wonder Woman
3 Spider-Man: Homecoming
4 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
5 The Dark Tower
6 War for the Planet of the Apes
7 Detroit
8 Atomic Blonde
9 Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
10 Captain Underpants
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

@Kentona
Yeah, I just saw The Dark Tower, I couldn't believe it.
Are they going to stop with just 1 movie is the question.

I would love to see an adaptation of book 4, Wizard and Glass.

The Red Eye is returning :)


oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Since I am unaware of what movies exist, I am once again going to guess what movies will succeed based on the people above me.

#10 War for the Planet of the Apes
#9 Cars 3
#8 The Dark Tower
#7 Wonder Woman
#6 Captain Underpants
#5 Despicable Me 3
#4 Pirates of the Caribbean: DMTNT
#3 Transformers: The Last Knight
#2 Spiderman: Homecoming
#1 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Dark Horses
#1 Valerian and the City of a thousand planets
#2 The Mummy
#3 Alien: Covenant

International Dark Horses
#1 Detroit
#2 Dunkirk
#3 The Mummy
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

Your movie opening date is interesting considering that some movies release earlier in some areas than others. I'm going to make every one mad by saying that I plan on watching Gaurdians of The Galaxy 2 this Friday. (USA release May 5 / Other places as early as April 25.)

So it looks like at least in some areas this movie gets extra time to make money due to its close release date to your rule settings. Movies released in the middle don't get this extra advantage.
Yes. That's something to factor in. A movie released late in August is less likely to make the top of the list. (though movies often make most of their moneys in the first three weeks or so. Last year, for example, Suicide Squad was released some time in August and made it to the top 10 easily anyway.)

And the rules say that it's only US box office that counts.

So I'm also (arbitrarily) going to say that even though Guardians is released in certain areas in April it's the May date of the US that counts for it's eligibility. (If you, for some reason, think it'll do so well overseas that it'll make that top 10 but not the US one)
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
Well, fans have been screaming for a Wonder Woman movie for decades, and I'm a betting man that thinks that just like every studio makes an occasional flop, when a studio is down on it's luck, it's going to make at least one good movie, and WB is due. There are two factors I think will keep Wonder Woman out of the top slot; Guardians of the Galaxy, and the fact that DC fans are a little disgruntled, but insiders say Wonder Woman is indeed going to be the odd one out, so all of those factors put together are why I'm banking on it making second.
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

author=pianotm
Well, fans have been screaming for a Wonder Woman movie for decades


Wait no longer...


Sooz
They told me I was mad when I said I was going to create a spidertable. Who’s laughing now!!!
5354
#10 the Room 2: Johnny's Resurrection
#9 the Snorks
#8 Culo: the Butt of Fate
#7 160 Minutes of Neil deGrasse Tyson Making Fart Noises
#6 Ratboy Genius's Big Movie Adventure
#5 CONQUISTADOGS!
#4 Batman: More Grimacing Dourly
#3 Homestar Runner's Big Movie Adventure
#2 Alien vs Predator vs the Jetsons
#1 Probably some Marvel movie, the kids seem to like those

Dark Horses:
#1 Grandma's homemade chicken tenders
#2 A kitten video on YouTube
#3 Coincidental misfortune at every turn
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
author=Sooz
#5 CONQUISTADOGS!


Must see.
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
kory_toombs
Wait no longer...


Never in the history of ever have TV movies ever counted.

Edit: Seriously, the hide tags need to be fixed for realz.

P. S. Calling it now. Sooz wins this.
Time to make that list. I'm almost a bit late.

1. Spiderman: Homecoming
2. Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2
3. Despicable Me 3
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. Wonder Woman
6. Cars 3
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
8. Transformers: The Last Knight
9. Alien: Covenant
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Dark Horse:
Rough Night
Baywatch
The Mummy

International Dark Horse:
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
Dunkirk
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

After seeing box office sales, changing wager = cheating?

It doesn't matter how good Wonder Woman was, Spider Man for the win.
changing wager = cheating
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
Okay fine. I'll delete it.
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