SUMMER MOVIE WAGER

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It's that time of year, or this is the third time I'm making this topic so it's sort of a tradition by now.
Previous topic
Another previous topic

The rules from last year's topic:
So you make a top 10 list of movies you think are going to do well this summer (and three dark horses, and possibly three more dark horses, see below*)

The rules from last year's topic:
Summer Movie Wager Scoring:
  • Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:
  • 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
  • 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
  • 5 points if it was two spots away
  • 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
  • 1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.


*In addition the "international dark horse" that I had last year will also be a thing this year. Pick three movies you think will make the top10 international box office but not the US box office. Any correct choice will be worth one point.

Like before I'll use Box Office Mojo. The reporting for international box office is slightly wonky in that it's not entirely up to date all the time. But most of the points are from US box office anyway (and basically because of this)

This year it'll actually start a bit earlier than usual because I follow /film's schedule which determines summer to start when Avengers: Infinity War opens. Which is the last weekend of April. The boring side of this is that this means we all probably know which movie is going to be #1. The good side of this is that there's a site http://smoview.a2hosted.com/ where you can write in your picks and follow in real-time how they do (I know I'm the only one excited about this but whatever)

So because of global warming summer this year goes from April 27th to September 3rd. List up people! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_in_film#April%E2%80%93June


(oh yeah and as before there is some small prize to whoever wins. In the past it's been Steam games and that's the easiest but if you hate steam or hate games I'm sure we can work something out)
kentona
Autobots rollout, eh?
20442
Here We Go Again!

Top 10 summer movies by kentona:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
7. Teen Titans GO to the Movies
8. Mission Impossible 6: Fallout
9. Hotel Transylvania 3
10. Ocean's Eight

International dark horse:
1. Crazy Rich Asians
2. Sicario: Day of the Soldado
3. Hotel Artemis

Regular Dark Horse
1. The First Purge
2. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
3. Skyscraper
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
5698
Ok, after last year Cap knows america dumb. America likes boom.

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. The Incredibles 2
3. Deadpoop 2
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
6. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
7. Mission Impossible: Fallout
8. Christopher Robin
9. Hotel Artemis
10. Hotel Transylvania 3

Dark Horses: The Darkest Minds, Alpha, Ant-Man and The Wasp

Edit: Cap switches 5 an 6
Edit 2: Actually, Mission Impossible is missing on Cap's list.
Edit 3: More hotels
Don't forget to do both sets of Dark Horses, the "regular" ones and then the international ones.
pianotm
The only thing in this game that's bonkers is CAVE_DOG.
16446
Yeah, Kenton, I think you have way too much confidence in Solo. Those trailers look terrible. It probably will chart, but I'm not going to bet on it.

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. Incredibles 2
4. Ant-Man and The Wasp
5. Deadpool 2
6. Ocean's 8
7. Mission Impossible: Fallout
8. Christopher Robin
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story
10. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Dark Horses: Slender Man, Mama Mia: Here We Go Again, Crazy Rich Asians

EDIT: Switched out out Mama Mia with Solo, and switched Hotel Artemis in Dark Horses with Mama Mia.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
5698
That's a ballsy move not putting it on the list.
pianotm
The only thing in this game that's bonkers is CAVE_DOG.
16446
Yeah, you're probably right about it. I think I'll switch out my number 9.
kentona
Autobots rollout, eh?
20442
author=pianotm
Yeah, Kenton, I think you have way too much confidence in Solo. Those trailers look terrible. It probably will chart, but I'm not going to bet on it.

It looks awesome, and...

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story/Box office
1.056 billion USD
Domestic: $532,177,324


HELLO!
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
5698
I guess it will be quite interesting to watch how The Incredibles, Solo, Deadpool and Jurassic Kingdom fare. They all have potential to earn over 400 million USd, but the only film, which managed that last year was Wonder Woman.
I guess some brave wager could put Solo or Jurassic Kingdom even as his #1.
Also, there's no real black horse this year, which could make it in top 5. The second 5 should end up more diverse.
It will be a tough fight.
Top 10 summer movies:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Toy Story 4
3. The LEGO Movie Sequel
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Slender Man
6. Ocean's 8
7. Christopher Robin
8. The Incredibles 2
9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Can't fit on the list:
Deadpool 2
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Ant-Man
kentona
Autobots rollout, eh?
20442
Toy Story 4
2019 ‧ Fantasy/Comedy
Woody reunites with Bo Peep.
Initial release: June 20, 2019
kory_toombs
I finally changed my avatar, but that doesn't mean I have a meaningful user title.
12045
1) Avengers: Infinity War
2) Deadpool 2
3) The Incredibles 2
4) Solo: A Star Wars Story
5) Ant Man and the Wasp
6) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
7) Mission Impossible: Fallout
8) Teen Titans Go! To The Movies
9) Skyscraper
10) Ocean's Eight

Dark Horses:

Overboard
Slenderman
The Equalizer 2

kentona
Autobots rollout, eh?
20442
I'm surprised I am the only one so far to think that Crazy Rich Asians won't make a killing in Asia.
pianotm
The only thing in this game that's bonkers is CAVE_DOG.
16446
author=kentona
author=pianotm
Yeah, Kenton, I think you have way too much confidence in Solo. Those trailers look terrible. It probably will chart, but I'm not going to bet on it.
It looks awesome, and...

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story/Box office
1.056 billion USD
Domestic: $532,177,324


HELLO!

Solo is different. There's a lot of unenthusiasm among fans about the film, and Disney is actually projecting it will...well, not fail...but they're not confident it will do well. Three things actually said by Lucasfilm: "The lead actor needs acting lessons." "Lord and Taylor released for creative differences." "Lord and Taylor's footage is all useable." The first should never have been made public and they should have spun differently, especially in light of third. They also should have never DONE the second one. Lucasfilm has an issue with firing directors and the fans are noticing. Based on what Ron Howard has been making public, it turns out what they were doing was actually pretty good, and he's being forced to change it. This was a good move? There's also the May 4th Boycott to consider.

It would probably be better if we didn't know so much of what was going on.
kentona
Autobots rollout, eh?
20442
That is one incredibly small segment of the movie buying public, that it won't even seriously dent the final total. Your average 45 year old dude who watched Star Wars in theatres dont give no fuck. People panned Rogue One and a lot of hardcore fans complained about it (and still do!), but it still made mad bank.

And this contest is all about mad bank.
I listened to the slashfilmcast episode on the movie wager and in it Peter Sciretta (who runs /film) mentioned that there has been some tiny buzz around people who have seen Solo (maybe?) saying it's actually good and very fun.

They also mentioned that with the controversies surrounding it the mad bank it makes may be dependent on its actual quality. So if it's actually good...

It won't beat Avengers, but I'm going to put it at #2 in my list (which I guess I will work out during the weekend or something)
kory_toombs
I finally changed my avatar, but that doesn't mean I have a meaningful user title.
12045

Solo will do well (it will actually make a lot of money), but it might do the worst compared to the all the other Star Wars films due to contributing factors everyone should be well aware of by now. If the Last Jedi was good I might have put it higher than #4 on my list, but the Last Jedi was garbage, so...

I loved The Force Awakens and Rogue One, both great movies. Actually Rogue One might be the best Star Wars movie. (I'm not overly attached the the original trilogy. I didn't watch the originals until I rented it on VHS when I was in high school.) I'm also not a big hater for the prequels. The Last Jedi rubbed me the wrong way though.
kentona
Autobots rollout, eh?
20442
The Last Jedi was awesome. #2 or 3 Star Wars film.

Who even are you people?
I don't know what they are smoking.
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