SUMMER MOVIE WAGER

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pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
It's okay to skip the Clone Wars movie. It was really awful, even though it introduces Ahsoka Tano (one of the most awesome Star Wars characters ever). All you need to know that that movie tells you is that Ahsoka Tano is assigned as Anakin's apprentice. Also, Clone Wars (the computer animated Cartoon Network show from 2008: not the original, for some reason, non-canon cartoon from 2003) was aired completely out of order and I mean the seasons are even mixed up. This website gives you the proper viewing order: http://www.ign.com/articles/2014/03/18/star-wars-the-clone-wars-how-to-watch-in-the-right-order
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
Clone Wars are an interesting example.

It's possible targeting wasn't good, but still 35 milion dollars is not a whole lot. And I remember it being promoted quite massively. Solo will do better, Star Wars are super popular right now, but we can indeed be surprised about the gross.
Seems a bit happened here. There's some TLJ hate that I would take more seriously if words like "white shaming", "special interest pandering" and "social justice warrior with purple hair" weren't used but oh well.

Let's instead think about those numbers. It is true that TLJ performed worse than expected. It's a 30% drop from TFA in the US box office, now we don't have enough data points to know if this is a trend or not. TFA might have been an outlier (first Star Wars movie in ten years) or it may be a downward trend (Rogue One did worse than TLJ, though, but again not enough datapoints)

If you do go wayback for the adjusted ticket price thingies. The Box Office Mojo of estimated admissions shows that TFA did pretty good and TLJ did better than Episode 2&3, but worse than all the others.

So what does this mean for Solo? I'm clearly speculating like everyone else in the thread. But I think that even with a downward ternd and worst case scenario Solo will still make at least 75% of what Rogue One did. If it does less than that I think Disney will probably call it a total disaster. I'm not saying it's unlikely this is where Solo will end up, it faces stiff competition. But I am saying that that is about the least amount of money Solo will make.

Rogue One did 500m in the US box office. 75% of 500m is still 375m. Personally I think it might do better than that. I'm thinking at least 400+m. But at 375m Solo would still make it to the Top 3 summer movies in all the last ten summers

What Solo has going for it. Or the thing Solo had going for it when executives greenlit it is that Han Solo is a known property and there's probably plenty of interest in a Han Solo origin movie. Since then there's been controversies surrounding the movie that have dampened Disney's expectations on it but the fact remains that it is a Han Solo origin movie and I know loads of people who pretended to be Han Solo in the playground who wouldn't mind seeing that origin story...


And on another note. Today is the last day for your predictions because the new Avengers movie opens in North America tomorrow. So if I see any lists with an "edited by xxx" after tomorrow you won't be eligible to win (though I will probably still count your points because it's all fun and games in the end)
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20495
The only beef I had with The Last Jedi was that the casino place should have been betting on pod racing - I felt that would have tied the three sets of trilogies together a little bit by giving a nod to Phantom Menace. TLJ was filled with memorable scenes and fucked with preconceived expectations, and I loved that. Everything about that film that it threw at me I enjoyed.

Also, I want a KOTOR movie. That game is the game that got me into Star Wars as a whole (that and watching the original trilogy on BETA MAX every summer since I was a wee lad).

For me, it goes:

1. Empire Strikes Back
2. The Last Jedi
3. A New Hope
4. The Force Awakens
5. Rogue One
6. Return of the Jedi
7. The Phantom Menace
8. Attack of the Clones
9. Revenge of the Sith
10. Star Wars Holiday Special
After prediction time is over, rename this thread to "Star Wars : The Debate Reawakens".

But seriously, I think the waning interest is because a lot of people (not everyone, but enough) realize that Disney is playing a numbers game. They have the market research, the demographics charts, and they can scan the internet for what's-popular as easily as we can scan for cat videos. Their entries are not art like the original trilogy, or even the prequel trilogy for all it's warts. They're formulated and tailor-fit to appeal to the widest possible audience, and they're entertaining strictly on a superficial level because that was the goal. There's no magic, and there never will be.

I mean, for God's sake, they can't even keep a steady director. I don't know what that tells you, but it tells me there's no long-term vision.
That numbers game has worked for their Marvel properties though. I think the main issue is finding some way to differentiate the two. (apart from doing the "only one movie a year instead of four/five") I think after the numbered trilogy is over with episode 9 the Star Wars machine will get a proper footing knowing what comes next. The success or failure of Solo will definitely be significant "point of no return". And it's only a month away! It'll be so exciting to see if it succeeds or fails!

And since we are doing it my SW list is probably: ANH, TLJ, TESB, ROTJ, TFA, TPM, ROTS and AOTC
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20495
Now for a more challenging ranking, on the subject of ranking
1 Phase One
1.1 Iron Man (2008)
1.2 The Incredible Hulk (2008)
1.3 Iron Man 2 (2010)
1.4 Thor (2011)
1.5 Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
1.6 Marvel's The Avengers (2012)

2 Phase Two
2.1 Iron Man 3 (2013)
2.2 Thor: The Dark World (2013)
2.3 Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
2.4 Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
2.5 Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
2.6 Ant-Man (2015)

3 Phase Three
3.1 Captain America: Civil War (2016)
3.2 Doctor Strange (2016)
3.3 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
3.4 Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
3.5 Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
3.6 Black Panther (2018)
3.7 Avengers: Infinity War (2018)


1. The Avengers
2. Thor: Ragnarok
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
4. Black Panther
5. Captain America: Civil War
6. Guardians of the Galaxy
7. Iron Man 3
8. Iron Man
9. Guardians of the Galaxy 2
10. Captain America: The First Avenger
11. Ant-Man
12. Iron Man 2
13. Spider-Man: Homecoming
14. Avengers: Age of Ultron
15. Doctor Strange
16. Thor
17. Thor: The Dark World
18. The Incredible Hulk

I will see where Avengers and the Deathly Hallows Part I slots in when I see it (likely next weekend). Everything after the top 6 or 7 is pretty fluid, and honestly I liked them all, but this is how I'd rank them.
pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
There's also a distinct difference between how Star Wars and the MCU is run. It proves that Disney does indeed respect their subsidiaries' autonomy. You don't see Marvel treating their directors like shit. James Gunn directed both Guardians of the Galaxy movies, and he's directing Volume 3. Jon Favreau has directed every Iron Man movie (and he even had a script for a couple of them XD). With Lucasfilm, any time a director disagrees even slightly with the studio, are immediately dismissed. No wonder people like Marvel but are starting to get disgusted with Star Wars.
edit: pianotm's got a faster draw than me.

““”̿ ̿ ̿ ̿ ̿’̿’̵͇̿̿з=(•̪●)=ε/̵͇̿̿/̿ ̿ ̿ ̿ ̿’““
pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
I mean, when Joss Whedon left, the quality of the Marvel movies dropped noticeably, but they're still really good movies and still faithful to the source material. I'm really excited to see what they do with X-Men if the Fox deal goes through. And I'm glad they're not actually buying Fox and that Fox is just selling their old label and throwing in a bunch of properties with it.

Edit: Damn, I was replying to Dyhalto's comment!
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20495
Are you watching the same movies I am? Because Marvel's movies keep getting better and better.
pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
Black Panther notwithstanding. Marvel's movies have started undermining themselves. It's nice that they don't take themselves seriously, but it would also be nice if they took themselves A LITTLE seriously. Honestly, they can't even have one serious moment without cracking a joke, and it's like it just completely makes the heros look like buffoons every single time. They can't even have the team assembly in Guardians 2 without one of them getting smacked. Doctor Strange can't have his moment of realization without the damn cape messing with ears. That's for the whole movies and it makes them look like parodies of themselves and do that enough times, and it starts to get really insulting to the viewer, and every Marvel movie since Age of Ultron has treaded that line. It's a big reason I've lost interest.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20495
I like that they've become funnier and less-serious and more entertaining comicbook superhero-y
author=pianotm
There's also a distinct difference between how Star Wars and the MCU is run. It proves that Disney does indeed respect their subsidiaries' autonomy. You don't see Marvel treating their directors like shit. James Gunn directed both Guardians of the Galaxy movies, and he's directing Volume 3. Jon Favreau has directed every Iron Man movie (and he even had a script for a couple of them XD). With Lucasfilm, any time a director disagrees even slightly with the studio, are immediately dismissed. No wonder people like Marvel but are starting to get disgusted with Star Wars.

On the other hand JJ Abrams returns for Episode 9, Rian Johnson has signed on to a separate Star Wars trilogy. So two out of four directors have a relationship that is good enough that they willingly are coming back for more.

On the Marvel front you have Edgar Wright being kicked off his movie after working on it for a couple of years. Joss Whedon dropping out of Phase 2 and going to the DC universe instead. You could make the same argument that Marvel's directors that step out of line are immediately dismissed.

I mean it's clear that the MCU is run by Kevin Feige and Star Wars is run by Kathleen Kennedy.

But yes it is also true that Star Wars hasn't entirely found its footing yet. If you compare it directly to the MCU, the four first MCU movies were Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, Iron Man 2 and Thor... I realize this is a dumb comparison to make but I personally think all the recent Star Wars movies are better than those four :)

That's for the whole movies and it makes them look like parodies of themselves and do that enough times, and it starts to get really insulting to the viewer, and every Marvel movie since Age of Ultron has treaded that line. It's a big reason I've lost interest.

Again on the other hand this is where the money talks I guess. In the beginning there was attempts at the more serious things in the movies but audiences clearly responded better to fun and lightheartedness. The fewer Thor: The Dark Worlds we have the better.


And yeah, ranking the Marvel movies is pretty damn hard. Mostly because I feel they are all quite samey, there's none that really stand out from the rest. So this is a ranking where #1 and #5 could probably switch on a daily basis.

1. Thor: Ragnarok
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Captain America: Winter Soldier
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
6. Black Panther
7. Guardians of The Galaxy 2
8. Captain America: The First Avenger
9. Ant-Man
10. Doctor Strange
11. The Avengers
12. Iron Man
13. Iron Man 3
14. Avengers: Age of Ultron
15. Thor
16. The Incredible Hulk
17. Thor: The Dark World
18. Iron Man 2
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
I haven't seen all of them but:

1. Thor: Ragnarok
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Captain America: Civil War
5. Ant-Man
6. Iron Man
7. Captain America: The First Avenger
8. Thor
8. Iron Man 3
10. Avengers: Age of Ultron
11. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
12. The Avengers
13. Iron Man 2
14. Thor: The Dark World

I think Ragnarok and both Guardians are way better than the rest too. And it's because they're silly and fun and have wrestling in them.
pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
I haven't seen all of them either. I know a lot of people aren't going to agree with my number one, but I have reasons for loving this movie so much.

1. Thor
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Iron Man
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Avengers
6. Captain America: The First Avenger
7. Doctor Strange
8. Captain America: Civil War
9. Iron Man 3
10. The Incredible Hulk
11. Thor: The Dark World
12. Iron Man 2

Unfortunately, I haven't seen the rest. I enjoyed The Dark World. Meanwhile, I absolutely hated Iron Man 2. So there's a huge divide there. The very first Thor movie has ended up one of my all time favorite super hero movies, meaning I hold it in the same regard as Wonder Woman, the 1979 Superman, and Spider-Man 2. Iron Man, Logan, and Guardians of the Galaxy are also on that pedestal for me.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
The first Thor could be higher on my list. It's one of very few marvel films I watched multiple times and it was always enjoyable. The Dark World is terrible imo.
On my list 4-8 could be in any order, they are very indifferent in quality, but they are all enjoyable.
Iron Man 3 was quirky but fun to watch.
The rest of list was bad from my perspetive (and I know many people love Winter Soldier, but the film is just one big cgi).
I don't intend to watch Dr. Strange, Homecoming and The Incredible Hulk. I kind of missed Black Panther as it wasn't promoted here at all.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20495
Logan was great!
kory_toombs
I won the RMN 2019 Stanley Cup Playoff Pool. Now I will never stop bragging about it.
12624

Space doesn't have gravity, but it also lacks friction. If you drop something in space from a place that has gravity (like a spaceship) it will fall in that direction contentiously at the same speed forever.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
So, Infinity War is an exhausting film and Deadpool in my opinion is just starting gaining presence (ads on public transport). I think The Incredibles might roll over it in cinemas as everyone knows about them being a thing.
Solo's also more under radar than a star wars story usually is. JW might end up outgrossing both Solo and Deadpool.