SUMMER MOVIE WAGER

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pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
Shinan
That's global right? Because for Summer Movie Wager purposes it looks more like around 200m.

EDIT: Maybe 200-250 if we're lucky.


No, worldwide. It's everything.
That's what global means.

EDIT: Unless you're a flat earther I guess...

EDIT2: I just saw Solo for a second time and it was still pretty good.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
If RPGs have taught me nothing else, it's that the world is flat and endlessly looping in all 4 directions.
pianotm
The TM is for Turtle Motivator
21412
You fools! The Earth is a dodecahedron!
Now the movie summer is starting to get really interesting. The Incredibles 2 has some really promising Thursday previews (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4407&p=.htm) and Ocean's 8, did fairly well. And Jurassic World 2 is getting its US release.

Can Incredibles 2 dethrone Deadpool 2 as #2? Will Solo get to $200m? Summer is finally upon us!

(Though I'll be watching the World Cup, I even missed out on Jurassic World 2 because I watched the opening game rather than get my ass in the theater on the last day it was screening)
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
From the look of it, it should outperform Deadpool easily.

Hotel Artemis failed so hard....
Another interesting tidbit is that it seems Infinity War is not going to beat Black Panther. Going by this list: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=marvelopeners.htm Black Panther had $665m after weekend eight and Infinity War is now sitting at $664m after eight weekends (and it's trending downwards faster than Black Panther)

Also it seems Incredibles 2 might be the #2 of the summer. I doubt Jurassic World is going to beat it.

I still want to see Hotel Artemis though, if it makes it over here.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
author=Shinan
Another interesting tidbit is that it seems Infinity War is not going to beat Black Panther. Going by this list: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=marvelopeners.htm Black Panther had $665m after weekend eight and Infinity War is now sitting at $664m after eight weekends (and it's trending downwards faster than Black Panther)

Also it seems Incredibles 2 might be the #2 of the summer. I doubt Jurassic World is going to beat it.

I still want to see Hotel Artemis though, if it makes it over here.

JW2 got a 150m opening, so likely not, but that'll probably propel it into 3rd place. Incredibles 2 is doing exceptionally well. Also, Black Panther had some legs - while Infinity War had a stronger opening, BP was going strong for much longer like you said. 30m is a lot of ground to make up for Infinity war; not impossible, but unlikely.

Also, wtf is up with the Minions movie raking in dough (in this Top Animated Showdown)? That movie was terrible.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=topanimated.htm

kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
Teen Titans GO To The Movies was fucking awesome. I loved it! I laughed out loud constantly. Even the Stan Lee cameo was great.
Alright so August is upon us and this thing is coming to a close. Only a couple of big movies left this summer.

So... What's the standings right now? Let's check it out. (this is without international dark horses, though a quick look while I was writing showed that the only technical international dark horse point would be my "some chinese movie no-ones heard of", though in this case it's called Dying to Survive)

1. kentona, 58 points
2. Shinan, 57 points
3. KrimsonKatt, 55 points
4. Dyhalto, 52 points
5. Cap_H, 51 points
6. pianotm, 50 points
7. kory_toombs, 45 points
8. ModeGone, 33 points
(Current top10: 1.Avengers, 2.Incredibles, 3.Jurassic World, 4.Deadpool, 5.Solo, 6.Ant-Man, 7.Ocean's 8, 8.Hotel Transylvania, 9.Mamma Mia, 10.Book Club)


It's a pretty tight race, though the numbers are going to change when Mission Impossible cracks the top10 (which it will in a week or so). The real big questions left of the seasons are really how high Mamma Mia (currently #9) and Mission Impossible (currently #13) will climb.

And the big upcoming releases are probably Christopher Robin and The Meg. Though Slenderman and Crazy Rich Asians were also on a couple of lists and is still upcoming.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
If I only included Ant-Man on my list. Looks like Shinanite is the only one who can (and probably will) hit all ten films.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
I greatly overestimated both Solo and Teen Titans Go, but damn, TTG was a fantastic movie. I want to watch it again.
Only a couple of weeks left and the rise of Mission Impossible 6 has changed the scores around a bit so right now:

1. kentona, 69 points
2. Shinan, 66 points
3. KrimsonKatt, 62 points
4. Cap_H, 61 points
5. Dyhalto, 60 points
6. kory_toombs, 59 points
7. pianotm, 56 points
8. ModeGone, 34 points
(current top10: Avengers 3, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2, Deadpool 2, Solo, Ant-Man 2, Mission Impossible 6, Hotel Transylvania 3, Ocean's 8, Mamma Mia 2)

It is incredibly tight, places 3-6 are all within four points!

Now The Meg had a crazy opening weekend with numbers above Mamma Mia 2, Ocean's 8 and Hotel Transylvania 3. The question is, is that enough to carry it into the top10 in the time that remains?

The other question is will Mission Impossible 6 beat Ant-Man 2 in time? There's a 40 million gap right now, but should it overtake Ant-Man a lot of the scores will change.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
I still maintain that Teen Titans Go! To The Movies is one of the best films of the year
I'm pretty sure Teen Titans GO! To the Movies won't even have a theatrical release here.

Now. There's only one weekend left before the wager ends and...

Nothing has changed since my last post.

However, things might still change
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/seasonal/?view=releasedate&yr=2018&season=Summer
Mission Impossible 6 is unlikely to pass Ant-Man 2 the gap is 20million and MI6 only caught up about 10 million over the last week.
BUT The Meg is closing in hard on Mamma Mia 2, the difference right now is 10 million which is a bit less than The Meg caught up last weekend. Considering an average drop of 50% per week it'll be a close call.

However that said. No matter what happens with The Meg and Mamma Mia it seems kentona is still the winner. Again. It's clear that kentona has all the movie knowledge and is a god of the movies.

The only way kentona won't win is if in fact Mission Impossible 6 overtakes Ant-Man. Then I will win instead. So... Go Mission Impossible!

EDIT:
I didn't notice that Ant-man 2 is only 2mil away from Solo, so if it managed to overtake Solo all kinds of crazy stuff could happen that I did not account for.
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
ooooh, this year the movie challenge is coming down to the wire! How is the Crazy Rich Asians performing? I hear that it's up to 76m. It might have the legs to take over The Meg and Mamma Mia. I had it in my international darkhorses list, but honestly I don't understand how that scores.
International scores if it doesn't make regular top10 but does make non-american top10 (so if Crazy Rich Asians did all its money overseas and almost none in North America, it'd score)

Though Crazy Rich Asians right now has 90% of its moneys from the US so, it's not looking like a huge international hit :)

Also if Crazy Rich Asians had a couple more weeks of time it could possibly make it into the top 10 because it dropped only 5% over its second weekend. So a third equally strong weekend would put it close to 100m and close to the top 10.

Also the international top 10 (not including the US) right now would be:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. Incredibles 2
4. Deadpool 2
5. Mission Impossible: Fallout
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
7. The Meg
8. Hotel Transylvania 3
9. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
10. Skyscraper
The ones in bold could score if they were picked as international dark horses, being two movies that is not in the North America top 10, but is in the international one.


I could swear there was a Chinese movie on that top10 in the past and very high... And digging a bit I found Dying To Survive which apparently has 450mil in China but a foreign total of 200mil. This I guess is why the movie wager sticks with NA numbers because they are... probably more accurate...

EDIT: Here's a second Chinese hit: Hello Mr. Billionaire 356mil, would put it in the international top10 no problem.

EDIT2:

Here's the Finnish top 10 summer movies, just because I stumbled upon it on Boxofficemojo and for fun:
1. Mamma Mia 2
2. Avengers 3
3. Deadpool 2
4. Solo
5. Jurassic World 2
6. Hotel Transylvania 3
7. Mission Impossible 6
8. BlacKkKlansman
9. Ant-man 2
10. Hereditary
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6288
The Meg overtaking Mamma Mia would move me down quite significantly. Yeah, I guess I went little too wild with the way I underestimated Ant-Man. Also, what is quite disappointing is that we got nothing like Dunkirk this year. All ten films are sequels (with a chance of the meg getting on the list. That film is only original in its name).
kentona
only 90s kids will like this admin
20496
So, do you end it after that last weekend, or after the last movies had an honest shot at their full theatrical run? Last year, it didn't matter because things were practically settled by the beginning of August, but this year we've had a stronger August. Because Ant-Man might not overtake Solo next weekend, but it very likely will in 2 or 3 weeks.
The cutoff date is the cutoff date. It's always something to take into account when making the list, if a movie that opens in August has enough time to make it into the top10.

And it makes it more exciting because given time it's obvious Ant-Man is going to beat Solo and The Meg beat Mamma Mia. And a couple of other things. (given enough time MI6 might beat Solo also)

(it also makes things less exciting I guess since you're going to win no matter what...)