SUMMER MOVIE WAGER

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SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323


=Better movie.

Most of these movies are Disney trademarked.
This sucks.
Disney owns everything so we just need to bow down to our overlords.

Anyway I made my list. It's pretty boring as lists go because it seems like everyone agrees on what movies will make the top 10. Except that by the end of summer we'll all be wrong.

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. Mission: Impossible: Fallout
7. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. Hotel Transylvania 3
10. Ocean's 8

Dark Horses:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
The Meg
Disney's Christopher Robin

International Dark Horses:
Hotel Artemis
Mamma Mia 2
Some Chinese movie no one's heard of.
Wait. I thought the "dark horses" were supposed to ve the international ones.
There are two dark horses. I guess it is a bit confusing and I guess I can drop it for next year. But the idea is that in the original rules there are three dark horses that could maybe make the top 10 (1 point each).

But for fun I thought of international dark horses which are movies that don't make it to the US top 10 but does make it to the non-US top 10.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
Hm, both Kentona and Shinan have very logical lists. Shinan getting a free point for that chinese film, might actually turn out to be important.
Also, look at results of ocen's 12 and 13. That's why it's not on my list.
Actually looking it Ocean's 12 & 13, they made little over 100 million and the #10 movie last year made 115million. So if Ocean's 8 makes the same as Ocean's 13 it'll sit nicely at #10. Though the Ocean's movies have been going downhill, 180m for 11, 125m for 12, 115m for 13. I still think that 8 might do at least as well as 13 if it "hits its demographic" :).

EDIT:
Another thing that is... really something to think about I guess.

Avengers 1: 600m
Avengers 2: 450m
Rogue One: 500m
Deadpool: 350m

"Sequels" to these movies come out literally the same month. One of them will have to lose.
author=Shinan
There are two dark horses. I guess it is a bit confusing and I guess I can drop it for next year. But the idea is that in the original rules there are three dark horses that could maybe make the top 10 (1 point each).

But for fun I thought of international dark horses which are movies that don't make it to the US top 10 but does make it to the non-US top 10.

Oh. I thought the dark horses were just International ones. I will edit my post.

author=Shinan
Actually looking it Ocean's 12 & 13, they made little over 100 million and the #10 movie last year made 115million. So if Ocean's 8 makes the same as Ocean's 13 it'll sit nicely at #10. Though the Ocean's movies have been going downhill, 180m for 11, 125m for 12, 115m for 13. I still think that 8 might do at least as well as 13 if it "hits its demographic" :).

EDIT:
Another thing that is... really something to think about I guess.

Avengers 1: 600m
Avengers 2: 450m
Rogue One: 500m
Deadpool: 350m

"Sequels" to these movies come out literally the same month. One of them will have to lose.

I am surprised they are all so back-to-back like that. I would have pushed Deadpool 2 to August and Solo to July, if it were up to me.
Deadpool sort of makes sense because it's not a Disney movie (yet. I guess when the Disney acquisition of Fox is complete it would be). Avengers they already moved to one week earlier than it was supposed to.

But Disney's big movie schedule is basically pretty packed as it is:
April 27: Avengers 3
May 25: Solo
June 16: The Incredibles 2
July 6: Ant-Man
August 3: Christopher Robin

They are all basically one month apart.
well, I doubt there is much overlap in the Deadpool and Winnie the Pooh crowds...
KrimsonKatt
Gamedev by sunlight, magical girl by moonlight
3326
This is my first time, here we go!

1: Avengers: Infinity War
2: Solo: A Star Wars Story
3: Incredibles 2
4: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5: Deadpool 2
6: Ant Man and the Wasp
7: Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
8: Mission Impossible: Fallout
9: Teen Titans GO to the Movies
10: Disney's Christopher Robin

Dark Horse
1: Sicario: Day of the Soldado
2: Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

(p.s. was going to pick Slenderman for #10 until I remembered that creepypastas are dead (XuX) lol)
Top 10 summer movies
1. The Incredibles 2
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Solo : A Star Wars Story
4. Deadpool 2
5. 6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
6. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
7. Hotel Transylvania 3
8. Teen Titans GO to the Movies
9. Ocean's Eight
10. Mission Impossible 6: Fallout

International dark horse
1. Sicario: Day of the Soldado
2. Crazy Rich Asians
3. Hotel Artemis

Regular Dark Horse
1. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
2. The First Purge
3. Skyscraper
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

@Dyhalto = I really doubt that #1 slot is going to happen.

I'm going to double down and estimate that not only will Avengers 3 win #1 for this summer, it will out gross Avatar, and become #1 grossing movie of all time.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
I think they won't.
I think Infinity War might have trouble beating Black Panther at the US box office. But it will still be #1 overall.
Yeah, I'm just crapshooting. I figured I'd be different.
author=Cap_H
I think they won't.

I think they will.
author=kentona
The Last Jedi was awesome. #2 or 3 Star Wars film.

Who even are you people?

We're people who actually understand the Star Wars franchise.

  • Rose was complete garbage. Same for Holdo. I literally could do a The Last Jedi with all scenes with her in it, and the movie would visibly improve. Let's review: Social justice warrior with purple hair and a thing for Leia, didn't add anything. Neither did perky loser preaching to us about how rich people are evil because they build fighter ships, or freeing random beasts from a racing track (ruining their owner's livelihood btw). Not one of these scenes added ANYTHING of value to film.
  • Force ghosts interacting in the physical world. Do you REALLY want to open that can of worms? Force ghosts fighting each other, or evil force ghosts attacking people?
  • Rey, Luke, and Kylo Ren were awesome. They could have most of the people in the Republic zoomed out and focused more on them. I liked the Jedi religious stuff. I liked the battles. Fine.
  • The other movies usually had more of a sense of scope. Like several different planets. Instead we had the Republic (sorry "Resistance") trapped in a small area for like 3/4 of the movie, Rey in one planet most of the movie, it felt kinda less like an epic movie and more like an episode in daytime TV.
  • The completely ridiculous bomber plan. This "plan" appeared to serve the purpose of getting the guy demoted. There was no reason why a seasoned pilot would do such a lame strategy.
  • Also, apparently, space has gravity.
  • Leia's Mary Poppins maneuver. Apparently space has air.

Wtf? You liked this movie?!?

For the record, I have rated the Star Wars in order of how good they are.
1. Empire Strikes Back - We first saw Jedi stuff for real, the Yoda scenes are iconic, and they have the "I am your father" scene. Not much to hate.
2. Return of the Jedi - Kinda wraps up the first trilogy nicely, plus there are good fight scenes and the whole Emperor scene where he's trying to turn Luke is pretty awesome.
3. Force Awakens- I actually liked this. I found it extremely true to the vision of Star Wars despite Rey being totally Mary Sue.
4. A New Hope- It's alright. It's a little slow in places, where they kinda set stuff up, but still enjoyable.
5. Revenge of the Sith- It's alright. It was kinda weak in the area about why Anakin suddenly turned, largely because I... well, see Attack of the Clones. I missed the reason he turned in the first place.
6. Phantom Menace- Jar Jar Binks. Other than that, it's an okay movie.
7. Attack of the Clones- Somehow I missed the entire third act, from where Anakin was late to his mom's death, to the absolutely stupid-looking CGI battle where 2/3 of the ppl looked superimposed. It must have been when I fell asleep due to their wooden romance acting.
8. Last Jedi- That's right. Rose is officially WORSE than Jar Jar Binks!

Rogue One is a 4.5, btw. It was good, but entirely too slow.
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
@bulma, Attack of the Clones doesn't really explain it too well, either. The Clone Wars TV series (both of them) go a long way to explaining why Anakin fell. Those were the prequel trilogy we should have had. The only one I really didn't like was Attack of the Clones. The Star Wars movie has had romance here and there, but Attack of the Clones forgot it was an action movie half-way in and turned into a cheap romance. One thing I will say about Attack of the Clones is that it had some half-way decent action scenes. The speeder chase in Coruscant was plenty of fun, and the lightsaber duel between Dooku and Anakin is one of my favorites (all of the other lightsaber action in that movie, including the duel between Yoda and Dooku, is absolutely ridiculous). Episode III was actually a decent movie, but it skipped way too much story (that was covered in The Clone Wars).

I didn't see The Last Jedi, so I don't have an opinion on it. I know it made 1.3 billion dollars in theaters, but it's merchandising was one of the biggest flops in Disney and Star Wars history. When The Last Jedi came out, Hasbro's toy sales slumped 21 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/hasbro-reports-fourth-quarter-earnings-2017.html
Adam Jeffrey
The force was not with Hasbro during the holidays.

The toymaker said Wednesday that sales of "Star Wars" and "Frozen" toys lagged during the fourth quarter.


21 percent! Holy shit! Some companies wouldn't even be able to recover from that! Damned good thing Disney owns them, huh?

Put on top of that the fact that EA made a decision that was like a sucker punch to Disney.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/28/eas-day-of-reckoning-is-here-after-star-wars-game-uproar.html
EA's stock is down 8.5 percent month to date through Tuesday compared with the S&P 500's 2 percent gain, wiping out $3.1 billion of shareholder value. Its competitors Take-Two and Activision Blizzard shares are up 5 percent and 0.7 percent respectively during the same time period.


3.1 billion dollars of shareholder value.

3.1 BILLION DOLLARS! That was EA's loss over Battlefront 2.

Finally, that 1.3 billion dollars that The Last Jedi made in theaters? https://www.investopedia.com/news/disneys-last-jedi-box-office-sales-lower-wall-street-expectations/

Hmm...Disney seems to think there's a problem. Disney has confirmed that they think that The Last Jedi performed poorly in theaters. I don't think it did--I sure wish I could do as poorly as 1.3 billion dollars--but Disney has a better view of what's going on than people on the outside, and it's pretty certain that toy sales and the EA nightmare is factoring heavily into why Disney thinks The Last Jedi performed poorly, because in toy sales, it performed abysmally. People are saying that The Last Jedi toy sales accelerated Toys R' Us's bankruptcy.

But how does Solo: A Star Wars Story figure into all of this? It's the movie that comes out right after The Last Jedi and a fluctuation between 47 and 48 percent on Rotten Tomatoes is not a vocal minority. It's a movie that nobody wanted. It's a movie that will replace Harrison Ford as Han Solo. It's a movie that saw two directors fired, and the replacement director said that they had done good work and that he was going to use everything they filmed--go on, Kathleen, fire Ron Howard; I dare you. Disney has no confidence in it. Also, Rogue One didn't do nearly as much as The Force Awakens, and big reason is probably that it was one of the new Anthology films. Non-saga Star Wars rarely gets the same audience the main trilogies do. The Clone Wars, Rebels, and Knights of the Old Republic generally has a much smaller following.

I hated Rogue One at first. But after I had time to think of it, it wasn't a really bad movie. I just had too really big problems with it: the main character was so unlikeable and the rest of the characters were so inconsistent, and the fan service with Darth Vader at the end, which totally undermines him in A New Hope. I mean, you see Rogue One, and then you immediately go and see A New Hope, and he shows none of the skills that you see him using Rogue One. It's an awesome scene, done for the cool factor, that ultimately serves to show that Vader is mostly incompetent in the Original Trilogy. That doesn't help the franchise, it hurts it. Some character consistency would be nice. Other than that, it's actually a fun heist movie when I view it a second time. I mean, I have no faith in the characters. Any developement they have is totally unearned, particularly Jan Ors...oops, I mean Jyn Erso (It's true. All of it.
They actually intended Jyn Erso as a discount Jan Ors. I was floored when I learned that. I mean, I saw the similarities in the names, but I didn't expect that it was actually deliberate, especially considering how little Jyn has in common with Jan.).

I also really liked The Force Awakens. I have complaints about it too, but this post has been long enough.

TL;DR, Solo: A Star Wars Story could be an awesome movie, but jilted fans have an ax to grind and Solo was never going to take in main trilogy numbers to begin with.
Responses in blue.

author=pianotm
@bulma, Attack of the Clones doesn't really explain it too well, either. The Clone Wars TV series (both of them) go a long way to explaining why Anakin fell. Those were the prequel trilogy we should have had. The only one I really didn't like was Attack of the Clones. The Star Wars movie has had romance here and there, but Attack of the Clones forgot it was an action movie half-way in and turned into a cheap romance. One thing I will say about Attack of the Clones is that it had some half-way decent action scenes. The speeder chase in Coruscant was plenty of fun, and the lightsaber duel between Dooku and Anakin is one of my favorites (all of the other lightsaber action in that movie, including the duel between Yoda and Dooku, is absolutely ridiculous). Episode III was actually a decent movie, but it skipped way too much story (that was covered in The Clone Wars).

I knew I should have watched more of that cartoon.

I didn't see The Last Jedi, so I don't have an opinion on it. I know it made 1.3 billion dollars in theaters, but it's merchandising was one of the biggest flops in Disney and Star Wars history. When The Last Jedi came out, Hasbro's toy sales slumped 21 percent.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/hasbro-reports-fourth-quarter-earnings-2017.html
Adam Jeffrey
The force was not with Hasbro during the holidays.

The toymaker said Wednesday that sales of "Star Wars" and "Frozen" toys lagged during the fourth quarter.

It also tanked on rotten tomatoes, having the critics love it, and the audience nearly 50% below. https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_the_last_jedi/ A big portion of this was due to endless special interest pandering (uhhh, let's see "we need more minorities" even though at the 80s they were franchise that had no problem having ppl like Lando in pretty leading roles, that apparently wasn't enough so they basically also did white shaming, making the heirs to the Empire basically all look like Neo-Nazis and the "resistance" super-diverse; I gather they don't know that pointing out how not racist you are is kinda racist by itself), illogical nonsense (the Force no longer follows any rules and bombs can apparently drop in space), and having most of the plot threads from the Force Awakens abandoned so Rian Johnson could pursue his "vision."

21 percent! Holy shit! Some companies wouldn't even be able to recover from that! Damned good thing Disney owns them, huh?

Put on top of that the fact that EA made a decision that was like a sucker punch to Disney.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/28/eas-day-of-reckoning-is-here-after-star-wars-game-uproar.html
EA's stock is down 8.5 percent month to date through Tuesday compared with the S&P 500's 2 percent gain, wiping out $3.1 billion of shareholder value. Its competitors Take-Two and Activision Blizzard shares are up 5 percent and 0.7 percent respectively during the same time period.

3.1 billion dollars of shareholder value.

3.1 BILLION DOLLARS! That was EA's loss over Battlefront 2.

Finally, that 1.3 billion dollars that The Last Jedi made in theaters? https://www.investopedia.com/news/disneys-last-jedi-box-office-sales-lower-wall-street-expectations/

Hmm...Disney seems to think there's a problem. Disney has confirmed that they think that The Last Jedi performed poorly in theaters. I don't think it did--I sure wish I could do as poorly as 1.3 billion dollars--but Disney has a better view of what's going on than people on the outside, and it's pretty certain that toy sales and the EA nightmare is factoring heavily into why Disney thinks The Last Jedi performed poorly, because in toy sales, it performed abysmally. People are saying that The Last Jedi toy sales accelerated Toys R' Us's bankruptcy.

It's because it DID do poorly. Okay, on paper, it looks like Last Jedi did huge.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Wars#tab=summary
Not as good as The Force Awakens, but better than most other Star Wars films, right? Wrong.

There's something called inflation.
http://www.in2013dollars.com/1977-dollars-in-2017
$100 back then was worth about $400 today. So, let's review.
$786,598,007 Episode 4 x 4 = $3,146,392,028.
Episode 5, after inflation is $1,586,866,716.03.
Episode 6, after inflation is $1,407,531,982.61
Episode 1 is $1,509,040,566.05 after inflation.
In other words, the first four films clearly outperformed the Last Jedi. And this includes those with Jar Jar. More disconcerting however was that it was actually PULLED from Chinese theater.

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/star-wars-the-last-jedi-china-box-office-pulled-a8164186.html


But how does Solo: A Star Wars Story figure into all of this? It's the movie that comes out right after The Last Jedi and a fluctuation between 47 and 48 percent on Rotten Tomatoes is not a vocal minority. It's a movie that nobody wanted. It's a movie that will replace Harrison Ford as Han Solo. It's a movie that saw two directors fired, and the replacement director said that they had done good work and that he was going to use everything they filmed--go on, Kathleen, fire Ron Howard; I dare you. Disney has no confidence in it. Also, Rogue One didn't do nearly as much as The Force Awakens, and big reason is probably that it was one of the new Anthology films. Non-saga Star Wars rarely gets the same audience the main trilogies do. The Clone Wars, Rebels, and Knights of the Old Republic generally has a much smaller following.

I hated Rogue One at first. But after I had time to think of it, it wasn't a really bad movie. I just had too really big problems with it: the main character was so unlikeable and the rest of the characters were so inconsistent, and the fan service with Darth Vader at the end, which totally undermines him in A New Hope. I mean, you see Rogue One, and then you immediately go and see A New Hope, and he shows none of the skills that you see him using Rogue One. It's an awesome scene, done for the cool factor, that ultimately serves to show that Vader is mostly incompetent in the Original Trilogy. That doesn't help the franchise, it hurts it. Some character consistency would be nice. Other than that, it's actually a fun heist movie when I view it a second time. I mean, I have no faith in the characters. Any developement they have is totally unearned, particularly Jan Ors...oops, I mean Jyn Erso (It's true. All of it.
They actually intended Jyn Erso as a discount Jan Ors. I was floored when I learned that. I mean, I saw the similarities in the names, but I didn't expect that it was actually deliberate, especially considering how little Jyn has in common with Jan.).

I also really liked The Force Awakens. I have complaints about it too, but this post has been long enough.

TL;DR, Solo: A Star Wars Story could be an awesome movie, but jilted fans have an ax to grind and Solo was never going to take in main trilogy numbers to begin with.

Didn't watch Solo. I'm taking a hiatus from Star Wars, hoping Disney will get the memo.

Rogue One was alright. I liked Force Awakens for the most part.

After a year or so, I may watch Solo on Netflix.