[MAFIA] TREACHEROUS - GAME OVER

Posts

author=Gourd_Clae
I'm a little paranoid piano *is* scum but I think leaving it up to Blue to find out works out just fine.


He's seems pretty screwed if he is. He can't lie about detecting, and he can't kill the other detective (at least not quickly) without being super suspicious. I think it's not that productive to plan for Piano being scum right now.
author=Gourd_Clae
I see what you're saying and generally agree I just don't know why no lynch is better than killing someone confirmed not blue.


If we mislynch town today, and then mislynch town tomorrow, that'll be the endgame on d4 with 3 town and 1 scum alive.

If we do nothing today, then mislynch twice, that'll be the endgame on d5 with 2 town and 1 scum alive.

Additionally, as long as Blue and Piano are both alive, we'll be better informed on what to do tomorrow because someone's name will be cleared (and probably someone else will be dead but oh well). Nokill is the optimal strategy if the bodyguard was a real doctor, for sure, and even as they are I'm still pretty sure this is the best plan because we have an even number of people.


@Emily: scum-Piano isn't in /that/ bad a spot if he can just keeps killing the people who get investigated to keep the suspect pool large.
If Piano survives while others are night killed, that sounds like a reason to lynch Piano. It would just be too suspicious on both fronts, since I can't imagine non-detective scum would be OK with letting that go on either.

If the scum is detective blue, then getting more investigations doesn't change much for them other than possibly having to convince Piano not to investigate them, so keeping Piano alive doesn't do them much good.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Everyone has posted now, right?

In that case, piano is for sure not lying about detective results since he hasn't been contradicted. This also means piano is not lying about Blue not telling their name.

Also, scum has withheld kill for sure since the Monk hasn't come forward.

I don't really agree with Blue's reasoning to investigate me. If anything, Cave is the type of person who would yell at his scum partner even louder than he would at scum. But I appreciate being confirmed, I suppose.

It's looking more likely that one of the detectives is scum. Non-detective scum opting to nokill over neutralizing a town cop team seems so sub-optimal that I have trouble believing it. But since Monk hasn't come forward, scum must have nokilled.

I feel a bit better about Ozzy and demon today, mostly demon. Scum demon would have no reason to assassinate the most likely mislynch target other than appearing town by doing so. I'm not wholly opposed to lynching them for being confirmed not Blue, though, since they still have done some scummy things. Especially Ozzy should not be alive in endgame.

Yesterday I said I didn't think Cave-piano team was likely as that duel was risky without being able to communicate, but we are talking about Cave. He once almost got me lynched D1 before reading his PM and seeing he was my scum partner. Anything is possible. The CERTAIN INDIVIDUALS thing seems too blatant though. Would he really try to clue his scum partner in like that? Cave is unpredictable, but not an idiot.

I feel pretty good about psy, and haven't really seen any scum intent in him all game.

Cap hasn't been around enough, Gourd I cannot read as always, and Emily is under the radar for me. Her D2 posts seem a bit better than her D1 posts.
author=Jeroen_Sol
I feel pretty good about psy, and haven't really seen any scum intent in him all game.


I really do not like the combo lynch/guard, especially being the hammer (although I'm willing to accept he might not have realized that would hammer guard).
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
Still few posts behind, but some of my notes:
-Why does Ozzy have an urge to mention that he's town in all of his posts? This makes me feel little iffy about him. I'm definitely not against lynching him as that's another thing in his posts, which pinged me as scummy. I guarded him, but I didn't expect piano to hammer right after.
-Gourd's case and presence feel way better now. Also, I'm sorry for misreading his previous post. My engrish is still far from perfect and I thought that peg down and pin down are synonymous.
-PSY's case is leaking. MYLO/LYLO argument is far from strong. As there are still factors (monk, no hammer), which can take the game in lylo. Also, ideally we're not taking the game so far. He himself guarded Ozzy, so it feels little hypocritical to suspect me and piano for saving him. It reminds me of Cave's mafia strats a little.
Mafia usually has daychat on other sites too.

I joke-guarded first post today, without thinking I'd have to cancel, given how scummy Ozzy was. It was Cap who hammered (with an assist from piano) and happened in the span of ~5 posts.

Agree with Jero that investigating him was a weak move from Blue. @Piano, were Jero and I the only two names mentioned as candidates? I was on Cave before he even claimed and would've been an even weaker investigate target. I'm willing to consider Blue-is-scum theory -- it'd make sense to keep Piano alive if they fed him useless N1 investigate targets and were confident they could murder Piano in the night if ever forced to investigate anyone useful. Maybe they forgot about the bodyguard haha.
oh, sorry Cap, it /was/ piano that hammered. I'm still mad at both of you though haha.
Is it possible that monk didn't come forward for other reasons? Like thinking blue was scum (and thus putting piano in danger/outing themselves unnecessarily?) or because the monk themself was scum?
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
author=Jeroen_Sol
If anything, Cave is the type of person who would yell at his scum partner even louder than he would at scum.

...than he would at town, that is.

psy didn't hammer the guard. He was the first to guard and tried to cancel when the other guards came in. I don't see this as suspicious. The bandwagoners are far more suspicious.

Yeah, one of blue or piano could very well be scum. If neither of them is, then the nokill is just baffling.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
If monk themself is scum, they still nokilled, so that conclusion doesn't change.
It was impressive how quickly ozzy got defended considering how scummy he looked. I still wouldn't be opposed to an ozzy lynch either. Given the situation, I don't really think it's fair to pin guarding on psy though. He's right in those three actual intentional guards came extremely quickly. Nobody could have foreseen that given the situation.

Biggest problem is I have nobody I particularly want to lynch right now except for ozzy. Leaving in all the possible det. blue suspects does make sense to me in that it makes it that much harder for scum to find them while we investigate piano. Piano is cop and one of the two is mostly town, jeroen is confirmed at this point, and gourd has been playing well. Psy's thing was weird, but I don't think it was particularly scummy given he only lead with it as a joke. Cap and emily I have no strong feelings about yet. I'm not particularly against lynching them, but maybe not on this day phase.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
With 8 living players, it takes 5 votes to hammer.
Votecount:

Not voting: 8 - pianotm, Jeroen_Sol, Cap_H, Gourd_Clae, demonlord5000, AlaskanEmily, OzzyTheOne, psy_wombats
OzzyTheOne 0 - psy_wombats

Town has voted to guard OzzyTheOne
Guarding Votecount:

Not Guarding: 4 - Jeroen_Sol, Gourd_Clae, demonlord5000, AlaskanEmily
Guarding: 4 - psy_wombats, OzzyTheOne, Cap_H, pianotm

Day 2 ends on Friday 12th of July, 19:00 CEST.
There are 34 hours and 27 minutes remaining.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
author=Gourd_Clae
Is it possible that monk didn't come forward for other reasons? Like thinking blue was scum (and thus putting piano in danger/outing themselves unnecessarily?) or because the monk themself was scum?


Scum monk probably would benefit from trying to make themselves look like a target and build a strategy around it. They probably would opt for killing an outed informative role, tho. The other think to consider is that only me or Emily could be targeted and survive as monks. Neither of us was in clear enough to earn it.

Blue being scum makes more mechanical sense here. Jero being a peeked villager is a good thing, but I think that we all can agree he's one of the less mislynchable players here. So, sparse communication with piano and the target selected suggests that Blue's the scum.

Now, this isn't the only scenario. I can also imagine someone less active being the blue cop and town. So, It's not quite time for the mass claim. It probably will be tomorrow with little more information on wild cards.

Also, I think Demon is clear as he's the one going for more straightforward strats usually.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
It might be Ozzy. I was little hasty with my vote, but i wanted to express my opinion there. I'm down to:
Ozzy, Gourd, Psy and Emily.

Emily is sitting on the sideline, not casting any votes and her opinions are vaguer than most. She also has some blue cop equity in my eyes.

Ozzy consistently includes wolfy bits in his posts and he doesn't follow an entirely meaningful (or paranoid) progression. Him casing piano makes him look better, but it might have been a wrong reason for me to guard him.

Psy and Gourd both posted quality content, but they're logical wolves, if neither of emily nor ozzy is scum.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
author=AlaskanEmily
Scum or not, Piano is in a rough position now. We know he can't really lie about detective work. Pretty much anyone being nightkilled other than him is seriously suspicious, so I question the wisdom in trying to lynching him right now.

author=AlaskanEmily
If Piano survives while others are night killed, that sounds like a reason to lynch Piano. It would just be too suspicious on both fronts, since I can't imagine non-detective scum would be OK with letting that go on either.

If the scum is detective blue, then getting more investigations doesn't change much for them other than possibly having to convince Piano not to investigate them, so keeping Piano alive doesn't do them much good.


These posts have a strong scent of agenda.
It sounds like a reasonable enough plan to me. There's no way I'm going after Emily today. Probably just demon or ozzy and demon looks pretty clean to me.

Also I'm definitely don't think we should be flushing Blue - the opposite, because if piano is scum, then murdering Blue is his top priority.

also @cap: thoughts on no-kill today?
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
I can see Emily's posts as potentially having an agenda, but I agree with psy that we shouldn't kill anyone who could be Blue right now.

The detectives should investigate each other the coming two nights, starting with piano, provided no detective dies next night. If piano is then confirmed and lives another day, Blue has no valid reason to withhold their identity to him anymore N3, so is safe to be investigated that night.

This plan kind of hinges on town bodyguard already having protected piano. If bodyguard isn't town or has protected someone else it's dangerous.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
I would rather have Lylo than Mylo too, but if we do end up in Mylo, nolynching should get us into Lylo.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
I'm not opposed to no Lynch, but I think that it should come in mylo.
I wanted argue for us getting another peek out of no Lynch but we probably would lose Jero or Piano (probably) Jero. Hopefully, bodyguard can make a right choice and catch the bullet. Also body snatcher and paparazzi would get more information.
I'm not 100% opposed but I'm more in favour of lynching.