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Oblic
Once a member of RMN, always a member of RMN!
1937
Hey All!

It's been a while since I've been active on here (a full time job, wife, house, and baby can be a bit distracting...), but I try to stop by a few times a year. I always get this weird sense of nostalgia mixed with a tinge of anxiety when I come by. I spent a lot of time here during one of the most stressful times in my life, so it was a comfort to have this place, and it tends to bring back the bad memories of those times (things are fine now, so no worries!). But the nostalgia bit always gets me. I remember all of the great (and some not-so-great) games that I have played that have made their way into this community. I remember thinking how lucky I was to be alive during a time that these games were all FREE and provided a wonderful distraction from life. I sometimes wonder if the nostalgia is blinding me to some of the errors and shortcomings these games had, or if they would still hold up to my standards. The point is, it floors me at what passes for PAID content these days.

I picked on Steam here because it is one of the biggest and most well-known gaming distribution services out there. That, and it's the one I am most familiar with (I have an EMBARRASSINGLY large game library...). Recently, I have been trying to put a tiny dent in the games I own, and since I don't have a lot of time to sink into a massive epic that might take hundreds of hours to finish, I have been sifting through some of the smaller RPGs. I would estimate that a good 10%-20% of my library is made up of these games (I have a bad habit of buying large bundles of cheap games), so there is a pretty wide selection. As I have been going through them and "completing" them to the best of my ability with my time available, I have been noticing something...

Most of these games, although fairly inexpensive, couldn't hold a candle to some of the gems made here! I won't really pick on anyone (good or bad) since this is mostly my opinion. But it pains me to see so many games being paid for that were clearly stamped out in a few weeks with minimal effort, while there is a treasure trove of games here. I totally understand why people do this; it's an easy money grab, and the risk is relatively low. The issue for me in a lot of ways is that it dilutes the pool of games out there, especially made with the RM engines. It gives great games that have that "RPGMaker" tag a bad name and reputation.

The big question that I would like to float out there is why this disparity between paid content and free content exists? Yes, I know that there are good paid games and bad free games. But I really feel like there is an imbalance between the two. To be more clear, I feel like a higher percentage of free games are better than the paid ones. I feel like part of it is the quick cash grab, but I would like to hear from some of the developers and creators out there.
unity
You're magical to me.
12540
I can only speak from my own experience, but I assume it might be because the skillsets needed to complete a game and the skillsets needed to market and sell a game are so very different. From personal experience, I have exactly one game on Steam (a team effort with Red Nova and Sooz), and even with a company's involvement in publishing it, it did very very poorly.

I think a lot of us here want to spend our time making the best games we can, but might not have the means, experience, or skillsets to promote our games on a platform like Steam. Personally, I want to spend my time making stuff, not figuring out to sell it, and with the crowded nature of the indie market I doubt I'd be able to break through regardless.

On the other hand, last I heard, the barrier to entry on Steam is still very low, and its not hard to just about anyone with the money needed for the Steam fee to churn out a sub-par RPG (often just using RTP, and, if you're lucky, maybe some custom face or bust art).

I want to stress that I'm not demeaning any dev who wants to earn money for their work or goes the commercial route. There are great RPG Maker games for purchase, my favorite of which is probably Jimmy and the Pulsating Mass. I have often thought of going the Steam route myself, but the older I get, the more it seems unlikely unless something changes with my situation.

But I feel like regardless of where you look, there's a glut of mediocre indie RPGs. Here, at least, you generally don't have to buy them, and can weed out ones you aren't enjoying pretty quickly. It's generally not that easy on Steam.

Just my take on the situation.
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

Hello, I'm a Steamworks Partner. (I use Visual Novel Maker.)

There's a huge amount of hentai RPG Maker games on Steam. I'm not sure if you can find that content here? Yes, there are normal RPG Maker games, ones without the Adult content, but they usually don't sell very well.

$100 is pretty cheap to publish your game on Steam, and you only need to get $1000 in net sales to get that money back. My view on success is as to weather you can recover the $100 plus whatever other expenses you had on the game. So far, with my previous 2 releases, I have made all the money I spent back.

An easier place to set up a game for sale is itch.io. But you'll not make very many sales there.

A thing to keep in mind. If your game is popular enough you can bet on it getting pirated. All 3 of my games, even the one I release this week, have been pirated. I guess that's another sign of success?
Marrend
Guardian of the Description Thread
21781
On the subject of marketing, I've maybe two commercial RPG Maker games in my Steam library. One is was a gift from the developers for being a beta-tester. The other I probably wouldn't have known about it it wasn't for noticing how Craze was constantly talking about it for a while. That was a mostly successful experiment, but, I wouldn't expect me to do that again any time soon.

I probably had Jimmy and the Pulsating Mass on my want list at some point, thanks to a few other games that were made by that developer. I was hyped for it for a while, but, cooled off for whatever reason? I can't really explain it.


Then again, I'm probably not the typical Steam user anyway. I don't jump on games just because they are cheap, or that they happen to be part of a sale going on. What I have done, though, is if there is a Steam game that happens to be on a console I own (currently PS4), that I've played and enjoyed, I might be tempted to get the Steam version. Granted, this tactic hasn't really panned out in a few years, but, it's how I've "researched" Steam games.
what my ego is hearing is that I should sell my games
I have a complicated relationship with selling my games commercially and the gist of it is that while it was one of the coolest things I've ever done in my life (Soma Spirits hit Steam in 2017, before Steam Direct) it also made developing games less fun, so I have not been developing my current project with commercialism dead-set in mind.

If you're not sure commercialism is the route you want to go in and want to start with something low risk, you can always test the waters by having a "name your own price" title on itch io to see if it goes anywhere.
Mirak
Stand back. Artist at work. I paint with enthusiasm if not with talent.
9300
$100 is pretty cheap to publish your game on Steam, and you only need to get $1000 in net sales to get that money back.
Can you elaborate a bit on this? I'm interested in knowing how steamworks eh, works, as an indie dev but the documentation I find is confusing.

There's a huge amount of hentai RPG Maker games on Steam. I'm not sure if you can find that content here? Yes, there are normal RPG Maker games, ones without the Adult content, but they usually don't sell very well.
"Smut sells" isn't a very revolutionary take on selling on steam imo, or even exclusive for rpg maker titles. I can literally open twine, make a "game" where all it is is a collection of pictures of my feet with a generic snake game overlayed on top and I'd be guaranteed to "make my money back" from exploiting the wide market of creeps and stupids, but I think the OP was talking about more tasteful ventures.

It's more than obvious by now that the only way to "make it" as a peddler of games of this genre is to accept it is extremely niche and that means the "returns" you'll get from them are as such. The only people willing to "give a chance" to serious rpg maker games that look the part of an rpg maker game aesthetic-wise, or promote the game by self-admittingly wearing the "made in rpg maker" mantle, are inevitably going to be people who were already invested in rpg maker to begin with because the stigma that was imprinted on the "rpg maker game" label thank to the shitpushers on steam is irremovable now and effectively makes people steer away from them. It's very "lol funi meme" to hate on rpg maker now, and as anything that becomes a meme, it is immediately adopted by the vox populi, even with those who hadn't even heard of rpg maker and indeed still don't know what it is.

In my case I'd like to go commercial on steam only for the pleasure of aiming for niches under niches. Anyone who's played or watched liberty play my games knows what I'm talking about. I'd be pretty content to have a few games as some sort of "piggybank" for idk, weed money. I'd fucking ADORE to put steam cards in it and make very cool art for each. To make kino quality badges the type people would like to display in their badge showcases in their profiles, i'd love to see it be peddled and bundled in fanatical and indiegala or whatever for people to purchase perhaps unwillingly, only to install it and go WHAT IS THIS!?, then maybe write a review detailing how receiving that game with a bundle of games they actually wanted was like finding a fun-size snickers hidden amongst a bundle of carrot sticks. Maybe i'm aiming low? Yeah. But I'd rather truly put marketing effort in selling my custom asset development services and asset bundles which are incredibly more fulfilling both to produce and work with business-wise anyway.

Actually ideally i wouldn't even publish them myself i'd be fine with giving the 100 bux back to whoever allowed me to satisfy that hideous craving once the sales slooooowly pile up until that amount was reached lmao.
Oblic
Once a member of RMN, always a member of RMN!
1937
author=unity
I want to stress that I'm not demeaning any dev who wants to earn money for their work or goes the commercial route. There are great RPG Maker games for purchase, my favorite of which is probably Jimmy and the Pulsating Mass. I have often thought of going the Steam route myself, but the older I get, the more it seems unlikely unless something changes with my situation.

Totally agree here. It's almost any gamer's dream to make their own game and do it for a living. And, I can't really fault anyone that figured out the system of making money from these games. I also never thought about the marketing aspect of selling a game, which can't be cheap or easy....

author=Mirak
$100 is pretty cheap to publish your game on Steam, and you only need to get $1000 in net sales to get that money back.
Can you elaborate a bit on this? I'm interested in knowing how steamworks eh, works, as an indie dev but the documentation I find is confusing.

I'd be interested in hearing about this more as well... I've heard that recently (maybe past 2 or 3 years) Steam has become VERY accessible to a much wider audience. Maybe this is part of it...?

author=Mirak
There's a huge amount of hentai RPG Maker games on Steam. I'm not sure if you can find that content here? Yes, there are normal RPG Maker games, ones without the Adult content, but they usually don't sell very well.
"Smut sells" isn't a very revolutionary take on selling on steam imo, or even exclusive for rpg maker titles. I can literally open twine, make a "game" where all it is is a collection of pictures of my feet with a generic snake game overlayed on top and I'd be guaranteed to "make my money back" from exploiting the wide market of creeps and stupids, but I think the OP was talking about more tasteful ventures.

It is interesting the number of "H games" that seemed to have proliferated through Steam in the past 5 years or so though... And it's curious that the RM engines seem to be one of the more popular routes taken. But, yes, I was mainly referring to "tasteful games" haha.


author=kentona
what my ego is hearing is that I should sell my games

YES, PLEASE! If there were a (legal) steam version of Hero's Realm, I'd snap that baby up in a heartbeat! I'd probably also try to get 4 teams of lvl 99 again. XD

EDIT: HOLY BALLS, I JUST FOUND THE HEROIC EDITION!

In all seriousness though, I'd love to see more of the games I've really enjoyed on here get a bit of a makeover and onto Steam. Some of the more well-known horror titles (Witch's House and Mad Father to name a couple) have found their way over there, and it was an absolute joy to play them again. And I love knowing that I am FINALLY giving something back to the creators that brought me so much joy.
If you grab a list of 50 random games at rmn, and 50 random steam rm games, I can say fairly assuredly that the 50 random steam games will, on average, be better. Because a bad, free game, will be instantly ignored and nobody will know it exists. People know a bad paid game exists, and will be outraged for it.
And there's a reasonable amount of good commercial RM games out there.

That being said, people who make free games tend to go a lot wilder, there's still the remnants of the "oh no making money is wrong" mentality affecting much of the community even as we march on to the third decade of official RPG Maker in the west, etc.

Aaaand the vast majority of RM games who were made, say, before 2012 (being conservative) are free. And so many legendary titles. Most of the games that remain archived being above average games, with poor jam games with nothing of interest being eaten by the black hole of the internet.

Anyway, quality aside, I think there's money to be made with RPG Maker as a tool, regardless, we're just very bad at that. It's a mixture of so many things though. I still haven't lost my faith in it. But it's 2020 and I haven't finished a serious game, so... At least I make asset packs and I think I'm learning a lot from them.
Like how I'll never make money from games because I take longer to finish a 20 monster pack than what I should take to make a full game in order to actually have a financially sustainable career with gamedev LOL
Oblic
Once a member of RMN, always a member of RMN!
1937
author=JosephSeraph
If you grab a list of 50 random games at rmn, and 50 random steam rm games, I can say fairly assuredly that the 50 random steam games will, on average, be better. Because a bad, free game, will be instantly ignored and nobody will know it exists. People know a bad paid game exists, and will be outraged for it.
And there's a reasonable amount of good commercial RM games out there.


I'm not sure I totally agree with this thought... at least in terms of the sampling (sorry, I'm nit-picking...). It's hard to compare the scale between the number of free games and RM games on Steam, but if you include ANYTHING that was started as a project, yea, you're right. The shear volume of games that have been made using any of the engines on a whim has to be staggering. Even though I feel like the market is become/has become somewhat saturated with sub-par commercial games, there aren't too many compared to the free pile.

BUT I think if you narrow down the free game selection to those that are considered complete by there creators, which still includes a TON of games, you would likely have a much fairer and closer comparison. I would even contend that the free games might edge out the paid ones.

Again, I fully admit that nostalgia may be blinding me, and I probably have pretty bad confirmation bias. I think part of my original point is I would LOVE to see more of some of the better content here make it to the commercial level (not that it necessarily makes it better; it would just be nice to have a reasonable way to give back).



jumping on to this thread (hope you don’t mind) but I would also love to see more RPG Maker developers I know / serious RPG Maker developers on RMN put their completed games up on steam, so long as they don’t mind paying the $100 entry fee.

most of this thread discusses putting up a commercial game on steam (which is understandable, since that’s what OP was originally discussing) and why going commercial on steam is hard (it is). but for people who still want to be able to share their game to more people (and potentially gain back that $100, or not lose it entirely) there’s also the option of putting up a free game on steam and offering paid dlc, such as a soundtrack, artbook, or even just a simple “thank you” donation page like Relic Hunters Zero.

i also want to stress that, once you’ve paid the $100 entry free, it’s ridiculously easy to put your game up on steam (and a dlc, whilst we're at it). it took me about 2 weekends to set up my first one overall (and that’s partially because since i wasn’t familiar with the documentation at all when I started, so it took longer). if anyone wants me to discuss the steam process more, pls lmk I’ll be happy to.
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

Maybe I should do a video of everything that's available in the Steamworks partner site??? But It's not really that hard to use, inmo. I think you'll need to be familiar with some additional tools as well, such as Gimp (or Photoshop) and some video recording program (use a free trial of Camtasia Studio.)

The hardest part for me was uploading my game using the SDK, which I have a written tutorial on. (Steam actually has a direct download option now for files below a certain size, so there's a way to even bypass this.)
unity
You're magical to me.
12540
author=ghosthunter
jumping on to this thread (hope you don’t mind) but I would also love to see more RPG Maker developers I know / serious RPG Maker developers on RMN put their completed games up on steam, so long as they don’t mind paying the $100 entry fee.

most of this thread discusses putting up a commercial game on steam (which is understandable, since that’s what OP was originally discussing) and why going commercial on steam is hard (it is). but for people who still want to be able to share their game to more people (and potentially gain back that $100, or not lose it entirely) there’s also the option of putting up a free game on steam and offering paid dlc, such as a soundtrack, artbook, or even just a simple “thank you” donation page like Relic Hunters Zero.

i also want to stress that, once you’ve paid the $100 entry free, it’s ridiculously easy to put your game up on steam (and a dlc, whilst we're at it). it took me about 2 weekends to set up my first one overall (and that’s partially because since i wasn’t familiar with the documentation at all when I started, so it took longer). if anyone wants me to discuss the steam process more, pls lmk I’ll be happy to.


Now this is an angle I hadn't considered before. This sounds like a really cool idea! :DDD

author=kory_toombs
Maybe I should do a video of everything that's available in the Steamworks partner site??? But It's not really that hard to use, inmo. I think you'll need to be familiar with some additional tools as well, such as Gimp (or Photoshop) and some video recording program (use a free trial of Camtasia Studio.)

The hardest part for me was uploading my game using the SDK, which I have a written tutorial on. (Steam actually has a direct download option now for files below a certain size, so there's a way to even bypass this.)


For whatever reason, the video part of this feels the most daunting to me for some reason. I guess I need to look into how to do that someday.
author=unity
author=ghosthunter
jumping on to this thread (hope you don’t mind) but I would also love to see more RPG Maker developers I know / serious RPG Maker developers on RMN put their completed games up on steam, so long as they don’t mind paying the $100 entry fee.

most of this thread discusses putting up a commercial game on steam (which is understandable, since that’s what OP was originally discussing) and why going commercial on steam is hard (it is). but for people who still want to be able to share their game to more people (and potentially gain back that $100, or not lose it entirely) there’s also the option of putting up a free game on steam and offering paid dlc, such as a soundtrack, artbook, or even just a simple “thank you” donation page like Relic Hunters Zero.

i also want to stress that, once you’ve paid the $100 entry free, it’s ridiculously easy to put your game up on steam (and a dlc, whilst we're at it). it took me about 2 weekends to set up my first one overall (and that’s partially because since i wasn’t familiar with the documentation at all when I started, so it took longer). if anyone wants me to discuss the steam process more, pls lmk I’ll be happy to.
Now this is an angle I hadn't considered before. This sounds like a really cool idea! :DDD


yeah, once I finish the whole remaster of HR and get it on there, I might just lob my other works very quickly onto there too, maybe even free (or super cheap like Helen's Mysterious Castle), just to increase exposure. Especially since I would have cleared the major hurdle of just getting onto Steam at all. I have a list of about 4 other games I could port too.

also, yes pls to the discuss Steam process.
Mirak
Stand back. Artist at work. I paint with enthusiasm if not with talent.
9300
Wait wait wait, is the 100 dollar fee a one-time payment for all games, or for every single one? (Or maybe kentona's just wealthy enough to lob 100's very quickly?) Because I always thought, even for free games, you had to pay 100. For every single one.
author=Mirak
Wait wait wait, is the 100 dollar fee a one-time payment for all games, or for every single one? (Or maybe kentona's just wealthy enough to lob 100's very quickly?) Because I always thought, even for free games, you had to pay 100. For every single one.


Yes, that's correct! You'd have to pay for every single one, so that's why it would probably be a good idea to put up your most significant / most important project to you and see how that goes.

author=unity
For whatever reason, the video part of this feels the most daunting to me for some reason. I guess I need to look into how to do that someday.


some people have friends/fans help put together trailers for them, so if video editing seems daunting that might also be a viable option? kory_toombs suggested trial of camtasia studio for recording game footage which is good, but if you want a non-trial software that's free and used by many I personally used open broadcaster software for recording my rm2k3 game in HD :) (also sorry if i'm driving this off topic but there's also this really neat video about how video game trailers are made, it's insightful)

author=kentona
also, yes pls to the discuss Steam process.


oooh boi there is so much to say here, maybe i should make an article on it someday? here’s a rundown that essentially covers it:

Figure out which steam account you’re going to use as a developer before signing in to steamworks here:
https://partner.steamgames.com
(Since my main steam account was personal, i made a new one for game dev)

Buy the direct product submission fee: https://store.steampowered.com/sub/163632/

After that on the steamworks site, you’ll have to fill in a bunch of tax information and your bank account details, EVEN IF your game is free. (If your game is free, don’t worry - they don’t ever end up using this information or charge you anything extra. I haven’t put a paid product up but it’s just so steam can take a margin and add tax to what you sell). Then there’s a waiting period of roughly a week where Steam reviews that information before actually letting you do things on Steamworks.

This is what the main steamworks page for your game looks like after that:


The most important thing is the release checklist on the side. That’s like a little to do list that tells you what you need to do and gives u info on how in order to release your game.

There’s 2 lists:
1. One for building your store page.
2. One for uploading your game and letting your game go live.

When you finish 1, you submit it for review by Steam and they’ll usually say “ya it’s good” within 2-5 working days (they … really don’t moderate steam descriptions at all …). then you can set it live.

Nearly the same thing for 2, except you can only submit it for review once you finish 1.

More importantly: you can only release ur game a month after you get your steamworks account confirmed, and AT LEAST 2 weeks after ur store page is live & public.

Here’s what most of the checklist looks like:

(I couldn’t find one that showed all of gamebuild, srry, but one of the requirements was a trailer)




May come back to this thread and add more info later, but that’s essentially the process :)


SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323
Ghosthunter's info a pics are pretty helpful there. Store page and builds are reviewed separately. The checklist makes it a no-brainer for what you need to do.

Besides the Steam Direct website, there is also a separate log in for Steamworks Product Data. I find it a bit annoying having to log into these separately.

The Direct website is for submitting your store page and build.

The Partner website is to view wish lists, purchases, refunds, monthly payouts.
(Yes, if you ask for a refund and fill in that box that says why, devs can actually read that.)

Once you are a Steamworks member you can also join an exclusive group on Steam. You can ask a lot of questions on the boards there. It's a great resource.

For those of you thinking of using itch.io... Your sales on Seam will hugely overshadow anything you can make on itch.io. For every sale you make on itch.io, you will make 10-20 sales on Steam.

Oh my god the Thank You DLC thing makes so much sense and it feels like such a good idea. I'll definitely consider playing that card at some point. It makes a lot of sense in terms of allowing yourself to have the reach of a (free) steam game without necessarily having to cash that (expensive for a free, ad-less, simple-but-polished game) $100 buck fee.

If I ever revisit or make something that I think is worthy of being a free game on Steam, I'll definitely consider that route!

BTW, are you allowed unlimited DLCs after paying the $100 fee? Because having to pay an extra $100 for the Thank You DLC would definitely hurt. Another useful way to capitalize on free games via DLC is by selling asset packs of your games. I definitely will consider doing that in the future, although there's not too much reason to do so with my current RPG Maker-centric packs.


author=Oblic
BUT I think if you narrow down the free game selection to those that are considered complete by there creators, which still includes a TON of games, you would likely have a much fairer and closer comparison. I would even contend that the free games might edge out the paid ones.

Hmm, it may be so! We can't say for sure without researching. But I believe otherwise and I do think the average for commercial games may be a little bit higher. Not a lot, though. I mean, commercial RM games have a LOT of shitty asset flips made by inescrupulous devs. But free RM games also have a lot of terrible amateurish projects as well even if you only consider those that are "completed"... many of which might have a hard time comparing to even some of the asset flips. And then again some of the "bad" commercial RM games are trippier and way crazier (even if still shitty) than a lot of free stuff.
So it's really... I don't know. There's such a wealth of amazing free RM games, though, absolutely no doubt! If I were to list it, it'd become a huuuge list! And it's easy to recall of these first. But yeah, um.

Anyway I'd love to see more devs shooting for steam, even if for free with a donation page. It certainly will help making the commercial RM scene seem more pleasant to dive into, rather than the piles of placid asset flips and uninspired rtp hentai.

BTW, I really wish Soma Spirits was more popular, that game deserves so muchhhhh....................... i mean so many steam rm games but soma spirits in particular i'm like WHY ISN'T THIS GAME FAMOUS

ALSO YALL DO CROSSOVERS ON STEAM AND CROSS-LINK EACHOTHER'S GAMES XX
SunflowerGames
The most beautiful user on RMN!
13323

You can create up to 10 DLCs for your game. You don't need to pay a fee for DLCs. You only need to pay the fee for the game. You can also choose how to manage your DLCs. You can manage them on your game's landing page or manage them separately (ie they will get there own page and app number in your steamworks site.)

If you're following my tutorial on how to load games through the SDK, there are some slight modifications you will need to make to upload the game. Make sure your app id number and depot number are the same for DLCs. Depending on where you want the DLC to be installed, you'll need to check this line in your Depot build script:

// This is a path relative to the install folder of your game
"DepotPath" ".\data"

(Note: I want the DLC to be installed into the data folder.)


I know nothing about free games on Steam, but as someone on their 2nd commercial game and regarding them...

Another hurdle/todo not mentioned is the tax interview process. If you're not in the US and you want to gain revenue without the default 30% withholding tax you'll have to get a type of TIN called an EIN. It's worth looking into what tax treaty your country has with the US (for Canada it's 0%). Can be done over the phone quite easily, but I remember the FAQ being a little confusing. Basically get an EIN, fill out the electronic tax interview that's in the Steamworks control panel, and then you can proceed. Oh you'll probably need to list yourself as a Sole Proprietor if you don't have a business or company.

On "How do I know my game will do well?" Wishlists are really the only metric to go off in terms of knowing how well your game will do. The conversion rate to actual purchases is probably the highest out of any metric (up to 30% from some sources), and most of your wishlists will likely come from Steam directly (Assuming you don't have any other marketing source that is). If you don't have a lot of wishlists or any kind of coverage, you probably shouldn't launch your game. The simple logic of marketing is that if people don't know about your game yet, then they don't know your game even exists, let alone even consider buying it. Seems obvious, but I see a lot of people hitting the launch button out of panic or fear that their game will be irrelevant etc. This article from 2018 goes over what you can expect from a launch based on wishlists. Things have changed, but I asked a lot of people and this info still pretty much holds up.

How do you know other games did well? There isn't a public way to know the exact sales, but sites like SteamSpy often gave estimates based on reviews on how well a game sold, Steam has limited the API info you can grab though. So the latest data to check is this chart someone made. There's also some interesting notes about the data from the person who made it. If you want to know if your game/genre is viable you should probably look for games similar to your production values, find out if they did well, and look into the reviews on what they liked and didn't like about it. Hell even ask/PM them directly about what made them buy the game. It's why people running for office knock on peoples doors all the time, to find out what their needs and worries are. Ya know, marketing.

This sort of research is the key to actually figuring out how to market your game because you need to know why people would actually buy your game. "I put effort into it/it's innovative" is not really a value proposition and pretty subjective. This doesn't mean "make the most popular genre" But if low budget puzzle games are doing poorly in terms of sales, you probably aren't going to rock the boat realistically speaking. It's worth doing the research before you even start making the game. If you're merely a hobbyist in the middle of making your dream project, this research process might contradict a lot of what you're doing. It's also harder to walk back some things you've already committed to (like say, the genre, artstyle, type of gameplay, length or any taggable thing). Sgt M actually touches on something: that making commercial games is a different field from a hobby. Though even with free games I still looked into the download numbers and tried to figure out the best way to get my free games to as many as possible. If you're already doing stuff like that, then it might not be all that different. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There isn't a way to 100% demystify how well your game will do, but it's worth doing as much as you possibly can with actual tangible numbers. As for me personally my current game probably won't do amazing, but based on my projections it'll very likely succeed the first one. It's a learning process like anything else. I'll likely disclose sales numbers in some Post-Mortem at some point.
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