RPGMAKER MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE GAME OVER [MAFIA]

Posts

Cap, you seem really eager to lynch me when we don't have tales reveal yet, and emily hasn't flipped. I mean she is my vote too, but it's still a 50/50 chance that she flips scum. Considering you think I'm scum if emily is scum, the odds of me being scum are lower than 50% without the flip.

I'd rather wait for the tale reveal and lynch whoever that is.
author=Cap_H
Also, weird things about fomar this game. He's been using Emily's avatar of an outed scum and referred to himself as scum.


Also this is terrible reasoning for a case against me.

I hope you find my new avatar more acceptable, had the Chrono Cross (admit it Jeroen by the end it was obviously more Cross than Trigger) mafia lasted another day I was going to make a browser add-on to change all our avatars to the correct characters.
Anyway I guess I’ll have to wait for morning for tale's result.

Off to bed.
crack theory: cap_h/demonlord/?AE? scumteam, cap + demon think demon was investigated and are bussing.

Although it's not that unlikely, really. I think demon is very likely to be scum now, yeah, and last member leaves cap_h/Fomar. Fomar I've had on "strong town" for a while and I don't buy cap's case... but, the rest of Cap's stuff looks good today with valid point about good interactions with both OldPat and AE. So, not sure if it's more likely that Fomar has me beat, AE bussed cap early, or cap bussed oldpat early. The oldpat thing seems especially unlikely -- attack was at a time when oldpat already had some pressure on him.
I'm back from dinner. Waiting for a post from AE. Should I announce result at 2 or 4 hours from now if there's no reply?
OK, I'm here. I'm also going to lead with this:

#lynch OldPat

The reasons should be obvious, I know for a fact they are scum.

I don't really feel anything one way or the other on Odd's oracle claim. He was borderline doing jester plays D1, so it's not super surprising.

author=psy_wombats
I'm surprised scum passed on a chance kill the doctor so I don't really have a case prepared aside from my gut yesterday (AE).


Maybe they are hoping we'll do it for them? Or they are not even that concerned about the cop, because of the lawyer and the miller, and they are hoping to keep the fake doctor alive. That would also point to Pat being the lawyer, since that's a big risk to take and the janitor is already used up.

author=Cap_H
OldPat, Emily, who did you protect? Tale? It would make sense. It would make sense for Mafia to kill Tale tonight and keep both of you alive till tomorrow.
Because of that I demand reads on Fomar and Psy from both of you.


Yes, I protected Tale. I also don't know why you think mafia can kill Tale tonight, the doctor can target the same person on consecutive nights.

For Fomar, his initial post about why he thought I was scum felt like slightly weak reasoning to me (basically that what I'm doing is different but it feels the same), but as a read it doesn't really strike me scummy.
It seems pretty towny to me that he backed off when I claimed though, given that he had been pushing for my lynch before. That would have been a good time to keep going for it and force a doctor lynch. He also suggested a different target, and it's a plus that did lead to the lynch we got.

Also I have no idea at all why Fomar used my old avatar. Presumably because he hasn't set himself on fire this game, just like I didn't last game.

For Psy, one thing in particular stands out:

author=psy_wombats
Pat if you're doc/oracle, claim before leaving

author=psy_wombats
Actually, Jeroen, how much longer will you be around? If more than like 2 people aren't around at deadline then the daykill is locked in already. I definitely definitely prefer AE to OldPat today -- I suspect her more strongly and if Pat is unclaimed doc, we're SOL.


This looks like slightly clumsy telegraphing for OldPat to claim, or to float the idea first and see what the response to the idea was. I don't really feel a whole lot else about his posts, other than that he's been basically fine. He's been reasonably in touch with the thread the entire time, although maybe a little passive.

I kind of wish we got a different flip than LP. There isn't a huge amount of interaction to read there, although there was a lot of talk about LP so that's something at least. I need to reread D1 with this in mind.
er..

Psy is guilty

I'll be having nightmares if you're miller.
A psy/cap/oldpat doctor sounds plausible to me. Considering the odds of hitting miller verses hitting unlawyered scum, I think I'll take my chances.

#lynch psy_wombats
That is... probably game over.

From my perspective, with 2 villagers remaining it's 50% that I was the miller to begin with, yeah, but false cop reading is like 1 miller among 2 scum. All I can offer is that we no-kill today, play follow the cop, and count on tale to find the actual scum in his investigations -- at least with my role known, I can guarantee that all other positives are scum.
Is this just some nightmare where we never actually get to lynching Pat? But fine, I understand why this the thing to do.

#cancel
#lynch Psy
AE is the fake doctor, by the way. She would know that a positive cop read on me is 2:1 odds, but Pat's claim to her would be 100% garbage.

#lynch AlaskanEmily
Well, even if I die, I at least reserve the right to be self-righteous after the game's over: my sealed envelope submission is AE/demonlord/Cap scumteam, with AE bussing Cap after she caught heat from Fomar so that Cap would look good when she flipped
author=psy_wombats
AE is the fake doctor, by the way. She would know that a positive cop read on me is 2:1 odds, but Pat's claim to her would be 100% garbage


Oh I'm still 100% for the Pat lynch. If anyone else wants to do that I'm 100% in, like right now. But I understand that lacking my insight on that situation, lynching you is a better option. It's a higher chance to succeeed (2/3 rather than 1/2), and the downside of a mislynch is lower (losing the miller over losing the doctor).
That would've been true yesterday but today the game /ends/ if I die. If you assume no prior knowledge, then killing me is 1/3 chance to end things immediately.
I've been considering nolynch, but I can't see any way it helps us. Scum will 100% leave me alive, and even assuming we investigate me tonight there is no way to rule out that I'm not scum under the lawyer power. Most likely they kill fomar tonight as he's our most likely to be town, and also leaves all suspicious elements surrounding me.

I feel like we're going to need a flip to make any progress, and considering this result is more likely to win the game than end it, I think it's worth the risk.
Tale doesn't disclose who he's investigating -- you, one of the docs, cap, etc. It gives another data point, at minimum.

It's really impossible for me to argue this objectively because 1) 10:1 the people I'm arguing with are scum and have a vested interest in disagreeing and 2) I'd personally policykill anyone claiming to be a miller to begin with.

(also yes I'm sure that killing me will "win" you the game demon lol)
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=demonlord5000
Cap, you seem really eager to lynch me when we don't have tales reveal yet, and emily hasn't flipped. I mean she is my vote too, but it's still a 50/50 chance that she flips scum. Considering you think I'm scum if emily is scum, the odds of me being scum are lower than 50% without the flip.

I'd rather wait for the tale reveal and lynch whoever that is.


Tbh, the doctor scum is dead. We don't want to ever kill town doctor. Lynching there is risky unless there's no other chance or unless one of them gets nk'ed.
Tale would need to get cc'ed for me to reconsider. I don't like him being so cryptic about it, but there's not another reason to doubt him now.
Fomar and Psy were both more active and actively hunting one of Old/Emily. They shouldn't be together.
It always leaves you as an optimal vote.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=Fomar0153
author=Cap_H
Also, weird things about fomar this game. He's been using Emily's avatar of an outed scum and referred to himself as scum.
Also this is terrible reasoning for a case against me.

I hope you find my new avatar more acceptable, had the Chrono Cross (admit it Jeroen by the end it was obviously more Cross than Trigger) mafia lasted another day I was going to make a browser add-on to change all our avatars to the correct characters.


I know but sometimes jokes are scummy and I can't get over it.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=psy_wombats
Well, even if I die, I at least reserve the right to be self-righteous after the game's over: my sealed envelope submission is AE/demonlord/Cap scumteam, with AE bussing Cap after she caught heat from Fomar so that Cap would look good when she flipped


Tbh, this is crap. I've only noticed the peek now and it's interesting because Demon and Emily jumped on it. What's the chance of both of them being towns? Close to zero I would say.
So, there's a real chance of Demon bussing you or they're both wolves knowing you're the miller.
On the other hand your reaction to Tale's claim wasn't the best. You immediately started calling it game over and your reasons for voting Emily there (the odds) were meh. Yet I can see a townie doing that.

no lynch is a good option.

I'm almost willing to bet on Psy and vote Emily here.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=AlaskanEmily
Yes, I protected Tale. I also don't know why you think mafia can kill Tale tonight, the doctor can target the same person on consecutive nights.


Oh, I would like to hear on this from OldPat too. It's not very common. Possibly broken setup if you're town.
Also, most of your reasoning in this wall is solid. Especially, the way you managed to catch psy possibly telegraphing old pat. I don't know why would he do that in-thread, tho.
You said you were willing to go Demonlord yesterday. What do you think about him now?