RPGMAKER MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE GAME OVER [MAFIA]

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Considering what just happened, I am shocked at how few posts there.

I need to gather my thoughts, just woke up.

Sadly Psy is the person whom I've town read since the start, as much as I would normally lynch a miller claim he's right that if we lynch the miller we lose. I think there's going to be no great decisions today.
Cap_H
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Town power roles (0 wolves): Odd, Tale
Doctor claims (1 wolf): AE, OldPat
Villagers (1-2 wolves): Demonlord, Fomar
Red Peek/Miller (0-1 wolves): Psy

From my pov, we always have a good chance to hit a wolf. Trying to kill one of the doctor claims are the worst odds for us - for now. I'm sure we should be able to crack this by reading the game.
Killing Psy gives us about the same odds.
Killing one of Demon or Fomar actually has higher odds of hitting a wolf. Ofc from my pov. One of them is a guaranteed wolf and the other one has a chance of being wolf if psy says the truth.

Also, meta fact, Demon went for Jero n1 last time he was scum. I could see him using the same strat here.
Killing outside of claims made it more difficult for mafia to move around than killing oldpat/emily, but it wasn't poor strategy as they basically can win the game today.
Cap_H
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author=Fomar0153
Considering what just happened, I am shocked at how few posts there.

I need to gather my thoughts, just woke up.

Sadly Psy is the person whom I've town read since the start, as much as I would normally lynch a miller claim he's right that if we lynch the miller we lose. I think there's going to be no great decisions today.


Odds are one of the two of you is scum. Very maybe both (not sold on this variant). What are your alternatives?
Cap_H
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Demonlord, Could you see Psy/Fomar world? I need to know.
Cap_H
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Ofc before the peek it was:
Villagers (2 wolve): Demonlord, Fomar, Psy
Still better chance at randomly hitting wolf than killing AE or OP.
Cap_H
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Let's compare some votes:

author=psy_wombats
#lynch LizardmanPrincess- side benefit, don't have to wait and see if they'd come vote


This isn't much of a read from Psy. I would expect town Psy to be little more sold on his vote. To be fair he pushed...actually he didn't do any proper pushes before. He voted Jeroen. That was blatant bandwagonning on his side and defended OldPat. Reasons for some of his opinions like liking Fomar weren't related to AI things imo.

author=Fomar0153
#lynch Princess LizardAlso tale don't waste your action investigating either doctor, my gut says that will resolve itself quickly and there's a high chance you'll investigate someone who gets night killed and then we learn nothing new. You're likely to get only get one read so make it count.


A good advice, but I don't see any reasoning for the vote.

author=demonlord5000
#lynch LizardPrincessNo complaints here since she was my original pick.


Ok, there's continuity but there's also lack of progression. The best vote out of the three.

#cancel
#lynch Psy_wombats


Sorry, if you're miller, but your d1 actions don't look too good.
Cap_H
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Also, I know Emily came in way later but OldPat not talking about who he protected right away is a bad look. Instead he went for: Oh noes! They got Jero.

Yeah, also it seems like Psy's only talking with Fomar about Odd's puzzle. It's a weird kind of interaction.
Cap_H
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right now, I'm either wrong and voting psy with two wolves and the third wolf is Fomar waiting for someone else to vote or voting a wolf with town doctor and possibly one town/wolf, who would more likely be town in that scenario, actually. It's crazy.
Cap_H
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The point I forgot to make is that two wolves being only players jumping on miller doesn't sound right. Demon makes me believe that he either sheeps peek as town or busses as scum as he was quite hesitant to commit himself as wolf.
Cap_H
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#cancel
i'm re-reading
Cap_H
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author=demonlord5000
Pretty sure that was tale also odd.

Also since I'm 2 away from lynch, and I could get killed overnight, so I might as well say I'm vanilla. This also means I have a 25% chance of being the miller so killing me wouldn't be the worst decision. Probably look at lizard, cap and jero after I flip town. There has to be at least one scum member on me, but I'm adding cap to that because I'm still suspicious of him.

I think psy and fomar are probably town.

Anyone I didn't mention are pretty null to me right now.


This one's interesting. Votes on demon were Jero, Oldpat, Princess.
Cap_H
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author=psy_wombats
#lynch Jeroen_Solhard for me to read demon's last post as anything but legit despite the poor LP case


Yeah, this isn't based on psy previously scumreading Jero.
Still typing up a big post and doing a bunch of calculations (and might be about to be called for breakfast) but something just occurred to me.

Town players please bear in mind that 2 wrong votes on one person is enough for us to lose instantly if all the scum are around.
Cap_H
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author=Cap_H
author=psy_wombats
#lynch Jeroen_Solhard for me to read demon's last post as anything but legit despite the poor LP case
Yeah, this isn't based on psy previously scumreading Jero.


Ok, OldPat followed Psy on Jero few posts later. I think wolfbros would try to distance themselves there.
While some of OldPat's reads are stretched, there are moments of ingenuity. It's visible that he followed the thread and inspired his reads.

author=demonlord5000
Hey, I'm alive! I still support my LP lynch, but I'm open too other lynches too. I do feel a bit better about cap from his later posts.

I could get behind a jeroen lynch. I don't think voting me is suspicious by itself considering he scum reads me every single game, but I can see the arguments that have been made for a jero lynch.

Odd is the easy lynch here. He does this every game where he posts but doesn't really contribute anything helpful

Emily feels different to me than last game where she rolled scum. She actually threw down an early joke vote, and was willing to switch off of it later.

I can't say I know enough about oldpats style, but she does seem to be genuinely looking for scum.

LP hasn't really done anything that makes me feel any better about her.

I think my picks for today would be LP, odd, or jero.


This post from Demon returns me on my original path tbh. He only mentioned some players and most of these is him saying that he wasn't opposed to lynching these people. The only exception are our doc claims. We know that one of these is scum and It feels fake to tr Emily for changing from her joke vote, when he sticked his guns to his LP sr all day.

author=OldPat
Emily is partecipating slightly more than in her last game and she's throwing some suppositions here and there (Believing Tale, saying that Demon doesn't feel great to her...). I can't see anything that's suspicious about her, for now, so I can't read her as scum. If I have to read her as scum for her low partecipation, then I would have to go after LP too.

About LP:
What makes you say that?


She's behaving exactly the same as in she doesn't pop up often but she tries to partecipate somehow, someway. I am aware of her poor scheduling and her inexperience from the last game (I've already talked about this), especially coupled with the fact that she also had trouble DMing me in private topic when we were partners (I do have to remind you, I was in the same private chat as her in our last game). So I'm not reading her as scum just yet. I know this comes from just *one* game with her, but it's something to go by.


Seeing this now, there's actually a visible inspiration with Demon's post. I think his read on LP is nice and an original piece of thinking.

author=AlaskanEmily
Well this is weird to come back to.

author=OldPat
I wasn't sure about this, since I'm very confused about roles and all but since tale did something similar for his own role...

You should all know that I'm a town doc.



Umm, bullshit. I am the doctor.

#cancel
#lynch OldPat


AE ccing here is weird if she's scum, tho. People took few of their votes off OldPat and not much else happened. OldPat's claim isn't very convincing with you should know and i don't know how to do this.
So, i think Pat had some solid posts but they were all based on meta or sheeping other players.

Minor point - Fomar voted for both AE and OldPat before the claims happened. Makes him look better. Psy mostly avoided them, Demon leaned town on both. Based on that Psy-Demon-Pat looks like the most likely situation.
OldPat
OrudoPatto, kisama!
4948
I'm sorry if I didn't say who I protected right away. I was not looking at the topic when you asked (and went to sleep some time after that) and I wasn't sure whether I should've said or not. My first day 2 post was all for Emily, since she's clearly scum to me now.

I've protected tale, because he claimed to be the cop and I had no reason to not believe him, really. While most mechanics are still not clear to me, like the follow-the-cop thing, I knew that he should've been defended by scum. Everyone else looks dirty to me, especially after day one.

We got Emily who's 100% scum for counterclaiming me and pretending to be the doc, hoping people would either lynch me (it was quite a certain lynch, since I already had people being suspicious of me) or go for random town lynch, like it happened to LP. I still can't get over how naive have you all been on the LP matter. Demon was a better pick, we all were pretty wary of Jero too and I'm personally still trying to read through Psy and Fomar. They look like town to me, since they've all been pretty active and they tried to scum hunt as much as they could. Same thing could be said about Cap. He's a very aggressive and attentive townie, but he's now trying to steer away from clear picks like Emily and Demon by a whole lot...

Don't get me wrong, Emily, as it stands, is not that safe of a pick, since she also claimed doc. I can guarantee you, she's scum, but you don't know, so it's clear that you want to stay safe. But one thing is staying wary, another thing is claiming she's probably the real doc and I'm fake.

Anyway after reading about what tale has to say I'm conflicted. I mean, Emily is a clear hit, but I guess this is part of the "follow-the-cop" mechanic? I should read into it.

I'll have some thinking to do before giving a clear lynch. But really, as it stands, Demon and Emily are both pretty strong on my scum radar. I guess there's a possibility of Psy being there now that tale mentioned him, although I really need to understand how these readings the cop provide works. As in, the investigation the cop carries on is some kind of "personal investigation" or he has abilities that helps him?

I'm still reading into Fomar. Both him, Psy and Cap sounded like town to me up until now, but I'll have to give it a thorough read. What Cap said about Psy avoiding Emily and Fomar going for her could be seen as evidence of him providing some protection to his scum comrades. And we also got tale's readings to go by.

But there's also something AE said in her post that...

For Fomar, his initial post about why he thought I was scum felt like slightly weak reasoning to me (basically that what I'm doing is different but it feels the same), but as a read it doesn't really strike me scummy.
It seems pretty towny to me that he backed off when I claimed though, given that he had been pushing for my lynch before. That would have been a good time to keep going for it and force a doctor lynch. He also suggested a different target, and it's a plus that did lead to the lynch we got.


I would like to hear her opinions on Demon, too.
But really, this looks off. How does not providing a lynch after two doctor claim prove that you're town? Not even scum would go after a random or forced lynch like that. It would tickle everyone's scum radar pretty hard, imo.

I'm reading Fomar as possible scum and this sounds like a Demon/Emily/Fomar pairing, with Emily trying to provide cover for his scum pal with some VERY weak reasonings.

I'll take my time to catch up with what has been written until now, though.
Ok so we have 8 alive (5 town, 3 scum). We can't rule out that Jeroen was the miller.

Confirmed Town
Tale
OddRabbit
OldPat or AlaskenEmily

Confirmed Scum
OldPat or AlaskenEmily

Which leaves (2 town, 2 scum and one of the 2 town could be the miller):
Psy_Wombats
Cap_H
demonlord_5000
Fomar0153

Right so onto the teams.

If OldPat is scum, I do not think Psy is, otherwise Psy would have told him to claim in the scum chat. Which gives the team OldPat, Cap_H and demonlord_5000 which is a team I can believe.

If AE is scum then it's less clear cut for me.

Ok so at the time Tale made his decision he was choosing from this list:
Psy_Wombats, Cap_H, demonlord_5000, Fomar0153 (and Jeroen but we know he's town and wasn't chosen), so we're down to the same four, I'm going to make this easier for me and stop including myself as potential scum as I know I'm not and nobody else is giving stats with themselves included, so removing me because I know I'm town (though I could be the miller if Psy is lying) and wasn't chosen then:

Given that I can't know if Jeroen was the miller, myself and the final vanilla town from my knowledge have a 1 in 3 chance of being the miller.

So tale investigates 2 scum and 1 vanilla town (1 in 3 miller), we also don't know who the lawyer is which makes this much harder.

Using the following weightings:
Fake-doctor is lawyer - 1 in 3 chance
If the fake-doctor is not the lawyer then their target was 50/50 (although my gut says they will have covered the non-doctor I can see a scum logic where the doctor may have been a viable option)
The final town out of Psy, Cap and Demon has a 1 in 3 chance of being the miller

Probability Tree:

The breakdown:


Given that we lose if we lynch Psy and he's the miller, I'm not ready to accept a 41% chance without looking through alternative options.

Cap_H
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Can you protect Tale again tonight, OldPat?
The real doctor needs to protect tale every night otherwise scum can night kill one confirmed town without giving us either an oracle reading or revealing the fake doctor.
The various combinations of scum I run through in my head virtually all contain demonlord, his town reading of both doctors, also his part in the great digital root derailment (and we know Odd and LP were town), I strongly suspected it involved one scum.
Cap_H
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I'm only reading your post, but

author=Fomar
If OldPat is scum, I do not think Psy is, otherwise Psy would have told him to claim in the scum chat.


This is something I've been thinking about a lot. If Psy is scum and OldPat town, he had no reason to do it outside of maybe getting some town cred for it.

Scum OldPat coming right after with a little uncertain claim if Psy's town doesn't make sense to. I don't think it would have been his idea.

Psy and Old both wolves makes the most sense. Psy came in saw the situation and reacted (in somehow towny fashion), in spare minutes convinced OldPat in chat to actually do it.

Town Psy had no reason to PR town OldPat.