RPGMAKER MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE GAME OVER [MAFIA]

Posts

Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=Fomar0153
The various combinations of scum I run through in my head virtually all contain demonlord, his town reading of both doctors, also his part in the great digital root derailment (and we know Odd and LP were town), I strongly suspected it involved one scum.


I'm on the same note here.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=Emily
For Fomar, his initial post about why he thought I was scum felt like slightly weak reasoning to me (basically that what I'm doing is different but it feels the same), but as a read it doesn't really strike me scummy.
It seems pretty towny to me that he backed off when I claimed though, given that he had been pushing for my lynch before. That would have been a good time to keep going for it and force a doctor lynch. He also suggested a different target, and it's a plus that did lead to the lynch we got.


OldPat, I actually find this to be a good read from Emily.
author=Cap_H
OldPat, I actually find this to be a good read from Emily.


Err what? OldPat is either scum or knows Emily is scum. Telling him about Emily's reads is pointless.
Why would you be trying to convice OldPat of Emily's town-i-ness?
Before Cap's weird post I was working on this:

We are virtually at MYLO.

A quick note on the 41% that is only the % for me. Although if Psy isn't the miller then it would be true for demonlord or Cap_H also (which ever one that is town). For every other town player you have access to 1 less piece of information but it won't be a drastically different percentage.

Plan 1 - Lynch Psy_Wombats
Risk: 41% chance of Psy_Wombats being the miller. Which leaves us with 4 town, 3 scum and if the doctor doesn't block the night kill then we lose (if we go with this plan and Psy_Wombats is the miller then the doctor should consider protecting someone else).
Reward: If Psy flips scum then we go into night with 5 town, 2 scum.
If this happens then Odd should target one of the non-resolving unknowns: Cap_H, demonlord, Fomar0153.
At this point night kill options:
tale should be protected but if they decide the doctor is bluffing (which they shouldn't in this scenario) then it should be the same as no-lynch.
Tale/No lynch: We start day 3 with 5 town, 2 scum and another cop read. If Psy was the lawyer (numerically 50/50 in this scenario but probably higher chance) then we also gain the added buff that any town tale finds are now confirmed town which gives us a massive advantage going forward. If Psy is not the lawyer or tale gets another scum read though we end up in another miller debate.
OddRabbit gets night killed: We start day 3 with 4 town, 2 scum but we get both a cop read and an oracle read. Oracle is obviously 100% and will give us either our next lynch target or a confirmed town (maybe even miller). This would be scum's dumbest move as we'd basically be in a position to win.
OldPat/AlaskanEmily gets night killed: We start day 3 with 4 town, 2 scum and we get another cop read, if Psy was lawyer repeat the bit I said about 100% town reads and we get an easy day 3 lynch - fake doctor. At which point the only option that doesn't solve the game is night kill tale. Leaving odd, 1 scum and 2 unconfirmed town. We could stall but we'd be first to stall and lose in a stall off.
Cap_H/Fomar0153/Demonlord gets night killed: We start day 3 with 4 town, 2 scum, at this point there's a chance the miller might be revealed by the night kill, also the same stuff about psy/lawyer combo. It's possible with the right cop reads the game will be solvable at this point but there's still a chance for it to go either way.

Taking a small break and then will write up the other 3 plans I see that are available to us.

I don't doubt odd anymore. I'm reading into Fomar's plan 1- might take a while
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=Fomar0153
author=Cap_H
OldPat, I actually find this to be a good read from Emily.
Err what? OldPat is either scum or knows Emily is scum. Telling him about Emily's reads is pointless.


I know that, but it's good to point out that his post has holes in it. I still need to figure out details, but I'm more and more sold on Old, Psy, Demon.
OldPat, investigation is cop ability where they pick a player at night to get a confirmation.

Depending on setup- chance of false result could happen because of alive miller.
OldPat
OrudoPatto, kisama!
4948
author=Cap_H
author=Fomar0153
author=Cap_H
OldPat, I actually find this to be a good read from Emily.
Err what? OldPat is either scum or knows Emily is scum. Telling him about Emily's reads is pointless.
I know that, but it's good to point out that his post has holes in it. I still need to figure out details, but I'm more and more sold on Old, Psy, Demon.


If I'm scum and I see two claiming to be doctors, I wouldn't force a lynch on one of them, especially when most of the townies already backed down. It would make me look ultra suspicious, as if I wanna down the doctor at all costs. At the same time, I would have two doctors and I could go for a chance NK that very same night instead of playing suspicious with a public lynch.

Does this make any sense or am I evaluating things wrong?

At this point, this wouldn't be enough for me to believe Fomar just because he backed down on that. It's not enough proof to read him as town.


OldPat
OrudoPatto, kisama!
4948
I would also like to add, that this *does* make Jero's NK all the more suspicious, considering there were two possible docs right there. But I really can't throw hypothesis on that one. Most roles are still very unclear to me

@tale: A definitive result, you mean? Like "he's this"?
I'm pretty convinced fomar is town cap. I just got up myself and read. My theory is that scum knew the next day would be mylo, townread me after my defense post, and then found a reason to go after LP. I would not have gone after LP so hard with a not great argument as scum. That's all I had though. I think it could be a good idea to look back at the end of d1 and look at how quickly LP got lynched.
@Oldpat, Result says: Psy is guilty (rephrased for ruling's sake)
Definitive result however we don't know if miller is still around.

Guilty result means scum.
Miller is town if investigated- found guilty.

Result does not tell role, only alignment.
If we lynch miller, then town might lose because numbers of scums.
Looks like LP got lynched in a timespan of 10 mins which is interesting. The Cap/Psy/pat theory would mean we had 2 out of 3 scum on her which would mean scum is playing really aggressively. Even if you assume that 2 of Me/Psy/Cap are scum, that doesn't even change though because I was on her too.
That's also I look at for now. I'm gone for the next 3-4 hours. I have some stuff to do this morning.
@Cap does no-lynch in Day 2 ends up LYLO? I'll be busy for 2 hours.

@Fomar I'm trying understand future days if psy isn't a miller- Plan 1
odd probably going to get nk because of being a confirmed town?
At the same time depending on odd's target will reveal a role.
If it's vanilla, then it's hard to determine unless it's one of doctors.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
author=demonlord5000
I'm pretty convinced fomar is town cap. I just got up myself and read. My theory is that scum knew the next day would be mylo, townread me after my defense post, and then found a reason to go after LP. I would not have gone after LP so hard with a not great argument as scum. That's all I had though. I think it could be a good idea to look back at the end of d1 and look at how quickly LP got lynched.


If you were town, it wouldn't be difficult for scum to townread you. I considered all options and you always make sense as wolf.

author=tale
@Cap does no-lynch in Day 2 ends up LYLO? I'll be busy for 2 hours.

@Fomar I'm trying understand future days if psy isn't a miller- Plan 1
odd probably going to get nk because of being a confirmed town?
At the same time depending on odd's target will reveal a role.
If it's vanilla, then it's hard to determine unless it's one of doctors.


We're in mylo. We can't mislynch. So, going for no kill should give you another peek (Emily's more likely town because she mentioned doctor being able to protect you consecutively). With two peeks and one less unknown, we might be in a better situation to sort out psy. And yes, it would result in a ly-lo.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
I'm for killing psy. If he's miller, we can blame Cave for including the role.
Tale when we choose a plan I'll break it down for you. Depending on what we do and what the flipped person's role is you'll either be investigating a doctor (unlikely) or one of Cap_H, demonlord and myself (likely).

Plan 2 - No lynch
If we go with this strategy then I think Odd should target Psy (or maybe of the uncomfirmed town) and the doctor protect tale.
Bear in mind the anti-stalling rules. Nothing is stopping scum from targetting a protected tale and causing us to lose if we do this twice.
If we go with no lynch then the following options are there for the night kill:
tale/nolynch: Read above. We do get 1 more cop read though, which might make it worth it.
OddRabbit gets night killed: We'll get a lot of information from the oracle, either we discover who the real miller is, or a confirmed town (from which we can deduce at least 1 scum) or a confirmed scum.
OldPat/AlaskanEmily gets night killed: We get one final cop read though with such a small pool of candidates any town reads will be questionable and scum reads will lead to a miller counter claim. Though we do get to lynch the fake doctor and there will only be a small number of possible scum teams so we still have a fair chance.
Cap_H/Fomar0153/Demonlord gets night killed: Scum will know whether or not this solves the game. We don't know if Jeroen was the miller, they do. They also know if Psy is the miller or scum. One or two of us are vanilla town, depending on if Psy is the miller or scum. If Jeroen was the miller, and Psy is scum then they can kill one of us without risk of outing Psy (to anyone except the last vanilla town). If Jeroen was vanilla and Psy is scum they have a 50/50 chance of outing the miller and Psy. If Psy is the miller (which they will know), demonlord and Cap are both scum (because I know I am not) and so I would be the night kill in this scenario. At which point they can counterclaim miller when tale investigates one - I might add something to this later once we've chosen a plan.
Psy gets night killed: A technicality, this would basically solve the game. They wouldn't do this.
If anyone wants to re-read only these are the only possible scum teams:

1) AlaskanEmily/OldPat
2 & 3) Two of Demonlord, Cap_H, Psy_Wombats and me.

I know it's not me so from my point of view Demonlord, Cap_H, Psy_Wombats contains two scum, so I'd prefer to lynch one of them, the doctors are only 50/50 (It's OldPat though and I will cover it in my next plan). A miller claim is never great so part of me thinks it's worth going after Psy...

Tale why did you choose Psy? He was my only real strong town read day 1, what made you suspicious of him? Did I miss something or read something differently to you?
Plan 3 - Fake Doctor Lynch
Risk: Numerically it's a 50/50 we lose right now, if we hit the wrong doctor then we don't even have the faint doctor blocks a night kill hope that we do in a Psy/Miller lynch. Although most of us I think agree OldPat is the fake.
Reward: Doctor dies, we get one more cop read and discovering the scum role will allow us to make a marginally better call on Psy's miller claim. At this point numbers wise we'd start day 3 with 4 town, 2 scum. At this point there would be two confirmed town so there would be a choice of four candidates but we would have the extra cop read. It would be another mislynch and lose vote though. It could go either way.