RPGMAKER MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE GAME OVER [MAFIA]

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Plan 4 - Lynch Cap_H/Demonlord/Me (don't lynch me)
Risk: It's somewhere between 50%-66% successful based on just numbers. Though if we get it wrong, again the doctor could risk leaving tale ungaurded and protect someone else (endless circular logic).
I'm tempted to stick Psy in there as well but I really covered him in the first plan.
If we do this and hit scum, as usual doctor protects tale, Odd should choose Psy or one of the others in this group. Assuming this the night kills and outcomes are:
tale/no lynch: Advantage us, we get an extra cop read, which given the scum flip could virtually solve the game. Number wise we'd be at 5 town, 2 scum. We could flip Psy and with the cop reads solve the game. It'd be very hard to lose in this position.
OddRabbit gets night killed: Again with the information we gain, the game will be virtually solved.
OldPat/AlaskanEmily gets night killed: We get a cop read and then we then lynch scum number two. With this we'd know who the lawyer was (or that they are the last scum member) which with the cop reads might solve the game. If it doesn't we'll have a fair chance.
Cap_H/Fomar0153/Demonlord gets night killed: Bear in mind one us is already dead in this scenario, this would reveal the miller or if Psy is fake claiming and solve the game.

Odd as the confirmed town with no language barrier what do you think we should do?
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
Tbh, fomar arriving at many of the same conclusions as I (in a less chaotic fashion) makes me townread him and more convinced that it's indeed demon/psy/old (with an outside chance of emily being the last one instead of Old).

Is there a scenario you prefer?
demonlord is on my scum radar more than you. My preference is demonlord or Psy but I would support a lynch on OldPat or you if needed. I would not support a lynch on AlaskenEmily, if she isn't the real doctor then her scum game improved massively since last game. I would withhold my vote and go with no-lynch if it comes down to AlaskenEmily or no-lynch.

While I think it's really clear it is OldPat there does remain a small chance it's AlaskenEmily and I don't think the town outcomes are as good (with the aim towards winning the game, not survivng an extra day) going with the lynch fake doctor plan.

If we hit scum today, town generally has an ok to good chance of winning.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
sorry, if I missed it but i think there's one interesting number. Chances of Psy being miller vs chances of him being a wolf.
There are for candidates for the miller slot left with a possibility that Jero was the miller. That means he has a 20% chance of being the miller. His chance being the wolf is 50% tho, as there are 2 wolves among four of us.

I think lynching psy is the correct decision.

#lynch Psy
I really hoped you'd do something different.

If Psy is the miller, which makes you scum then getting Psy lynched wins the game for you.
If Psy is scum, then town you, with a good town read on me, knows that he is the correct target.
If you and Psy are both scum then you're bussing but you still appear on the correct side of everything but we get another day and more information and good town outcomes. So I doubt you are both scum.
Re-read what I just posted, in case anyone is confused I'm saying Cap's choice is a null-tell. It's correct for both town and scum versions of Cap.
Back for now.

Re: Psy check -
psy was close to solving odd's digital root problem. Then odd stated "Though in the wrong hands it could be pretty bad."
I felt like I need to check psy's alignment for whatever that is. Until odd revealed why and er...
Hi, I'm awake and reading.

Notes:
- At least one of 1 of is necessarily scum or I would've been quickhammered in my sleep
- I don't think cap_h and fomar can be on the same scumteam. If so, these last two pages are a pretty brilliant show. This means I have to accept the old thing that either cap+fakedoc bussed, or fomar beat me, but also any configuration of my scumteam must include Demonlord as scum
- I don't think scum-Fomar goes to these lengths to construct probability and list outcomes when it would be very, very easy for him to justify an off-the-cuff vote against me
- I think scum-Cap did indeed realize that demonlord is toast, by the numbers alone. Otherwise they would have to rig a vote against Fomar.

My case on AE as fakedoc:
- She was clearly lurking the thread to be able to counterclaim, but didn't have a vote on the OldPat train. I think this is scum holding back and waiting for OldPat to die without dirtying their hands. This is also AE's scum-MO.
- OldPat neglected to change his vote. If he was following orders from scumchat to claim, he would've done that as well. He even had an excuse to to do it, because I told him to.
- Her eagerness to gun for me today is telling, as she should know that there's a guaranteed kill in the other doc
- The previous thing from D1 -- she was more scummy than OldPat to begin with and I think the only difference between her behavior this game and last game is throwing down votes quickly as an effort to disguise her scum-MO

None of this affects my scumteam pick. It does increase my confidence that cap is scum, however - the alternative is scum-Fomar. My least confident read is probably the doc pick, even though I'm about 85% sure the real one is OldPat and the fake one is Emily.

I'm doubling back through the prospective plans for the day
That should read "at least 1 of AE, Demonlord" but RMN ate my brackets.


I think killing Demonlord today is low risk. He is numerically busted. If the scumteam is cap+fomar then town was doomed from the beginning, the acting is too good.

I think the lowest risk play is a no-kill today, Fomar's plan 2. There is no possibility of losing, and we gain a large amount of information tomorrow. Tale's copread is even more valuable with me in the open as I'm able to trust all positives. Even if it's negative then the nightkill will be meaningful -- killing the doc exposes a 100% scum, killing Odd likely solves the game with his 100% read, and killing Cap/Fomar in my eyes 100% clears the other.

#cancel
Oh, also -- with every role read and person dead, my claim as miller improves. If cap or fomar die as villager, then even with no prior knowledge, then Tale's scumread on me becomes more likely to /exonerate/ me -- scum would be lawyered up, and it'd be 50/50 from the remaining roles alone that I'm the miller.
Given your responses and everything I've already explained, I don't see you and Cap both being scum. Which means the town amongst you agrees with my demonlord read (and the scum is bussing). I think demonlord is the safest option if we lynch.

But... Psy that was the best option for scum Psy who knows Jeroen was the miller (1 in 3 chance as things stand but obviously scum are making an informed decision). Though again it was probably one of two best options for town Psy. Probably null tell over all.
Day 2 Unofficial Votecount

Oldpat - 0: AlaskanEmily
demonlord - 0: Cap_H
Oddrabbit - 0:
AlaskanEmily - 1 : OldPat, Psy_Wombats
Fomar - 0:
tale - 0:
Cap_H - 0:
Psy_Wombats - 3: demonlord, AlaskanEmily, Cap_H Cap_H

Not Voting: Oddrabbit, Fomar0153, tale, Psy_Wombats

With 8 alive it takes 5 to hammer.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
Psy, I don't find your case for w!Emily quite convincing. There are few assumptions I see as debatable at best. Like her lurking to counter claim. It's true that both claims happened surprisingly fast, but why would scum plan to do that? I can see myself doing something like that in a desperate situation but not on d1.

I believe that Fomar is town. In his long walls, which would be unnecessary if he were wolf and you town, there isn't a single point, which would show a hole in perspective.
The only thing I'm afraid of is that with all three of us scumreading Demonlord, something might be off. Like tale being scum, because tale feels quite scummy outside of his claim.
If I discredit that as a bastard mechanic it always leaves me with you and demon as wolves at this point. I can't help it.

author=psy_wombats
Oh, also -- with every role read and person dead, my claim as miller improves. If cap or fomar die as villager, then even with no prior knowledge, then Tale's scumread on me becomes more likely to /exonerate/ me -- scum would be lawyered up, and it'd be 50/50 from the remaining roles alone that I'm the miller.


true, but we're not getting there without wolves dying and we can't really get over 50% because of Jero.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
Psy, second (third) hole in your analysis. Take a look at votes. Do you think the whole wolfpack would vote you like this?
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6615
Fomar, what do you think about both me and psy calling demon wolf? To me it's a weird situation.
When re-reading and doing this vote count, it really stands out to be how easily AE swapped from someone (if she's town) she 100% knows is scum to someone with a viable miller claim super quickly. OldPat stuck with AE (opposite argument). I'm now less sure and about 50/50 on the fake doctor's identity.

demonlord's vote was straight up scum opportunism to end this quickly or bussing to get suspicion off him and be the first to make the very obvious vote against Psy. He also down plays the janitor's ability, I know I downplayed the janitor day 1 with us all knowing the power roles but I didn't want to word how bad it'd be for town if we were disadvanted without knowing the status of the miller. I didn't want to give scum the idea if it hadn't occured to them, as it was the last best move open to the janitor.

#lynch demonlord
author=Cap_H
Fomar, what do you think about both me and psy calling demon wolf? To me it's a weird situation.


I don't think you're both scum but it's possible (and my course of action would lead to a town loss in this case), I was hoping others would weigh in. With one of you bussing and one being town, I feel re-assured that my demon read is probably correct.

Also now with bold:
#lynch demonlord
@Cap: re AE, I think the quickclaim was because she believed the tide was about to turn against her as the next most probable kill and was attempting to get Pat hammered before that could happen.

I don't think it's impossible the wolves would get on top of me to introduce the appearance of a train. My position is extremely tenuous so it doesn't look scummy at all to pile me. Although, I admit it's not something I'd expect you to do -- I'd expect at least one scum to stay off for the hammer. But I think I'd revisit my doc choice before I revisited a Fomar vs Cap choice.
I also don't think it's weird that Demonlord is being hung out to dry. He's had heat all game, and all three of us are in a position where either he has to be scum, or the other two have to be.

Also, it's really easy to say "I think demonlord is definitely scum, sure, but I'll vote psy instead" when scum knows that killing me would end the game.
#lynch Demonlord, or I'd be guilty of doing the same thing.