RPGMAKER MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE GAME OVER [MAFIA]

I think it could also be worthwhile for the cop to claim if both he and the doctor survive until say day 3 if his results have a good likelihood of clearing people and leading to the right lynches.

I pretty much agree with everything that's been said though.

I was about to start doing the math given how long on average it'd take scum to find the doctor along with Fomar's accuracies but yeah, it doesn't work out -- plus it's possible we end up in a state where we don't know if Doc is dead or not.

we must resort to SOULREADs

#cancel

author=tale
Game is already a gambit for having an oracle, 100% accuracy role result if night action was submitted.

So if we were to accidentally lynched an oracle, it's a double edged sword. I hope that's taken account of your math simulation.

My maths was based on the game as it stands, the numbers would update after the first lynch, night kills etc. If the miller and lawyer both die then the cop is 100% accurate.

Oracle should target people they think are scum and not people they think are PRs. As long as they successfully stay away from PRs they shouldn't be too dangerous, I think.

Though if we wanted to completely mitigate the risk, we could also have the oracle self-target all the time. This would prevent them from outing a PR and also make them immune to being janitor'd. But we'd lose any chance of them outing scum as well.

author=Jeroen_Sol

author=Fomar0153
The ideal scenario for the oracle is that they get night killed and absorb the janitor's 1-shot because it'll be obvious they were the oracle even though we're not told.

You're right, they wouldn't even need to self-target for that. I hadn't considered that.

If they don't target anyone at all, we won't know if it was the oracle who got janitored.

#Cancel
Thank you for the clarification Fomar! Psy is right about players having flavor now. So I made a table based on flavor origin.

(????)
- AlaskanEmily
- Oddrabbit
- LizardmanPrincess

(2k/3)
Psy_Wombats - wayward androgyne with a cheap dye job
Cap_H - Space Funeral
Oldpat - Karma Flow

(rmn)
Jeroen_Sol - Plot Twister Herald

(VX Ace)
Fomar0153 - Ruby
demonlord_5000 - Umbral Soul
Tale - Oscar

Maybe odd is onto something.

#lynch Oldpat

author=Fomar0153

author=psy_wombats
Also, in the other d1 tradition of pointless setup speculation:

anyone thought about if follow-the-cop would work? My feeling is "no" given that there has to be some probability garbage applied to cop results, but I'm tempted to write a simulator to check it. "Break a setup" is on my bucket list and everything has been closed since forever.

Currently the cop is only ~78% accurate, I feel like the answer is not at the moment.

If the cop gets a town result then they can be ~83% sure it's correct.
If the cop gets a scum result then they can be ~67% sure it's correct.

If you received a vanilla town PM then you have a 25% chance of being the miller :(

What are you doing to get this math?

author=Jeroen_Sol
No, oracle always has a target. If you read the role, it says "the most recent target" will have their role revealed. I'm sure that's also why N0 existed and the target got rng'd if not submitted. It's probably worded like that to force the oracle to not mitigate their risk by not targetting anyone. But it doesn't state the oracle can't self-target, so yay loopholes.

Interesting, I wasn't thinking that a target would be chosen at random in that case. Also I already forgot that N0 happened.

author=Lizardman_Princess

author=Fomar0153
...math lacking any proof, which is worse than no math at all...

What are you doing to get this math?

Is that assuming a 50/50 chance of a lynch having already happened when the cop uses their ability?