[MAFIA] IS THIS WEREWOLF?

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This is AE scumpost, 4th vote on a train and no reference to any of the previous votes or arguments: https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/25302/?post=909635#post909635, plus my guess is an attempt to bait Atiya/Odd/Trihan to place a hammer vote.

I still think demon's likely scum, I just think AE's even likelier. (and the "no one hammered demon" argument doesn't hold with majority voting, so)
#cancel
#vote AlaskanEmily


author=Jeroen_Sol
But come on, 95%? If you're town, then you just want him to be town at this point just as much as I want the two of you to be scum.

Well yeah, of course, but it's waaay more likely and less wishful thinking than yours haha

@Atiya: Trihan and Odd are the only ones who haven't shown up. Although I'd request you /not/ vote for me, obviously. The current train on me is Jeroen's voting bloc and then my two scumreads.



Also, why is this day only 24 hours?
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
Agreed, why *is* this day 24 hours? I assume the intro day was extended to make sure everyone got to reply the first time? At the least, Muffle did ask if we needed more time yesterday. Folks, what do y'all think?

Psy seems to be the only one on the chopping block this day; we either kill them or we don't. That said, Emily is acting my goddamn presumptuous about Psy's MO. Losing Fomar as a seer seemed a hard loss right out the gate for town. But no-lynch on day one would be better than blindly killing someone off, and Emily did target me for taking back my vote against Odd.

There's also evidence that no, Psy wasn't the only one to suggest that idea. My initial vote to cancel was brought on by Dudesoft, not Psy. Granted, the context was hypocrisy on my end, but hey. I can't say there's not some spite in my pick, or that I'm not biased by who Psy put in their crosshairs. So tl;dr?

#lynch AlaskanEmily
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
First double-post of mine, to avoid getting DQ'd by editing. First off: "mighty goddamn presumptuous" is what I meant to say. Anyway.

Second? I was originally going to justify my claim against Emily further, but her worry about masons outing themselves checks out. Can you imagine that, in a game about blindly murdering villagers to try and kill werewolves, there's good reason to really assess and second-guess oneself? Whodathunk?

My vote against Emily stands. That said, let's not forget what our late seer had thought of. It's kinda convenient that he made all these educated guesses, and then happened to get killed on his half-hearted claim about being the seer.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Sorry, at work, catch up soon.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Actually, wait. Let me think about something. I haven't read like 90% of these posts, but I do know Fomar was the seer.

Okay, so, there's two mafia and the Sorceror on the Mafia's side, right? Correct me if I'm wrong.

Odd is Lycan(?).
Jeroen is Mason(?).
Dudesoft is Mason(?).
Fomar is Seer, but dead.

That's four mostly confirmed people. If bodyguard claims, then five of the ten are guaranteed. If Sorceror is like "Hey, I'm bodyguard", we can try and fact check it over the course of the days. Somehow, I guess, but at that point we can be certain that we can ignore both the Sorceror and the Bodyguard. If three people claim it, one of those three is scum, and one of the two remaining is also scum. If four claim it, we get one more confirmed town.

Anyways. if we have a scenario in which we have five confirmed town, and we hit one scum, the game is pretty much solved, right?

...Basically I'm saying bodyguard should claim. I'm not saying this because I want them to die. I'm saying this because I'm stupid and I think I'm doing something statistically smart, even when I'm probably not.

Anyways, back to work I go.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Okay, so Fomar was the seer. It was all but confirmed anyway, but a huge blow to lose him this early.

The possibilities as I see it, given last night's events, are:

1. We don't have a bodyguard.
2. We have a bodyguard, they didn't believe Fomar's roleclaim, and protected someone else.
3. We have a bodyguard, they believed Fomar's roleclaim but figured scum would go for someone else assuming scum would think Fomar would be protected, and protected someone else.
4. We have a bodyguard, and whether they believed Fomar or not they failed to submit a night action.

Can anyone else think of another scenario that accounts for Fomar dying unprotected given his all-but-confirmed status at EOD?

One thing's for sure; the nolynch yesterday was pretty much the only one we could safely get away with. Someone *has* to die today, and we need to be united to avoid a nolynch due to unsufficient votes for a majority, since we now know plurality doesn't matter.

I have no idea why psy is defending me so much; I appreciate that he reads me as town, obviously, but I don't think I've been acting so any moreso than any other player to the point where I would have warranted specific defending when there was heat on me yesterday. I don't get a scummy read from psy at the moment, but it's definitely a viable tactic to focus on someone else's towniness to mask your own scumread, so I've got an eye on him.

psy, interesting that you refer to "Jeroen's voting bloc"; do you think Dudesoft is just following whatever Jeroen says without making his own calls? I don't think that's particularly fair to Dudesoft considering he did explain his votes yesterday. Sure, he talked about backing up his mason brother, but he had good reasons for doing so.

I agree with Atiya that Emily's psy vote came kind of out of left field, though I'm not gonna lie I'm just as weirded out by his protectiveness of me. :P

I think before I vote I'm going to read back on Fomar's posts, there might be something there.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
"Anyways. if we have a scenario in which we have five confirmed town, and we hit one scum, the game is pretty much solved, right?"

I'm assuming we have 2 scum since 10 players with 1 scum would be horrendously unfair, so taking the worst-case scenario where every lynch we make hits town:

Day 2: 9 players: 7 town, 2 scum. Lynch 1 town
Night 2: scum kill a town
Day 3: 7 players: 5 town, 2 scum. Lynch 1 town
Night 3: scum kill a town
Day 4: 5 players: 3 town, 2 scum. Lynch 1 town

Scum win

So we'd have to mislynch three times to lose, which is a pretty good position to be in considering how many townies we know are safe. If we take Jeroen, Dudesoft and odd out of the equation we have 4 town and 2 scum; the odds of hitting 3 town in that list are astronomically low.

So technically someone doesn't *have* to die today, but a second nolynch wouldn't be a good idea as we're just letting scum narrow the gap for free at that point.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Also yeah, that day 4 couldn't actually happen because we can't mislynch on day 4 due to 3 town being confirmed, so I don't think it's possible for scum to win even if we don't lynch any of them until the MYLO day, which is even better. The only way we can lose is if one of the confirmed town players are lying and turn out to be scum. Right?
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Wait, shit. I'm not factoring in that the confirmed town might die during those nights. Fucking hell, I suck at this game. Just lynch me. XD
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Right, okay. Engaged my brain before opening my mouth this time. My original worst-case scenario was more-or-less correct, assuming our night losses are confirmed players. Sorry for the spam, everyone; I wish I could delete or edit this mess and start over.
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
Trihan, you might be on to something about the roles. Odd is very much trying to convince us that he's the lycan. It might be safe to assume that not every role was doled out, and some could be doubled up. We're also being fed the narrative that Jereon and Dudesoft are the masons, with Dudes confirming that claim. If town has no bodyguards, it's in danger. I assume that it's mostly town, one or two werewolves, and one sorcerer.

And I say this because I'm pretty sure I'm also a lycan.
author=Trihan
psy, interesting that you refer to "Jeroen's voting bloc"; do you think Dudesoft is just following whatever Jeroen says without making his own calls? I don't think that's particularly fair to Dudesoft considering he did explain his votes yesterday. Sure, he talked about backing up his mason brother, but he had good reasons for doing so.

No, I don't really think that, I was just being flippant.


author=oddRABBIT
...Basically I'm saying bodyguard should claim. I'm not saying this because I want them to die. I'm saying this because I'm stupid and I think I'm doing something statistically smart, even when I'm probably not.

No, they shouldn't claim, they should do their job and protect confirmed town / masons. I would be prettty skeptical of a bodyguard claim now anyway considering they let Fomar die, if they exist -- it's not necessarily sorceror who would fakeclaim.


Also, I'm (grudgingly) lowering my Trihan towniness percent, I completely forgot that the sorceror would also be strugging to understand scum logic and it'd sure give them an incentive to not vote against anyone.




If this day really does end in two hours, is there anyone who can commit to being around for it?

With 9 alive and effectively 3 scum, it'll take all but one town vote to kill scum, which is less than encouraging.
author=AtiyaTheSeeker
And I say this because I'm pretty sure I'm also a lycan.


By "pretty sure" what do you mean? Why would you be unsure?
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
I didn't realise how little time was left in the day. I'd better get my vote in soon.

Atiya, I second psy's question: what makes you "pretty sure" you're a lycan? I didn't think it was a secret role.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
psy, on the plus side the sorcerer doesn't know who the wolves are, so their day vote is effectively as helpful to us as a town one when we don't know who is scum and who isn't for sure. They're obviously going to err towards voting for people who aren't widely considered to be scum, which will be something to watch for. I can see why you lowered my town percentage as a result of realising that.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
#lynch AtiyaTheSeeker

Putting my vote on Atiya just now because I'm 99% sure Lycan would have been told they were, so saying you think you might be one is really suspicious.
It is extremely weird but there would be no reason for scum to make that claim right now.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Why do you say that? Scum will always have a reason to claim a town role that's difficult to counterclaim, and losing the seer makes lycan impossible to verify.
It's the timing. There was no heat at all on Atiya, and claiming that now makes us /more/ likely to go after them. Lycan/miller usually isn't verified, it's just killed.

What it does do is make more skeptical of Odd but w/e/

By my clock there are 40 minutes left.
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
Well, the "pretty sure" part was being facetious. So I'll straight-up say it to back up Trihan's thoughts that roles might not be dealt perfectly as listed. I am a lycan. I'm unsure if Odd's just joking around, given he claimed to be the sorcerer near the start. But if he's also lycan, then it confirms that roles were handed out in a unique fashion. Instead of all the unique roles (anything that's not "just" villager or "just werewolf") being all used, which could mean town doesn't have a bodyguard.

Ultimately, if Odd is or isn't lycan, it's no skin off my nose. With no seer remaining, lycans would only be "framed" as werewolves if viewed. I have no good reason to suspect Odd is scum, given his responses. Trihan, if you really think I'm scum, let my words through the game so far be a sign of my character. Then, if you're still worried, I won't blame you.