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Devlog 93: Steam's... challenges let's call it

It’s been a while since I’ve written a devlog. There are many reasons for that.
I never really know how many people actually read devlogs. I would imagine they’re likely the least attractive aspect of game development from people outside of the project for one thing. They are for me anyway so I would imagine I’m not the only one in that case.

On the other hand, I don’t think that going for too long without providing updates about the project gives out a good impression so I figured it’d write a bit about what’s been going on.

I’d say the biggest development is that the game is about to go on Early Access. Steam is nowhere near what it used to be and I think it’s closer to a public dump than ever with no quality control going on whatsoever. The problem with this, and that’s the frustrating part, is that even good games end up in the trash heap. What used to be a source of excitement and something to look forward to has sort of… diminished the glitter so to speak.

That’s something I have come to terms with. No matter how much I’d like to be able to provide my project on a platform which provides quality over quantity, there are no alternatives out there, well no viable ones anyway.

I resisted the idea that upon release, STX will likely get buried from the front page by countless DLC, free-to-pay games or shovelware made for easy money. That’s just the way things are however and I can’t rely on steam to provide me the spotlight I’m ultimately looking for. There could be a lot more to be said about this but I think people who are somewhat aware of the development of independent games know what’s going on.

Steam has no incentive to provide quality control. This is one symptom of a monopoly in just about any field. Allowing anyone to put anything up for sale is no issue for Valve. It’s not like publishers will go elsewhere if they’re not happy with the platform since there is no alternative. Hiring people to sift through the submissions is just not viable from a financial standpoint for them. I think I read that 40% of all Steam’s submission where in 2016? If nothing changes, it’s no stretch of the imagination that 2017 will see even more submission. At this rate, steam as a platform will likely become saturated which in turn might (hopefully) trigger enough of a disinterest in customers for Valve to consider rolling up their sleeves and restructure their platform in a way which focus more on quality projects and systematically rejects garbage.

This might come across as an elitist stance on things and maybe it is. I think there are plenty of talented developers out there for sure for feel the same as I do. We need quality control because where there are no rules or restrictions, there will always be people who’ll have no issue with transgressing boundaries repeatedly to the detriment of the “greater good”.

It’s not even that I’m looking forward to getting rich from this. Far from it. I do hope I can compensate the people who have worked on this and trusted me from the beginning.

This being said, I’m looking forward to going on the commercial route. People will have higher expectations and this can only push the game forward. I’m also thinking we’ll be getting more feedback as well. People tend to be more vocal when they’re money is on the line.

Anyhow, as an avid poker player, it’s not so much about the cards you get but how you play them. It’s up to me to make up the most out of Steam’s platform, regardless of how I feel about its defining characteristics.

Basically, my objectives for 2017:
-get more exposure for the game
-get more feedback, negative or positive
-make a minimal amount to cover the administrative costs
-have some more money go to people who participated on the game
-get on steam Early Access

Thank you for reading!

Posts

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Well, technically you do have a view counter written in small font right next to the date, though it obviously doesn't tell you how many people have actually read it to the end.

Otherwise, I certainly get what you're saying. I've been subscribed to Jim Sterling's YouTube channel for exactly a year now, and it's certainly opened my eyes to how big of a problem this is. Well, this, and using Steamspy for about 1.5 years, and seeing how unpredictable game sales can be. I like to think that I got the basic rules predicting success or failure sorted, but often, you'll never know.

On the bright side of things, I do think that there are some positive changes happening, though not as fast as one might like. Valve did make some changes to the review system, for one, though it doesn't seem like it affected much. Then, it appears people have gotten used to refunds since they were introduced last year, and will use them when they think they paid for rubbish: if you were to go through Jim's playlist for the year, and look up how well the various generic, slapped-together, horrible games he played have done on Steamspy since, you'll see that nearly all are stuck at ~1000 sales or so, regardless of how much time had passed since their release.

Of course, plenty of games that are technically competent, but simply appear too similar/inferior to established games and/or too expensive relative to said competition will often suffer the same fate, and it seems like this can now happen regardless of your genre (games in more niche genres like isometric CRPG's had it easier for a while due the lack of competitors, but it's hardly the case now.) I suppose the best you can do now is to get in touch with the YouTubers great and small alike, as well as the more open-minded gaming publications (Hardcore Gamer and RockPaperShotgun are two examples where I think you might have a good chance.)

Other than that, good luck, and I hope you'll succeed at what you're planning!



Hello NTC3, thanks for the reply. I was considering stopping my game development updates at RMN due to lack of interaction with the userbase. Somewhat feels like I'm talking to myself at times. So I do appreciate you not only reading but also replying.

I also watch Jim Sterlin's channel. He's my favorite youtuber. I appreciate his integrity and no-bullshit attitude.

I like to think that I got the basic rules predicting success or failure sorted, but often, you'll never know.


I think that would certainly make you part of the minority. Understanding and predicting sales is nothing short of a complex science as it involves a lot of variables which themselves are hard not only to identify but to properly scope and make predictions about. Good on you for having a good understanding of things like that. I must admit I am more insecure about making such predictions.

Then, it appears people have gotten used to refunds since they were introduced last year, and will use them when they think they paid for rubbish


I agree, thank god for refunds. Hopefully customers can tell within 10 minutes if they're playing shovelware. Refunds was a very good move on Valve's part to protect their customers.

Not to sound like a perfectionist but, although customers are not really at risk on Steam, there's still the issue of having too many games accepted which hurts, I believe, every developer out there, even the best ones. I'd be petty to simply criticize a business practice without providing a possible solution. Mine is simple: sacrifice profit and hire individuals with clear guidelines for curating the game gallery. Having customers do Valve's work (voting on Greenlight) is nothing short of sleazy (I wrote lazy at first but there's more to it). It's a way not to hire people to filter the content of their platform. That's all there is to it.

This leads to various scams like giving gifts for votes and so on which of course wouldn't happen if employees were in charge. Not everything should be up to the public, certainly not the content of a platform to sell goods.

, you'll see that nearly all are stuck at ~1000 sales or so, regardless of how much time had passed since their release.


I didn't know you could tell how many sales a game has made. 1000 seems like a tremendous amount! On the bright side, better put together games probably have better results.

I've been told the best advertisement was to make something good enough that people will talk about it. I think I'll invest my efforts in this endeavor and see how it goes rather than contact youtubers for now.

Thank you, my objectives are very modest so achieving them shouldn't be too hard.


author=Toaster_Team
I like to think that I got the basic rules predicting success or failure sorted, but often, you'll never know.

I think that would certainly make you part of the minority. Understanding and predicting sales is nothing short of a complex science as it involves a lot of variables which themselves are hard not only to identify but to properly scope and make predictions about. Good on you for having a good understanding of things like that. I must admit I am more insecure about making such predictions.


Well, I wanted to reply to this earlier, but the part above made me go and recheck the stuff I wrote down on this for myself before against the Steamspy data, to be extra sure I'm not missing anything. Turns out I was: mainly, I rather underestimated the Summer/Christmas sales' impact, and how they can benefit a game even 2 years or so after release. With that mind, I'm now confident enough to list the following points:

* The median sales for a game at the start of last year amounted to 3000 (Galyonkin, the creator of Steamspy.) I haven't looked up the latest number, but after 40% of Steam's contents were released last year, I can only assume it's gone down. However, that number is obviously dragged down by many "Jimpression-level" games hardly anyone wants to buy (there are some unfortunate exceptions, like "God's Chain" somehow managing to get 77,000, which I hope is a bug, or a result of some enormous discount/bundle). A perfectly average indie game, however, one that works, (largely) free of bugs but doesn't stand out, will usually get 1-3k in the first month or two of sales, then sorta stay there for a while, then generally manage to accumulate ~10,000-15,000 in a year since its release (though it can fluctuate a lot more depending on how well you manage sales and discounts.)

** The "perfectly average game" above likely has a userscore of 70-80%, or so. The median userscore is in that range, at "Mostly Positive" reviews. If the game works, is not bugged, is not considered overpriced, and didn't disappoint the pre-existing fanbase, then getting lower then that is unlikely. However, Steam users themselves know this, and so mixed-negative critical reviews will almost always trump the high userscore and cripple its sales. When speaking of a "perfectly average game", I assume one that failed to interest enough critics in it to get reviews from 4+ Metacritic-approved critics, and thus has no Metascore displayed on its Steam page. Metascores make things more interesting, though not necessarily the way creator might want.

** Broadly speaking: it's still possible to be successful and explode (~100,000+ quickly) on Steam without getting any Metascore until months later, if ever, though that is highly dependent on knowing your audience/plain luck. Getting a red Metascore, however, instantly cuts off sales and they don't come back beyond a trickle, ever. "Yellow" scores in the fifties are only a little better. 60-67 slows the game down, but can be overcome. 67-75 doesn't really boost or hinder: a game which got that far is in the top third of Steam anyway, and can have above-average to very successful performance. Having good (75+) or great (85+) reviews, however, doesn't guarantee immediate success: often, if you're little-known indie and/or in a less popular genre like point-and-clicks, people will put you in a wishlist and wait until sales approach.

Technobabylon was a good example of what I'm talking about: that game got good reviews (82) and very high userscores, yet sales were stubbornly slow for a long time: 3,000 after release (May 2015), 7,000 later, ~9,000 throughout 2016...until, finally, I checked its stats after a recent Christmas sale, and it's now at ~100,000. The Magic Circle is another example I know of which went like that: good game, good reviews (79 Metacritic; our Riot Pixels gave 85 and Riot Top award, which they hardly ever do), but was at 5,000-7,000 from July 2015 release until about April 2016, when they finally jumped to about 80,000 (now at 100,000).

So in all, I hope this helped you, and was worth the three-week wait. Having modest expectations is certainly helpful for survival in the industry: I've seen several indie studios on Steamspy whose games had tiny sales until their 4th-5th game suddenly eclipsed all the previous ones (though the other way around is probably more common). I cannot predict how successful your game will be, but I can certainly say that you have an advantage with your distinct, good-looking, nicely animated graphics. After all, games with good-looking screenshots and well-put together trailers most certainly have a significant starting advantage over others, especially in the absence of reviews and such at the start.
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