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It lives!

I'm glad this wasn't the end!

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

I was worried constantly after N1 that town would have a rolecop and/or a doctor. Turns out I needn't be worried.

I felt very secure after D1 when it came to the lynch. At the time, I was convinced that if I wasn't on the Eggbert train I would be suspicious (and let's be honest, those who weren't on the train were prime suspects most of the game). I didn't anticipate that the lynch required every single person active at the time to be on it. Sorry Eggbert! But at least your death meant victory was all but assured.

author=Gourd_Clae
reading scum chat and realizing your tactic for a hot second was to kill ppl with the most votes cast makes TOTAL sense. It would look like targeting active ppl, bc in a way you are but is more about roles than activity. Very interesting! Also think it's funny you thought me or demon might flip on you. I was more convinced that you were town than I was of demon being town!


Yeah, it was convenient that every night the people with the highest votes cast also happened to look like good NK targets too. Then I realized that might actually be a good metric for choosing NK in general.

My first NK, Fomar, was because he felt like a good target, but also because he mentioned something about "why so many votes cast so early". That made me think he might have a PR, since it wasn't public knowledge that powers were charged by casting votes and that might make him think about the total number of votes cast.

I also wasn't so much sure that Gourd or Demon would turn on me, but more that I thought it more likely that an endgame of just Gourd, Demon, and me would make me a much more likely suspect since all three of us were on the Eggbert train. I really wanted the endgame to be Tale and/or Shinan, Gourd or Demon, and me. But I guess I was worried for nothing.

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

Yeah, I think you're right.

#vote Ozzy

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

Ah, OK. For today, I don't think that changes our reasoning.

I think we already know the plan. We should lynch today, and then tomorrow we have the option to not lynch if something comes up. Realistically we get 2 more lynches either way.

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

It's late at night for me and I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that revealing information is almost always in favor of town. Scum already knows is who, and that's what town is trying to figure out.

There are definitely situations where that's not what you want to do, but I believe those are exceptional cases. Also, I would say that ideally you don't hint at this kind of thing unless you're already decided.

If someone really is confirmed as town, I think it's beneficial to reveal here because it can only improve accuracy of lynches.

author=demonlord5000
Assuming there were 2 scum, we should probably play to where we outnumber them 2 to 1. This means we can skip a lynch at one point if we think it will help narrow it down which can absolutely work if there is a way we can get information that narrows down scum while at the same time reducing the amount of people that we suspect.

At least I wouldn't think there would be 3 in a 9 person game. I would still vote today today, and only consider no lynch on day 4 though.


From what I said before:

OK, a little math:
It's D3, and we have 6 alive. If we lynch today, then D4 we will have 4. Assuming only 1 scum left: milo D4, and lylo D5.


If we lynch today and we'll be at milo (not lynch-or-lose) so I think that means we can afford to skip 1 lynch overall.

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

author=Gourd_Clae
I mean we have lives to spare we could just kill ozzy. It rubs me the wrong way that ozzy started being more active today just to start pointing fingers at people. In spirit, I think my vote is on ozzy.


OK, a little math:
It's D3, and we have 6 alive. If we lynch today, then D4 we will have 4. Assuming only 1 scum left: milo D4, and lylo D5.

So we get at most two tries to lynch scum. I don't think we can afford to miss them. Like I said before, I'm not against an Ozzy lynch if that's where it goes.

author=demonlord5000
If Shinan, eggbert put his partner at 3 which is absolutely not ideal or neccessary on day 1 for scum to do. The one redeeming factor for ozzy for me right now is he's not going after easy targets. It would be very risky for scum to go after psy when everyone else was looking at other targets. Tales an easier target, but we all have reason to suspect.


If Psy was still a suspect after actually hammering scum D1 with almost no time left, why does this discount a Shinan+Eggbert team?

author=Cap_H
Deadline is either in 35 or 59 hours.


What does this mean

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

At the very least, this means that scum either doesn't have investigative powers, or it was a one-shot or something. Honestly I still don't have a great feeling about Shinan or Ozzy but I'm not really sure of anything. Mathematically we're better off doing a lynch than just waiting I think (even a random choice has a chance to hit last scum, and I think we can do a lot better than random odds).

author=demonlord5000
Rip psy. Interesting choice though considering psy looked the worst on the egg train. I can only think of two reasons here.

1. Throw shade on ozzy
2. It's actually a double bluff and it is ozzy.


Maybe. I didn't feel like Ozzy looked all that great before this, so it is a little odd for this to point that way. But maybe that is the point?

author=OzzyTheOne
My main suspect should only be tale now, but with him surviving getting day lynched, I don't know what to think.


Do you think that implies scum was on the Tale train? Or I guess, why would Tale not getting lynched mean he is less likely to be scum to you?

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

author=psy_wombats
Fomar is dead because he was the towniest-looking person alive. He appeared out of nowhere at the end of the day, swapped his vote, and helped secure the kill. If no one had responded to me, we wouldn't have been able to do anything.


It would make sense to either be this, or maybe a random choice between people who were active on D1.

I do find it a bit unfortunate he made himself a target like that when he was a PR.

Right now I get good vibes Gourd, Psy, and Demon, for reasons others have said (on the Eggbert train when it wasn't necessary especially). Tale seems neutral to me (no scum vibes but not much in general), Ozzy seems meh, but I usually get mixed vibes from Ozzy so seems normal? I don't like his reasoning on Psy, but it doesn't really seem bad faith either.

author=psy_wombats
I don't think it's Shinan. Eggbert voting for him at that point would be nonsensical.


I'm less sure of that. It's possible that Eggbert's goal was to be sure that there was a vote linking them at least once, and with that goal in mind Eggbert kind of didn't consider the overall number? Editing your post really smells of being new to this format, and this could be the result of someone more experienced coaching him.

On the face of it, I'm actually the least happy with Shinan given his last post. If you're going to post only once per day, that's about the least you could put into it.

I'm not super strong in this read, but it's my strongest feeling at the moment.

#vote Shinan

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

author=psy_wombats
IMO, anyone who was on the Eggbert train early is not suspicious (demonlord5000, Gourd_Clae, AlaskanEmily). And Fomar, obviously. I was kind of hoping I got nightkilled because out of all the people on that vote, I probably look the worst.


Also being honest, this has crossed my mind. I can imagine scum being in a hard position after failing to split the vote between Eggbert and Shinan, but still revealing they are around near end of day and not wanting to clearly stand in the way of the lynch.

But thinking more about it, pretending to be AFK wouldn't have been super hard to do to avoid delivering the hammer, given how close it was on time (we actually went like an hour overtime, didn't we?). So I'm inclined to think that the hammer would have been unnecessary for scum, and the benefit would be not lynching D1 and specifically not lynching scumbuddy. So I think Psy is OK.

Advance Wars Mafia (Game Over - Mafia Wins) [MAFIA]

This is why you always ignore Liberty and lynch D1. Also didn't we get a scum lynch D1 before, when I ran sheriff mafia?

The Eggbert votes pretty much are the "who was around D1" list though. Though (meta warning) I would consider this a normal amount of input from Shinan. I would like to hear more from Tale and Ozzy at least. And maybe lynch Shinan because that would be too easy for him if he was scum :X

So I guess I would lean towards someone who hasn't posted a lot, given that everyone who did post showed up to just barely cause the lynch to happen.