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Fomar0153
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Hi I'm Fomar0153. I like working on the gameplay aspects of video games.
A Stolen Love and the Fo...
A long-awaited marriage ceremony is interrupted by the archdemon of rebirth, intent on keeping her vow to your lover.
A long-awaited marriage ceremony is interrupted by the archdemon of rebirth, intent on keeping her vow to your lover.
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[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
GMT+1
I did think about lurking, but the hours required that PA would have had to lurk would have been considerable and his activity has been really consistent between 3pm and 9pm. I imagine he just keeps a good sleep scheldule.
I did think about lurking, but the hours required that PA would have had to lurk would have been considerable and his activity has been really consistent between 3pm and 9pm. I imagine he just keeps a good sleep scheldule.
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
author=Fomar0153
We still have plenty of time, I'm leaning more to Shinan was a deliberately calculated play.
People who looked more scummy following a Shinan kill:
AlaskanEmily, tale, myself
Everyone else who aren't confirmed town:
oddrabbit, PlatinumAshes, demonlord
Assuming killing Shinan was a calculated move, I can't see it allowing a scum PlatinumAshes to win, if they some how survive to the final three they'd be lynched based on everything that's happened so far. It's unlikely that future night kills will be sub-optimal otherwise scum is pretty much guarenteed to lose. If we were lynching randomly then by not lynching a confirmed town they slashed their odds of winning to 1 in 3.
Anyway the two people who have probably benefitted were demonlord who I felt was town and oddrabbit who I was neutral on.
Anyone else got any new thoughts now we've had more time?
Originally posted:
https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24686/?post=888074#post888074
@demon
Everything fits for me now, you beneffited massively from the Shinan night kill, and you had no choice with kitten as there was a big chance you'd be found out.
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
author=Fomar0153
Night 1: 08:01 PM - 05:24 PM
Night 2: 08:39 PM - 11:37 PM
Night 3: 12:09 AM - 02:24 AM
Night 3 is the one of interest, I analaysed the last 5 pages of mine, demonlord5000's and platinunashes posts. This is platinumashes's activity:
He would have had to stay up over three hours later than any of his latest activity in order to submit his night kill. Additionally kittenfood revealed her full role at 10:45 my time, nearly two hours later than any of his latest activity. This is why I conclude that platinumashes is confirmed town.
I'll put the rest of the data behind a hide tag as all it shows is that both myself and demonlord have been around during all the night phases. I also did three pages of cave dog analysis before deciding that it was probably the case that the final night action on the first night came in after he went to bed.
My data:
demonlord5000's data:
cave dog's data:
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
Night 1: 08:01 PM - 05:24 PM
Night 2: 08:39 PM - 11:37 PM
Night 3: 12:09 AM - 02:24 AM
But bear in mind more people had actions night 1 and night 2.
I need to convert my findings into something I can upload which will take me a little while but here is my main finding; PlatinumAshes is confirmed town, more so for me than Odd is.
My current feelings:
Demonlord 80% chance of being scum
Odd 19% chance of being scum
PlatinumAshes 1% chance of being scum
I guess I owe PA an apolagy I have been pursuing him since pretty much the beginning.
The other thing that stuck out like a sore thumb going through pages and pages of posts was that demonlord changed him playstyle hugely after I narrowed down the scum candidates to a point where it was mathematically impossible for scum to win. Before that he was much more passive and laying low, not he is actively trying to start lynches and his post count jumped massively.
And then there is this:
He cancelled his vote on me because I might hammer myself... If he thinks I'm scum why would I do that?
And yes you did cancel your lynch on the scum role cop when it looked like he was doomed.
I regret hammering Piano, if you go look at the post times, I think the post difference was 3 minutes (which given how it doesn't tell us second it could have been as low as 121 seconds), which allows for the time I started my post then checked the count (albeit missing PA's vote). Since then I've been refreshing before posting any lynches.
So I'm going back to making graphs to show you why I think PA is confirmed town but in the mean time I am confident enough having seen the data to do this:
#lynch demonlord5000
Night 2: 08:39 PM - 11:37 PM
Night 3: 12:09 AM - 02:24 AM
But bear in mind more people had actions night 1 and night 2.
I need to convert my findings into something I can upload which will take me a little while but here is my main finding; PlatinumAshes is confirmed town, more so for me than Odd is.
My current feelings:
Demonlord 80% chance of being scum
Odd 19% chance of being scum
PlatinumAshes 1% chance of being scum
I guess I owe PA an apolagy I have been pursuing him since pretty much the beginning.
The other thing that stuck out like a sore thumb going through pages and pages of posts was that demonlord changed him playstyle hugely after I narrowed down the scum candidates to a point where it was mathematically impossible for scum to win. Before that he was much more passive and laying low, not he is actively trying to start lynches and his post count jumped massively.
And then there is this:
author=demonlord5000
I doubt anyone would accidentally hammer but yeah I can. Fomar has a knack for hammering since he very nearly hammered psy before I cancelled, and later on hammered piano before he could defend himself.
#cancel
He cancelled his vote on me because I might hammer myself... If he thinks I'm scum why would I do that?
And yes you did cancel your lynch on the scum role cop when it looked like he was doomed.
I regret hammering Piano, if you go look at the post times, I think the post difference was 3 minutes (which given how it doesn't tell us second it could have been as low as 121 seconds), which allows for the time I started my post then checked the count (albeit missing PA's vote). Since then I've been refreshing before posting any lynches.
So I'm going back to making graphs to show you why I think PA is confirmed town but in the mean time I am confident enough having seen the data to do this:
#lynch demonlord5000
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
Aww, sorry Emily.
That was a quick night, going to go through the suspects past posts to see who is active between 12am and 2:30am my time.
That was a quick night, going to go through the suspects past posts to see who is active between 12am and 2:30am my time.
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
Sorry one last thought, we don't need to say how we'll vote tomorrow, you can just tell us who to vote for to trigger the double elimination.
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
[MAFIA] Prisoner's Dilemma. Game Over
author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
tactician where i can kill someone if i predict who they vote the next day."
We could use that to eliminate 2 suspects tomorrow (if emily isn't the final scum) which will increase the confirmed town to uncomfirmed town ratio, assuming you survive the night.
If PA, demon and myself state now which of us three we'll vote for tomorrow e.g.
Fomar votes for PA
Demon votes for Fomar
PA votes for demon
You can tell us tomorrow who you chose, whomever it is does that vote and then we lynch someone else and we can speed up the process.
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