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[MAFIA] GAME OVER - FREQUENCY MAFIA
Posts
Fomar0153
16396
Fomar0153
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CloseAt time like this we must remember that age old rule of mafia: people who hate maths are scum (either literally and/or figuratively).
I feel it's okay to hate math, just not to hate people for liking math. That's not cool. Also, CAVE has been scum twice in a row. The dice decided in each case, and he correctly predicted both times. Fomar, I think the odds of him rolling scum a third time are less than 0.25 percent. I don't know what the actual percentage is. I just rounded to 12 since for Spy v. Spy, I had 12 players.
Fomar0153
16396
The odds (assuming 3 scum 10 town, all to 2 s.f.):
Once: 23%
Twice: 5.3%
Thrice: 1.2%
Four times: 0.28%
But you are looking it the wrong way, those odds are for an individual, there are 13 players. The odds of one player out of the thirteen being scum four times in a row is 3.7%.
The other issue is that being scum in a previous game (or four games) doesn't impact this one, the events are independent. Currently we all have a 23% chance of being scum - so Cave has currently a 23% chance of being scum five times in a row.
Once: 23%
Twice: 5.3%
Thrice: 1.2%
Four times: 0.28%
But you are looking it the wrong way, those odds are for an individual, there are 13 players. The odds of one player out of the thirteen being scum four times in a row is 3.7%.
The other issue is that being scum in a previous game (or four games) doesn't impact this one, the events are independent. Currently we all have a 23% chance of being scum - so Cave has currently a 23% chance of being scum five times in a row.
author=Hexatona
Hah! Sure
#Lynch Esby
But if he says "I'm a little piggy, oink oink oink" I'll pick Cavedog instead
Why Cave?
Also, scripts belong in Resources section of the site.
Because I pick him every game I play. It's pretty much traditional. At this point I have no reason to pick anyone over anyone else, so why not go with my default.
The chance of him rolling scum is always the same, it's just the probability of it happening multiple times in a row, which is absurd. We should base our reads on that, tho. So, what Fomar said.
There's not much else to comment on. There are little details, which make Gourd (kicking off ball), Piano (jumping on things and pushing the game) and Fomar (activity, being impatiant) look little better than the rest.
Hexatona's pisition feels little off, but there's not much of a reason behind this.
Demon's post on setup reads like: "Yeah, let's post about that, it's what do as town." It might be a complete tinfoil on my side and I need to see more from him.
So, pretty much nothing but these are some things we can all think about, talk about.
There's not much else to comment on. There are little details, which make Gourd (kicking off ball), Piano (jumping on things and pushing the game) and Fomar (activity, being impatiant) look little better than the rest.
Hexatona's pisition feels little off, but there's not much of a reason behind this.
Demon's post on setup reads like: "Yeah, let's post about that, it's what do as town." It might be a complete tinfoil on my side and I need to see more from him.
So, pretty much nothing but these are some things we can all think about, talk about.
author=ESBYBut if he says "I'm a little piggy, oink oink oink" I'll pick Cavedog insteadi'll never squeal
Pffft, nice
Also, total aside, at an old work, this one guy won the 50/50 draw every. single. time. Like we did it at least 8 times. I know the odds are different with tickets and all, but just like at a roulette wheel, the history is irrelevant for what's coming up next.
Having said that, and all other fun stuff aside, in my experience a lot of scum players can't help but post early, so gourd and piano do seem the most suspect in my eyes.
Having said that, and all other fun stuff aside, in my experience a lot of scum players can't help but post early, so gourd and piano do seem the most suspect in my eyes.
@piano Yeah, I think cap is fine. If he's acting like he does every game then dismissing other players is a null tell at best.
@Hex I don't think the "scum players post first" thing is solid logic, but you should probably include Ozzy on that list while you're at it!
I agree: lynch the math hater!
Also, a thing I don't understand... What actually are cave's chances of being scum? You said like 3 different stats. It looked like you settled on the 23% chance (because we all had a 23% chance of being scum this game) but wouldn't it be the .24% chance because he is an individual who got cast as scum 4 times in a row? Not that makes sense because the chances of something happen shouldn't go down just because of its history should it?
@Hex I don't think the "scum players post first" thing is solid logic, but you should probably include Ozzy on that list while you're at it!
author=Fomar0153
At time like this we must remember that age old rule of mafia: people who hate maths are scum (either literally and/or figuratively).
I agree: lynch the math hater!
Also, a thing I don't understand... What actually are cave's chances of being scum? You said like 3 different stats. It looked like you settled on the 23% chance (because we all had a 23% chance of being scum this game) but wouldn't it be the .24% chance because he is an individual who got cast as scum 4 times in a row? Not that makes sense because the chances of something happen shouldn't go down just because of its history should it?
The only thing that seemed slightly off to me this game is how piano basically acknowledged cap's behavior as being a null tell in the same post he voted to lynch cap - then immediately backed off when fomar acknowledged the same thing?
demonlord5000
680
Not much to say except down with the math hater. You can lynch for just about anything on day 1.
Piano being aggressive this game is noteworthy, but it's been said that piano plays cowardly as scum. Cant easily check who said that cause I'm still stuck with mobile. It wasn't this game though. For now, I don't think piano or cap are scum as of right noe.
Piano being aggressive this game is noteworthy, but it's been said that piano plays cowardly as scum. Cant easily check who said that cause I'm still stuck with mobile. It wasn't this game though. For now, I don't think piano or cap are scum as of right noe.
the reason math is bad is because it is potentially yet another smokescreen scum can use to avoid engaging with the actual content of the game
author=Fomar0153author=AlaskanEmilyI totally agree. Lynching on day 1 provides information and an actual chance to eliminate one of the scum.
#lynch Gourd_ClaeAlways lynch D1. Any hesitation at all is punishable by lynching.
#lynch Gourd
I don't normally have time to check RMN before work but we're doing a bring and share today so I was was up early. Back in several hours.
this is a bad vote as far as first 24 hours of d1 goes, as is AE's, but fomar's extra bad, because gourd was actually like, voting someone.
VOTE COUNT
Gourd_Clae (2): AlaskanEmily,Fomar0153, psy_wombats
Liberty (2): OzzyTheOne, Frogge
ESBY (4): Gourd_Clae, Hexatona, Fomar0153, pianotm
OzzyTheOne (1): ESBY
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK (1): Cap_H
Demonlord5000 (0):pianotm
Cap_H (0):pianotm
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to hammer.
If someone finds a discrepancy with my vote count and the actual voting statistics, I apologize, I'm still learning how this works.
Gourd_Clae (2): AlaskanEmily,
Liberty (2): OzzyTheOne, Frogge
ESBY (4): Gourd_Clae, Hexatona, Fomar0153, pianotm
OzzyTheOne (1): ESBY
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK (1): Cap_H
Demonlord5000 (0):
Cap_H (0):
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to hammer.
If someone finds a discrepancy with my vote count and the actual voting statistics, I apologize, I'm still learning how this works.
@demom Tbf, I don't think it would be notable if piano were acting aggressively. He tends to act aggressively when he is town. I'm just not sure how to classify his actions so far. The way he backed down seemed weird is all I'm saying!
@cave How do you know?
Side note, the whole math thing seemed weird. I'm not sure exactly who should seem suspicious to me, but;
I feel like fomar might have suggested the vote as a joke, but then Hex actually took him up on the offer. Though I guess fomar then proceeded to cast a vote on esby as well. Looking at either Hex or Fomar might be a good idea?
I think the "math is a smokescreen for actually scumhunting" thing is valid but both hex and fomar seemed to be scumhunting.
@cave How do you know?
Side note, the whole math thing seemed weird. I'm not sure exactly who should seem suspicious to me, but;
I feel like fomar might have suggested the vote as a joke, but then Hex actually took him up on the offer. Though I guess fomar then proceeded to cast a vote on esby as well. Looking at either Hex or Fomar might be a good idea?
I think the "math is a smokescreen for actually scumhunting" thing is valid but both hex and fomar seemed to be scumhunting.
