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ADVANCE WARS MAFIA (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS) [MAFIA]
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tale
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AlaskanEmily
561
At the very least, this means that scum either doesn't have investigative powers, or it was a one-shot or something. Honestly I still don't have a great feeling about Shinan or Ozzy but I'm not really sure of anything. Mathematically we're better off doing a lynch than just waiting I think (even a random choice has a chance to hit last scum, and I think we can do a lot better than random odds).
Maybe. I didn't feel like Ozzy looked all that great before this, so it is a little odd for this to point that way. But maybe that is the point?
Do you think that implies scum was on the Tale train? Or I guess, why would Tale not getting lynched mean he is less likely to be scum to you?
author=demonlord5000
Rip psy. Interesting choice though considering psy looked the worst on the egg train. I can only think of two reasons here.
1. Throw shade on ozzy
2. It's actually a double bluff and it is ozzy.
Maybe. I didn't feel like Ozzy looked all that great before this, so it is a little odd for this to point that way. But maybe that is the point?
author=OzzyTheOne
My main suspect should only be tale now, but with him surviving getting day lynched, I don't know what to think.
Do you think that implies scum was on the Tale train? Or I guess, why would Tale not getting lynched mean he is less likely to be scum to you?
Maybe it is shinan that nightkill seems kind of disconnected from what was going on yesterday
That said, ozzy suddenly popping up to be active is interesting. And then going for tale who was definitely going to be reconsidered today? Very strange vibes.
That said, ozzy suddenly popping up to be active is interesting. And then going for tale who was definitely going to be reconsidered today? Very strange vibes.
Shinan
4314
Damn, the day ended too quickly yesterday. I woke up in the morning to see if there would be anyone to kill (because obviously killing is always the right thing to do) and the day had just run out. I am apparently not good with the checking of day length.
However. Today I am more certain than ever.
#vote OzzyTheOne
However. Today I am more certain than ever.
#vote OzzyTheOne
Very official vote counting count
tale (1): OzzyTheOne
OzzyTheOne (1): Shinan
Not voting: tale, Gourd_Clae, AlaskanEmily, demonlord5000
Deadline is either in 35 or 59 hours.
tale (1): OzzyTheOne
OzzyTheOne (1): Shinan
Not voting: tale, Gourd_Clae, AlaskanEmily, demonlord5000
Deadline is either in 35 or 59 hours.
I mean we have lives to spare we could just kill ozzy. It rubs me the wrong way that ozzy started being more active today just to start pointing fingers at people. In spirit, I think my vote is on ozzy.
@Emily ignore my first few posts of the day, I was under the impression that tale survived due to some role, I didn’t realize that we has to hammer to kill.
@Shinan none of your limited posts has any substance to it, could you explain why you want to vote me instead of just using hunches or following the general consensus that I seem scummy for some reason?
@Gourd I’m more active because I’m not forgetting about the game. At this point, I’m damned if I am active, damned if I’m not it seems. Also, if you feel that we have lives to spare, then stop beating around the bush and vote for me, no need to stall the game with indecision.
Also, if y’all truly believe I would kill psy as scum, you’ve been had, scum clearly killed psy to incriminate me.
@Shinan none of your limited posts has any substance to it, could you explain why you want to vote me instead of just using hunches or following the general consensus that I seem scummy for some reason?
@Gourd I’m more active because I’m not forgetting about the game. At this point, I’m damned if I am active, damned if I’m not it seems. Also, if you feel that we have lives to spare, then stop beating around the bush and vote for me, no need to stall the game with indecision.
Also, if y’all truly believe I would kill psy as scum, you’ve been had, scum clearly killed psy to incriminate me.
Having said that, my main suspect is still tale. We needed one more to hammer last day, and that either means scum was already on his train, or he is scum and that’s why he didn’t get hammered.
I’m starting to sus Shinan as well now, because he’s just coasting along the game, not really playing it.
I’m starting to sus Shinan as well now, because he’s just coasting along the game, not really playing it.
author=OzzyTheOne
@Gourd I’m more active because I’m not forgetting about the game. At this point, I’m damned if I am active, damned if I’m not it seems. Also, if you feel that we have lives to spare, then stop beating around the bush and vote for me, no need to stall the game with indecision..
Just wanted to avoid getting your count too high in case I wasn't around and scum wanted to hammer you but as long as I have your blessing!
#vote Ozzy
All I ask is for there to be more discussion before deciding on lynching me, that way you can get better reads in case I get lynched, or even catch scum whilst I'm in the progress of being lynched.
demonlord5000
680
I'm off work here now. Consider my vote spiritually on ozzy. It's a bit too early to end the day I think.
The big problem we ran into is tale/shinon have been cruising by while saying nothing, and Ozzy did that the first 2 days as well. I've already given my analysis on the votes before.
My voting priority right now I think would be Ozzy > tale > shinon > everyone else. It's really hard to narrow down when you don't have many posts to go on.
If Shinan, eggbert put his partner at 3 which is absolutely not ideal or neccessary on day 1 for scum to do. The one redeeming factor for ozzy for me right now is he's not going after easy targets. It would be very risky for scum to go after psy when everyone else was looking at other targets. Tales an easier target, but we all have reason to suspect.
I could be persuaded to vote for tale over ozzy potentially, but I don't think I want to vote Shinon before the other two.
The big problem we ran into is tale/shinon have been cruising by while saying nothing, and Ozzy did that the first 2 days as well. I've already given my analysis on the votes before.
My voting priority right now I think would be Ozzy > tale > shinon > everyone else. It's really hard to narrow down when you don't have many posts to go on.
If Shinan, eggbert put his partner at 3 which is absolutely not ideal or neccessary on day 1 for scum to do. The one redeeming factor for ozzy for me right now is he's not going after easy targets. It would be very risky for scum to go after psy when everyone else was looking at other targets. Tales an easier target, but we all have reason to suspect.
I could be persuaded to vote for tale over ozzy potentially, but I don't think I want to vote Shinon before the other two.
AlaskanEmily
561
author=Gourd_Clae
I mean we have lives to spare we could just kill ozzy. It rubs me the wrong way that ozzy started being more active today just to start pointing fingers at people. In spirit, I think my vote is on ozzy.
OK, a little math:
It's D3, and we have 6 alive. If we lynch today, then D4 we will have 4. Assuming only 1 scum left: milo D4, and lylo D5.
So we get at most two tries to lynch scum. I don't think we can afford to miss them. Like I said before, I'm not against an Ozzy lynch if that's where it goes.
author=demonlord5000
If Shinan, eggbert put his partner at 3 which is absolutely not ideal or neccessary on day 1 for scum to do. The one redeeming factor for ozzy for me right now is he's not going after easy targets. It would be very risky for scum to go after psy when everyone else was looking at other targets. Tales an easier target, but we all have reason to suspect.
If Psy was still a suspect after actually hammering scum D1 with almost no time left, why does this discount a Shinan+Eggbert team?
author=Cap_H
Deadline is either in 35 or 59 hours.
What does this mean
demonlord5000
680
It doesn't discount it, I think it's just less likely. I think tale and ozzy just look worse than shinan. that said, shinan is still in my top 3 and id be willing if the votes swung that way.
Day 3 seems to be going slow, I was hoping for some more discussion so you can glean some useful information after my death or so we can hopefully pin down scum. Perhaps I should read through the whole thread again and see if I can actually connect some dots. Having said that, I'm willing to switch my vote from Tale over to Shinan, but perhaps that'll change after I've done the aforementioned re-read of the thread.
@Emily Cap said he might not be here on Friday, hence why the day may end earlier or wayyy later.
@Emily Cap said he might not be here on Friday, hence why the day may end earlier or wayyy later.
I was wondering if there's 1 confirmed town alive, how does it change current game flow towards Day 4? (maybe it's too late to speculate)
demonlord5000
680
Depends who is confirmed. If were on the completely wrong and could confirm it somehow then it would at least set us on the right path. If it's one of us who aren't suspected anyways, then that doesn't help us at all since it wouldn't narrow who we are likely lynching.
Assuming there were 2 scum, we should probably play to where we outnumber them 2 to 1. This means we can skip a lynch at one point if we think it will help narrow it down which can absolutely work if there is a way we can get information that narrows down scum while at the same time reducing the amount of people that we suspect.
At least I wouldn't think there would be 3 in a 9 person game. I would still vote today today, and only consider no lynch on day 4 though.
Assuming there were 2 scum, we should probably play to where we outnumber them 2 to 1. This means we can skip a lynch at one point if we think it will help narrow it down which can absolutely work if there is a way we can get information that narrows down scum while at the same time reducing the amount of people that we suspect.
At least I wouldn't think there would be 3 in a 9 person game. I would still vote today today, and only consider no lynch on day 4 though.
author=tale
I was wondering if there's 1 confirmed town alive, how does it change current game flow towards Day 4? (maybe it's too late to speculate)
I'm not experienced enough in mafia, but who does it serve more now to know if there's a confirmed town at this point? To me it seems like it serves scum more to know that, can anyone correct me on that?
AlaskanEmily
561
It's late at night for me and I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that revealing information is almost always in favor of town. Scum already knows is who, and that's what town is trying to figure out.
There are definitely situations where that's not what you want to do, but I believe those are exceptional cases. Also, I would say that ideally you don't hint at this kind of thing unless you're already decided.
If someone really is confirmed as town, I think it's beneficial to reveal here because it can only improve accuracy of lynches.
From what I said before:
If we lynch today and we'll be at milo (not lynch-or-lose) so I think that means we can afford to skip 1 lynch overall.
There are definitely situations where that's not what you want to do, but I believe those are exceptional cases. Also, I would say that ideally you don't hint at this kind of thing unless you're already decided.
If someone really is confirmed as town, I think it's beneficial to reveal here because it can only improve accuracy of lynches.
author=demonlord5000
Assuming there were 2 scum, we should probably play to where we outnumber them 2 to 1. This means we can skip a lynch at one point if we think it will help narrow it down which can absolutely work if there is a way we can get information that narrows down scum while at the same time reducing the amount of people that we suspect.
At least I wouldn't think there would be 3 in a 9 person game. I would still vote today today, and only consider no lynch on day 4 though.
From what I said before:
OK, a little math:
It's D3, and we have 6 alive. If we lynch today, then D4 we will have 4. Assuming only 1 scum left: milo D4, and lylo D5.
If we lynch today and we'll be at milo (not lynch-or-lose) so I think that means we can afford to skip 1 lynch overall.
It's kind of a mixed bag I think. Confirmed town is a target for scum but it does make us less likely to mess up during the day. Skipping a lynch I think is worse with information like that, though. Then scum can just kill the confirmed and town gets no new info. It depends on how close you are to the end though.
I feel pretty confident about the innocence of say Emily and Demon but nobody is CONFIRMED.
I feel pretty confident about the innocence of say Emily and Demon but nobody is CONFIRMED.
