[MAFIA] RMN: WHEN THEY CRY (TEA PARTY)

LockeZ
Well that was a very unfortunate day 2.

I have no idea why you think Ozzy looks any better now than before. I also have no idea what this means:

author=pianotm
Cave_Dog focused on Ozzy and Yellow with his final votes, so those two will be the ones we likely recall most, which makes me think they're in the clear. Let's see who else he was on.

Seriously? Don't play dumb. You've played scum as many times as I have. You're honestly telling me your move in this situation would be to NK the guy that shining a spotlight on you? Come on man, if Ozzy is scum and he nuked Cave to get him off his back, that's amateur hour! Then again, Marrend did out himself in that one game with the Gourdy-face thing, so who knows, maybe Ozzy did go for the most idiotically obvious move imaginable.

And, sorry demonlord, you are right about that. You do look very good today.

I suspect Cave was targetted because both of the "confirmed townies" had almost-unusable powers, and because he was being legitimately super helpful and taking a leadership role. But if not, then whatever reason he was killed for, it was a good enough reason to kill him for. Which means that it'd still be a good enough reason to kill him for if Ozzy were scum. No amateur revenge plot necessary.

author=pianotm
Cave_Dog focused on Ozzy and Yellow with his final votes, so those two will be the ones we likely recall most, which makes me think they're in the clear. Let's see who else he was on.

author=pianotm
A quick note. ESBY's death has confirmed Jero's claim. I'm confident that he's not scum.

Yes, it comfirmed his role of a gunman. Also it confirms protector being a role and therefore demonlord being either one or in touch with a role cop.
Tbh, 5 out of 7 players are on my list of towns.
Piano for his content and activity.
Jero has a very good record imo. He's playing almost optimally not suspecting people without a reason. He's trying to solve the game. Esby's death makes him look better.
Demonlord, the claim is almost confirmed. I'm leaning town for that. On the other hand he was mostly following other people and joining their cases.
In case of Muffle Cave's death is convienient. I'm not a big fan of her posts but I still find some parts pure and eager to find wolves in a naive way.
I don't have a reason to scumread LockeZ rn. Also, I agree with him on Ozzy.
YM has things to explain. I think we will need to know more about his claim. As it stands now he's the least towny player after Ozzy.
Ozzy with his claim and the hammer rule is almost confirmed. That claim is always fake.

#lynch OzzyTheOne

#cancel
so he can't hammer himself.

Pretty much agreed. There is no rush but leave a little time for discussion. I agree with cap_hs list, but I do want to say we should reconsider piano if ozzy flips scum tonight. That post where piano says he also has a detrimental role bothers me when nobody except ozzy has claimed to have one.

I'm not against voting for ym during the next day phase though if that's the route you all want to take.

We still have our two gunners so that's a thing too. Just in case the lynch happens before I check this tomorrow (not likely but you never know), I'd recommend the two take out ym. The reason I say this is right now ym is our only real lead outside of ozzy, and I'd rather not waste the lynch on ym tomorrow if ozzy flips scum, while ym flips town in that scenario.

On the other hand there is the risk of hitting two townies on that route too, but if they are both town I think this might be lost no matter what we do.

Also, I attacked Esby, obviously. But that much should be obvious.

Cave's death is very unfortunate and I can't help but think that scum probably killed him because he was the only strong town leaning member that was slightly protecting me. Scum probably realized that they would not be able to get me on a majority vote on a townie and kill myself like that. Either way, I realize that I was doomed this day no matter what. Consider the possibility that scum had a roleblocker, they could've blocked my sacrificial lamb role the night after my vote got a townie, making sure that I survived and giving scum an easy town lynch on day 3. Heck, day 3 barely started and I almost got lynched already. Sadly, the only real logical conclusion for the rest of town is to lynch me, if we consider the possibility that scum can block roles. I am doomed no matter what defense I build unless we hit scum today.

What evidence do we have that a roleblocker even exists? That statement feels to me like you have prior knowledge of some kind.

Alright, here's what I think we should do:

I'm going to assume a 3-man scumteam here. I think it's more likely that we have 2 scum if only because I really can't think of a 3-man scumteam that makes sense to me at this point, but it doesn't hurt to be careful.

Assuming 3 scum, we're at 5-3. If Ozzy's legit and we mislynch someone else, we've immediately lost.
If Ozzy's legit and we mislych him, that puts us at 4-3, meaning we've lost if the third gunman is scum or even if they're town and we can't decide on a target.

Now assumining 2 scum, we're at 6-2. If Ozzy's legit and we mislynch someone else, we're at 4-2. 3-2 tomorrow, so I definitely shouldn't use my power as it may make us lose the game.
If Ozzy's legit and we mislynch him, that puts us at 5-2, 4-2 tomorrow, which makes it safe for me to use my power tonight.

If Ozzy is scum, then we're either at 5-2 or 6-1, making it safe for me to use my power.

So worst case scenario is we're at 5-3 and Ozzy's legit. If we lynch anyone but Ozzy we've immediately lost in that case. This alone is enough for me to think we definitely shouldn't lynch anyone but Ozzy.

But before we do that, we should consider who we should kill tonight if Ozzy does flip town. Because in the case of 5-3, we've only not lost if the other gunman is town, and we can nail scum.

We can also have Ozzy not be on the bandwagon for someone else if we suspect he's legit, but I don't put enough faith in his claim for that, and that would give us the same numbers as just lynching Ozzy. Except Ozzy potentially lives to lylo, which he really shouldn't.

So I still think lynching Ozzy is the correct way to go.