[MAFIA] PRISONER'S DILEMMA. GAME OVER

Posts

oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Oh, dang. I don't know how coherent that rambling I just wrote up is. It probably doesn't make sense.

Ivory, when you come online, could you possibly back up Ozzy's statement. I'm pretty sure he's telling the truth, but, you know, just to be safe.

Ah, I guess since I don't really have anyone I feel could be scum, I might as well just vote with the majority.

The biggest thing with PA is I have no real strong arguments against him other than the fact he acted strangely in the other day phases, and the fact hes one of the three most suspicious. The rest of his arguments have been pretty solid.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
author=OzzyTheOne
Ignore that entire thing I said Odd, it was just me being crazy and coming up with insane rambling based on paranoia because we can't seem to find Scum. I just know that if we don't hit scum today I will lose it.


Ah, sorry about that.


Please don't lose it. That would probably be pretty detrimental to town.
OzzyTheOne
Future Ruler of Gam Mak
4698
Like, from a sensible point of view, our main suspects are PA and Fomar. PA because of his weird plays throughout the entire game, not to mention that he also pushed for the Piano vote, but it was either him or Piano, so we can't blame him for that.

Fomar because he had few interactions with the actual scum and because of how damned protective Libberty was of him.

Demonlord is only really an option because the entire game he has flown under the radar similat to Gourd in the last mafia, but going after Demon is more just a desperation read because we can't seem to find scum.

In my opinion, the best vote today is either Fomar or PA and I'm gonna go with Fomar for today because he became suspect before PA did. Will wait on Ivory, PA and Fomar input before casting my vote, even though we are enough here to hammer Fomar if we would want to.
I completely agree with waiting as well. They might be able to see something we missed, and it never hurts to have more thoughts on the situation before were locked in.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Yeah, waiting is always a great plan. We should wait for everyone to make at least one or two comments at the very least before any decisions are made.
Now that it's come to this, I kind of wish kitten had waited one more day on claiming and used another power. We have lost many games to what we thought were town roles, so there's always going to be that small bit of doubt within me. I just can't logically go after them though from what facts we know right now.

I say that because tale was in virtually no danger, and I think scum probably would of been after ivory or ozzy if that hadn't come out.
OzzyTheOne
Future Ruler of Gam Mak
4698
Ivory and I talked about how scum was at an impass, they either didn't kill Kittenfood and risked her using a power or they killed her, verifying Tale as town.
Yeah, scum had no choice since the claim came out. If kitten had waited one more day on the claim she could have potentially cleared two people instead of one though. I think without that coming out the odds of either you or ivory would of been much higher over kitten since at the time it looked like she had used up her role. There's also the fact you and ivory are veterans, so I think the odds of either of you being targeted were much higher.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Oh, right. Demonlord, looking back a few pages, it looks like you put a lynch vote on Fomar. For now, could you just cancel it? It's kinda pointless, I guess, but I think it'd be easier to deal with voting with everyone having a blank slate. Since we could forget about Fomar being voted against and we could accidentally hammer him before he has the chance to speak or anything (assuming that Fomar is the one to get lynched today?).
I doubt anyone would accidentally hammer but yeah I can. Fomar has a knack for hammering since he very nearly hammered psy before I cancelled, and later on hammered piano before he could defend himself.

#cancel
ozzy, thank you for addressing my worries!

and demon, thank you answering my questions!

Even though I'm a confirmed town, I don't like being inconsistent.

Shinan was in PA's list- at first in D3 I thought he was being framed but really it was emily. I'll call it night

https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24686/?post=887831#post887831
About Fomar's recent post-

author=Fomar0153
Sorry one last thought, we don't need to say how we'll vote tomorrow, you can just tell us who to vote for to trigger the double elimination.


What does he mean by that?
I didn't even think about that post. If PA is scum, I could see that being the reasoning on why shinan was killed.

As for that post, I think it was a badly formulated plan based on kittens tactician ability. Honestly, I still don't get that ability even after she confirmed that it works based off votes rather than the nightkill.
OzzyTheOne
Future Ruler of Gam Mak
4698
I'm a veteran in a very loose way tho. I'm not exactly a very good player xD Basically all the reads we Masons came up with Ivory's, she's the real brain between us two and as Piano said way back, the towniest town in townington.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Yeah, Ivory is incredibly smart and helpful. And don't sell yourself short, Ozzy! At least you're more useful than me.
OzzyTheOne
Future Ruler of Gam Mak
4698
You've been more useful to town in previous games that I've been Odd, you're the one selling yourself short, it's just this game where we can't get a lock on the last scum. We were on such a roll too, with lynching 2/3 scum before day 2 even started.
I don't consider myself that great a player either. Day 1 I usually just don't know what to talk about so I always end up poorly debating mechanics. I'd like to think my day 2 and onward is better than my day 1, but I'd say even that's not great.
Aww, sorry Emily.

That was a quick night, going to go through the suspects past posts to see who is active between 12am and 2:30am my time.
Night 1: 08:01 PM - 05:24 PM
Night 2: 08:39 PM - 11:37 PM
Night 3: 12:09 AM - 02:24 AM
But bear in mind more people had actions night 1 and night 2.

I need to convert my findings into something I can upload which will take me a little while but here is my main finding; PlatinumAshes is confirmed town, more so for me than Odd is.

My current feelings:
Demonlord 80% chance of being scum
Odd 19% chance of being scum
PlatinumAshes 1% chance of being scum

I guess I owe PA an apolagy I have been pursuing him since pretty much the beginning.

The other thing that stuck out like a sore thumb going through pages and pages of posts was that demonlord changed him playstyle hugely after I narrowed down the scum candidates to a point where it was mathematically impossible for scum to win. Before that he was much more passive and laying low, not he is actively trying to start lynches and his post count jumped massively.

And then there is this:
author=demonlord5000
I doubt anyone would accidentally hammer but yeah I can. Fomar has a knack for hammering since he very nearly hammered psy before I cancelled, and later on hammered piano before he could defend himself.
#cancel

He cancelled his vote on me because I might hammer myself... If he thinks I'm scum why would I do that?
And yes you did cancel your lynch on the scum role cop when it looked like he was doomed.
I regret hammering Piano, if you go look at the post times, I think the post difference was 3 minutes (which given how it doesn't tell us second it could have been as low as 121 seconds), which allows for the time I started my post then checked the count (albeit missing PA's vote). Since then I've been refreshing before posting any lynches.

So I'm going back to making graphs to show you why I think PA is confirmed town but in the mean time I am confident enough having seen the data to do this:

#lynch demonlord5000