[MAFIA] SPY VS. MAFIA II DAY 3

Also I didn't cancel my vote. I hereby uncancel it despite it having not been cancelled in the first place.

#lynch psy_wombats

author=LockeZ
I can only say what I would do, which is wait until probably about two votes away from being hammered. But because the scum would have been blind before he revealed himself, anyone who voted before he claimed can easily be scum. And because there was already an unstoppable bandwagon on him, and scum like to make themselves look good by bussing each other in that situation, anyone who voted after he claimed can also easily be scum. The only people who are actually suspicious to me based on the voting pattern are oddRABBIT, Fomar, and TremendousMilk who didn't vote for Demonlord at all, and to a much larger extent, Cap_H who cancelled his vote.

Cap_H's vote cancellation was weird too.

yeah I don't think we're going to get anywhere from analyzing vote patterns. it's not just because of the anonymity. it's because of the plurality rule, too. look at votes that are bad instead.

Going to bed shortly but I was looking back through day 1 again and I had a thought; presumably scumchat will have confirmed they are not Ozzy to each-other at some point.

With that in mind this post from Cap_H stood out to me:
https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24744/?post=889467#post889467

author=Cap_H

author=Jeroen_Sol
Cap, what changed inbetween you saying there was not much to catch Ozzy for and you saying his posts stink?

Easy, I read his posts properly, trying to find information to chew on. The lack of content made me change my mind.
I still think he's quite present and that made me feel good.
Also, his entrance doesn't fit the style and feels way more thought-out

It happened around the time momentum was building on Ozzy.

He read demonlord as town just before that (though I doubt that demonlord would have revealed himself this early but it's possible).
https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24744/?post=889454#post889454

author=Cap_H
If I tried to meta read demon, he's probably close to his normal self. It doesn't sound like he's trying to stay low or mislead town. One thing I would like to point out is timing of his vote. Blatant bandwagonning. He also lacks original reads with an exception of his Fomar I'd quiet read (that one smells of tmi or buddying, tbh. As we can see now Fomar's reason is different). I probably would pursue him for this in every other game, but I feel like it's not enough when it comes to Demon. One important lesson I took from previous games is that he's easily influenced and a mislynch bait.

Later on he has demonlord down as scummy and votes for him, this is after Ozzy revealed his agent status:
https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24744/?post=889586#post889586

author=Cap_H
VVV - PSY
VV - Cave
V - LockeZ, Alaskan, Jero, Odd, Ozzy (for the claim)
W - Demonlord, Fomar, Milk, PA
WW
WWW

I'm obviously wrong somewhere. Anyway, Milk didn't do anything worth mentioning even in their third post. Not a hint of a read.
Fomar and Demon put scummy votes on Ozzy. Fomar was way louder when it came to his read and made several comments on it. Demon kind of sidelined.. I'm by no means sure I'm making a right decision, but I'm going with Demon over Fomar for now because of his possibly tmi read earlier.
Why I hesitate is Jero's case. Jero's a competent player and his pursue of Demon seems to be based on something insignificant, which is actually what he usually does, so I shouldn't worry about that.
PA lynch is ok too imo. Them joking around lacks any meat and it's really difficult to townread him for that. Also he's voting one of my other suspects and that makes me feel slightly better.

#cancel
#lynch Demonlord5000

He also has me down as scummy despite the 90% chance of me being town but that's not super relevant.

He then shortly changes his vote:
https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24744/?post=889597#post889597

author=Cap_H
Good,

Actually while taking a shower a fallacy in my logic occurred to me. Demon's only possibly scum if Ozzy's town. Ozzy claimed, but he's far from confirmed.
Fomar flipping town makes PA an obvious choice for now, then.

#cancel
#lynch PlatinumAshes

It was probably before demonlord revealed himself in scumchat though, unless demon panicked after ozzy revealing himself and then Cap_H immediately redrawing attention to him.

What does everyone else think?
At the very least I would like an explanation from Cap_H why he swapped from demonlord to PA.

author=psy_wombats

author=OzzyTheOne
Why do you want me dead again?

Half because I'd find it funny, but also because cave stated what is also my town/scum tell on you (analytical vs maniacal), and now you'll probably be too sensitive to it for me to get an actual proper read.

So this bothers me because even if Ozzy probably would have been too sensitive to it after that to get a proper read, this post by Psy pointing it out makes him definitely too sensitive. Why say that out loud? It could just be sloppy. Or it could be Psy caring more about making himself look analytical than about actually being analytical.

author=psy_wombats
Hey Ozzy if you go down and you're town, who should we murder in revenge?

This question makes no sense in the context of this game. Ozzy clearly knew nothing about his enemies. There's no useful information to get out of it, either about Ozzy or about anyone else. The only point of asking it is for Psy to look like he's asking questions, and to try to get people to talk about a red herring.

author=psy_wombats
Okay nevermind I read the thread anyway - Ozzy what does your item/power/etc do? and what's it called? And what are the agent codenames?

Don't have much to add other than that AE and PA look bad. Whoever was asking why AE was on my original hitlist was I usually can follow her reasoning but couldn't for the first part of the day. Still on it for trying to start a train away from Ozzy.

Ozzy had already said it was a bodyguard item. This was actually the second post in which Psy asked for more details about it. It feels like trying to steer the discussion away from the useful part of the role claim, toward something that doesn't matter. Or maybe toward info that could help scum know how to circumvent the bodyguard power.

Also, I already stated my theory that the reason Psy asked for the other code names might have been because he suspected the code names were the same in both chats. If one of the agent code names matched one of the scum code names, then he could identify the double agent. This is info that directly and massively benefits scum.

At this point AlaskanEmily is on his hit list for "trying to start a train away from Ozzy" but that's what any sensible person would do after Ozzy roleclaimed as an agent. C'mon.

author=psy_wombats
@demon: it helps us determine if his claim is legit. How are calling him a "basically confirmed agent," all he is is a claimed agent. Reasons I doubt it:
- claimed to be a bodyguard, was reminded the only role is "agent," decided he was actually a paper bag owner
- told people to not counterclaim for some reason whereas a legit agent would have agentchat to clear this play beforehand... But makes no mention of the input of the other agents
- i believe items are oneshot

How the flip were the code names supposed to help you determine if Ozzy's claim was legit, you snurdburglar? Nobody could confirm if the code names were real or not unless they were agents. Ozzy didn't have to give out any info publicly, he just had to say "I'm Ozzy" in the agent chat.

Somehow Psy then remembers that the agent chat exists with respect to telling the other agents not to counterclaim, despite having forgotten it four sentences earlier with respect to telling the other agents his identity. This strikes me less as thought-out logic, and more as opportunistic trigger-happy finger-pointing at any perceived flaw. The fact that Psy's two points contradict each other isn't important to him; what matters is making as many points as possible. It's the kind of thing you'd do if you're more interested in pointing out any flaw than in figuring out what those flaws might mean. Psy is usually better than this.

author=psy_wombats
For the record, the tuba randomly reveals the ID of a player with 90% accuracy, then gets passed to someone randomly.

I still think this is unlikely as fuck, for all the reasons I ranted about at length before.

author=psy_wombats

author=oddRABBIT
For one, if Jeroen is telling the truth in this instance, he basically just immediately claimed that he is in fact independent and can pretty much win as long as he doesn't die. Two, we don't know if PA is lying or not about the color scheming, and heck, we don't even know if any of the power roles in this game are based on color like (I think?) they were in the last one. They could be absolutely and completely different, like being named after famous terrorists/spies in real life, or like characters from spy movies or something.

Between this and the ""what are the chances I'm mafia twice in a row??"" I think this is Odd being flippant scum again. if he's agent, then, welp

One of two things happened here, either psy legitimately forgot that agents would also know how the code names worked, or he decided to deliberately out someone who had a 50/50 chance of being either scum or an agent and accuse them of being scum. Nobody is dumb enough to do the first thing, and nobody is dumb enough to do the second thing unless their win condition is oddRABBIT's death. This might be the thing that bothers me the most.

author=psy_wombats
I used "gray agent" in direct response to demon, who used it in the post before mine

author=psy_wombats
I assume demon used the term because he was explicitly warned about in his role pm as scum.

I'm not claiming my logic for bringing this whole thing up in the first place wasn't dumb, because it was. But I feel like it was honestly too dumb for other people to latch onto. I didn't really even explain it properly and so Psy apparently came up with his own unrelated reason for thinking it was suspicious, which was that he thought it was an official name for the role that Demonlord was told by Pianotm. But I think there's also a big chance that he just saw me say something dumb, and latched onto it so he could steer the conversation in an irrelevant direction without being the one who was blamed for it. Standard scum misdirection tactic.

-----

All of this minor stuff combines to form a scenario where, to me, Psy feels like he is trying to steer people down as many wrong discussion paths as possible. And also hunting for actual info that helps scum, in three different situations (bodyguard mechanics / code names / odd's role).

first quote is admittingly weird.

second quote is a nulltell. Yeah it's something you could fake but, asking people what their reads are (which is basically what that question is) is an important part of discerning their alignment.

- mentioned it earlier, but PA apparently jokeclaimed he had a agent name list. I expected Ozzy was scum and would just come up with some colors, possibly conflicting a list from him if he wasn't joking. I don't see how this contradicts the bizarreness of Ozzy asking for nobody to "counterclaim" him. Plus Ozzy is bad at making fakeclaims so more room for him to do something dumb/self-contradictory as he'd already decided to fullclaim

this explanation clears with me


i think there's probably no way in hell psy could be that ballsy to keep pressing ozzy like that, and attempt to keep the votes on him, AND use the random alignment-confirming trombone (which, given how it was activated, I do believe just randomly targeted a person and revealed their alignment. Given that it could potentially real a scumbuddy, I would uh, never use that thing as scum.)
Last game iirc he was too busy casing his teammate to make fraudulent cases on town, and claimed his actual scum role because he was afeared of being counterclaimed. not exactly the bravest scum profile.

One of two things happened here, either psy legitimately forgot that agents would also know how the code names worked, or he decided to deliberately out someone who had a 50/50 chance of being either scum or an agent and accuse them of being scum. Nobody is dumb enough to do the first thing, and nobody is dumb enough to do the second thing unless their win condition is oddRABBIT's death. This might be the thing that bothers me the most.

I buy his explanation again, he could just kill him, but also, I don't know if you witnessed the last game, but Odd repeatedly put "ninja'd" in his posts as many times as possible (He had 2-shots of ninja powers.) It would basically fit his scum meta to do what psy described. makes sense to shine a light on it.

I'm not sure what to make of your last point.

If psy was scum with demonlord and scum were told about a 'gray agent,' would psy bring it up so brazenly?
If they weren't told about that, and had no reason (considering there have been no color-coded names) would he bring that up as a potential line of logic in order to get someone mistakenly executed, even though he would really know in this case that it would get shut down eventually, just as it did? I think the answer is probably no in both cases.

this seems like a dead end.

I will try to read and digest LockeZ's and Cave's posts about Psy tonight if I can.

author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
case summary: post history is mostly fluff, reads given are for shaky or, in the case of demonlord/ozzy, just like, wrong reasons, and she's developed tunnelvision on me, the only person who's really expressed much interest in voting her, for some, if you read above, reasons that either have no bearing on alignment or are flat-out wrong. reads to me like flailing scum who is more concerned with self-preservation than exterminating bad guys.

Bullshit? I poked at you because you weren't making a lot of sense, you refused to answer my questions, and made many statements and accusations with brazenly little explanation. I gave lots of examples. You keep saying things like "You didn't answer my points", I ask which points since I thought I did, and then you say "it's not going anywhere, nevermind". That feels like you're not really trying to find the truth, just to make someone look bad.

You also said "the infamous lylo D1", but no one said that. Jeroen, Psy, and I all noted that this is, in fact, probably a lylo+mylo situation right now. Either we find the last true scum, or tonight Odd gets NK'ed, and the gray agent wins with the scum.

The only argument I see against that is that there is no gray agent, but you clearly aren't saying that you think that's the case.

If it's tunnel vision to pursue whoever I think is acting the most deceptive and suspicious, then sure I guess. You weren't the only person who had said I might be scum on me D1 in any case. But it very much feels like you are intentionally choosing not to understand what I am saying, or are choosing to interpret misunderstanding as deception.

actually don't attempt a second case on me because i won't read it. but do read jeroen.

I don't think there's a need to address milk. that's a modkill waiting to happen.

Can you say specifically what you like about Jeroen's postings today? It isn't bad, but I'm not seeing anything that doesn't seem null-alignment to me.

Can you respond to whatever Lockez/psy's weird questions @ you are too. I can't care enough to figure out what they're talking about.

Have read the last few pages and have things to say but ran out of time for this morning. Long rehearsal day ahead. Be back in like 12 hours.

author=demonlord5000
In the last game cave actually played, he was scum, and dueled his scum buddy day 1. It resulted in a massive win for town.

This is demon's only mention of Cave. I guess it's decent, but I would like to see more.

And this is an interesting interaction:

author=AlaskanEmily
Also wouldn't a gray agent be possible (or even more likely) instead of an outright traitor, too?

author=demonlord5000
Emily: Agents are just non-vanilla town that lose us the game if they all die. There's nothing stating they can't also have a role on top of being an agent.

author=AlaskanEmily
Ah, OK. I had thought the agents were basically just masons, and we needed at least one to stay alive. I didn't realize there could be more to them than that, I thought only items granted abilities.

I'm still processing it. On Demon's side it looks like a w/w interaction, but Emily responded in a very natural way. Still, here interactions with Demon are the most w/w interactions Demon had. But...
He lacked interactions with Cave, he avoided defending against Jero's push and Milk doesn't have a limit as I managed to find out in pre-game.