[MAFIA] GAME OVER - FREQUENCY MAFIA

why do you think I go with my gut feelings on him when it comes to mafia? because trusting his posts at a normal, intellectual and sane level is dumb

I'm 78% sure that Gourd is town, so I'm thinking Fomar and Cap are probably scum.

Why not psy?

author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
with town winning, and not losing

Nah, that's crap. There's at least one wolf in you, psy, liberty and piano. From the four of you, Piano probably looks the best at this point.
You could be cleared if Fomar flips scum, otherwise your votes are as arbitrary as the last time. Together with this, it almost feels like you're doing your thing as scum again.
That brings me to Liberty, who had kind of a bad eod. Again, if Fomar's town, it makes her look bad.

author=Odd
AlaskanEmily (4): Liberty, pianotm, Hexatona, Gourd_Clae, CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, Liberty, Fomar0153

Yeah, there's a wolf on this wagon.
Psy's way more on the fence than usual. I don't think he had a whole lot of presence and I don't remember him having strong opinions or solving. So nah.

Esby's my gut read town, but I might be wrong on him, because I would at least expect him to vote after naming his three wolves and three towns.
There's no reason to think Demonlord's scum.
Fomar made some bad reads. He posted more of them than in the last game and they're often based on stuff, which isn't really ai. His claim's alright, but what actually makes him look better is his willingness to be in a tie. I don't see that to be a wolf mindset.

And what's so good about Hexa's claim and I don't think broadcasting confirms Frogge, but it makes him look better. I'm not going in that direction as there's still a big chance of the claim being valid, but I missed it. Also, both of them staying alive shows that the claim was far from clearing and that wolves can work with them alive.

author=Gourd_Clae
Looking back at the end of the day, I revoke my thought that Liberty is scum. I think she is town.

Her trust that people were the what they said they were, and the subsequent moving to avoid a mislynch came across as genuine to me. I think I might have been too hard on her activity yesterday as well. She is an emotional player, but the end of the day makes me believe she is doing her best.

Gourd, unfortunately this isn't the truth. Liberty went on voting Fomar after he claimed. I also think she's doing her best, but I don't think she's necessary town for that. This comment hurts Gourd in my eyes.
He's still my top tier town, but I'd consider him for lynching if Liberty flipped scum. I probably wouldn't vote him after that consideration.

So, yeah
Demon - top town
Gourd - vice town
Piano, Esby - gut towns
Hexa, Frogge, Fomar - claims to further look at
Liberty, Cave, Psy - at least one wolf here. I suspect Liberty and Psy more than cave. Cave's been coming up with cases, but he was little arbitrary voting-wise.

13ers usually have three wolves, so I would expect the distribution to be:
1-2 wolves in Liberty, Cave, Psy, Piano
0-2 wolves in Hexa, Frogge, Fomar
0-1 wolves in Demon, Gourd, Esby

Now a vote analysis for the first line:
Psy camped on Hexa. He wasn't around for the claim. He defended Fomar, but it basically was a critiuque of Cave. I need to look in his posts for more detail, but it doesn't look so good there. Also, he was very defensive when it came to his gourd vote.
Libby felt like she's willing to vote anyone eod. I need to properly read through her comments. She's not with Fomar.
Cave's eod wasn't that different from Liberty. Both reads rely on Fomar.
Piano's little more in shadows. He definitely fell off and then picked up again. I need to check his posts too, but I don't feel it. His vote on Fomar makes them unlikely allies and he's also unlikely with Cave. I could see him wolfing with Liberty, tho.

So, wagons:
Fomar - If he's town there's probably one wolf on him. Either Cave or Piano. If he's scum they're all clear. Fomar being a counter-wagon and voted a lot makes him a good information lynch today.

Hexatona - It's only Psy. If Psy's town, there's something wrong with claims. At the moment I'm leaning Psy scum.

Emily - there's always at least one wolf here. Basically all staying votes look back. Liberty was the one bringing AE up, so that makes her look little better.

Esby and Frogge have a chance of being wolves off-wagon, so I would like to see some real votes from them today.

#lynch Psy

author=Hexatona
Why not psy?

I wanted to talk to someone who I felt was likely town and wasn't super talkative but wasn't super quiet. Someone who slid under the radar. I also wanted someone to talk to who I thought I could trust, too. I never even considered psy because I forgot he was playing.

My first choice was cave because I was sure he was town based on my gut but then sanity reasserted itself because talking to the crazy wildcard wasn't really sure to be beneficial and I wasn't sure if he would instantly out me as indie and thus not-town, or if he'd share his information with me or not. He's unpredictable.

author=Frogge
Actually I probably should reveal this now because if Fomar does end up getting hammered and I am killed overnight, which is probably bound to happen as soon as I reveal this anyway, it's gonna be a pretty big loss.

Odd told me I can broadcast to town. When I asked if that meant mason didn't get my broadcasts, he didn't confirm. I believe it's actually EXCLUSIVELY sent to town, though, hence why I think Liberty didn't get it - because she has a special role like she claims. That leaves Cap, Fomar and Gourd as the only three people who have not confirmed getting a PM from me, and I personally think Fomar and Gourd are the mason team.

I got your broadcast. Can you remind me what confirmed hexa town? Also, if this theory's real, it breaks the game.
I think Piano claiming the message right away is slightly towny of him, because he tends to do that.

author=Liberty
You could probably, like, ask three different questions of each. It's useful that no non-towns can get it.

I will freely admit that I am independent but that I chose to personally ally with town (as the person I interviewed can tell you when they feel like coming forward). Like I said, they have a very town-friendly power so they probably want to stay hidden and Journalists can't reveal their sources. ^.^;

Now, this makes sense considering the game was designed by odd. It doesn't make sense balance-wise to have a net in a 13er, but that's my problem.
What's your win condition?

author=Cap_H

author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
with town winning, and not losing

Nah, that's crap. There's at least one wolf in you, psy, liberty and piano. From the four of you, Piano probably looks the best at this point.
You could be cleared if Fomar flips scum, otherwise your votes are as arbitrary as the last time. Together with this, it almost feels like you're doing your thing as scum again.
That brings me to Liberty, who had kind of a bad eod. Again, if Fomar's town, it makes her look bad.

author=Odd
AlaskanEmily (4): Liberty, pianotm, Hexatona, Gourd_Clae, CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, Liberty, Fomar0153

Yeah, there's a wolf on this wagon.
Psy's way more on the fence than usual. I don't think he had a whole lot of presence and I don't remember him having strong opinions or solving. So nah.

Esby's my gut read town, but I might be wrong on him, because I would at least expect him to vote after naming his three wolves and three towns.
There's no reason to think Demonlord's scum.
Fomar made some bad reads. He posted more of them than in the last game and they're often based on stuff, which isn't really ai. His claim's alright, but what actually makes him look better is his willingness to be in a tie. I don't see that to be a wolf mindset.

And what's so good about Hexa's claim and I don't think broadcasting confirms Frogge, but it makes him look better. I'm not going in that direction as there's still a big chance of the claim being valid, but I missed it. Also, both of them staying alive shows that the claim was far from clearing and that wolves can work with them alive.

author=Gourd_Clae
Looking back at the end of the day, I revoke my thought that Liberty is scum. I think she is town.

Her trust that people were the what they said they were, and the subsequent moving to avoid a mislynch came across as genuine to me. I think I might have been too hard on her activity yesterday as well. She is an emotional player, but the end of the day makes me believe she is doing her best.

Gourd, unfortunately this isn't the truth. Liberty went on voting Fomar after he claimed. I also think she's doing her best, but I don't think she's necessary town for that. This comment hurts Gourd in my eyes.
He's still my top tier town, but I'd consider him for lynching if Liberty flipped scum. I probably wouldn't vote him after that consideration.

So, yeah
Demon - top town
Gourd - vice town
Piano, Esby - gut towns
Hexa, Frogge, Fomar - claims to further look at
Liberty, Cave, Psy - at least one wolf here. I suspect Liberty and Psy more than cave. Cave's been coming up with cases, but he was little arbitrary voting-wise.

13ers usually have three wolves, so I would expect the distribution to be:
1-2 wolves in Liberty, Cave, Psy, Piano
0-2 wolves in Hexa, Frogge, Fomar
0-1 wolves in Demon, Gourd, Esby

Now a vote analysis for the first line:
Psy camped on Hexa. He wasn't around for the claim. He defended Fomar, but it basically was a critiuque of Cave. I need to look in his posts for more detail, but it doesn't look so good there. Also, he was very defensive when it came to his gourd vote.
Libby felt like she's willing to vote anyone eod. I need to properly read through her comments. She's not with Fomar.
Cave's eod wasn't that different from Liberty. Both reads rely on Fomar.
Piano's little more in shadows. He definitely fell off and then picked up again. I need to check his posts too, but I don't feel it. His vote on Fomar makes them unlikely allies and he's also unlikely with Cave. I could see him wolfing with Liberty, tho.

So, wagons:
Fomar - If he's town there's probably one wolf on him. Either Cave or Piano. If he's scum they're all clear. Fomar being a counter-wagon and voted a lot makes him a good information lynch today.

Hexatona - It's only Psy. If Psy's town, there's something wrong with claims. At the moment I'm leaning Psy scum.

Emily - there's always at least one wolf here. Basically all staying votes look back. Liberty was the one bringing AE up, so that makes her look little better.

Esby and Frogge have a chance of being wolves off-wagon, so I would like to see some real votes from them today.

#lynch Psy

nah

author=Gourd_Clae
Also I'm going to be real I changed my mind on Liberty because she interrogated me last night and told me her alignment XD

What I said about Liberty's actions at the end of day 1 still stands though. I think her role claiming was a town aligned behavior even if she is independent!

It makes more sense with you being in a chat. I feel like Liberty wants to solve the game, but there's also an urge to stay alive in her posts.

author=Liberty
But yes, I had Gourdy in chat last night. He left a few times at odd intervals whilst we were chatting but nothing he said makes me think he's not town and his ability is one that is beneficial to town, too.

Hearing back from Fomar and Cap will clear a lot up.

If he also has an ability that explains why he didn't get the PM, which makes it seem likely that it's Fomar and Cap

author=Cap_H
I got your broadcast. Can you remind me what confirmed hexa town? Also, if this theory's real, it breaks the game.
I think Piano claiming the message right away is slightly towny of him, because he tends to do that.

He's my partner in not-crime. Also Piano has been confirmed as town through a role check.