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SUMMER MOVIE WAGER
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Shinan
4314
Shinan
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CloseYesterday I was perusing the site formerly known as Twitter and came upon this article: https://mashable.com/article/summer-movie-preview-2024
And I realize it's summer movie season again and I have no idea about anything about summer movies this year. But on the "official" summer movie website they have the deadline to submit lists on the first of May, meaning the event of the year is here!
Summer Movies Go!
oh and the rules pasted from previous years:
So pick the top 10 movies that you think will make the most money in North America + three dark horses that may or may not crack the top 10 for bonus points.
The deadline on the summer movie wager site is May Day, but depending on interest I'll give RMN a few more days. Make sure to have your official lists in by the first weekend of May. When some big movie probably opens.
The fact is that movie box office is more erratic than ever. The numbers are way down and there usually aren't those massive openings for one movie that there was in the pre-pandemic era. Instead there's often three movies that make a bit of money instead of one dominating constantly.
So I have no idea how to do these numbers this year. But I assume that Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 at least will make very good money. But I'll have to ponder this over the weekend.
And I realize it's summer movie season again and I have no idea about anything about summer movies this year. But on the "official" summer movie website they have the deadline to submit lists on the first of May, meaning the event of the year is here!
Summer Movies Go!
oh and the rules pasted from previous years:
2016 Summer Movie Wager Scoring:The rest of the scoring goes like this:
- Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).
- 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
- 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
- 5 points if it was two spots away
- 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
- 1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10
The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.
So pick the top 10 movies that you think will make the most money in North America + three dark horses that may or may not crack the top 10 for bonus points.
The deadline on the summer movie wager site is May Day, but depending on interest I'll give RMN a few more days. Make sure to have your official lists in by the first weekend of May. When some big movie probably opens.
The fact is that movie box office is more erratic than ever. The numbers are way down and there usually aren't those massive openings for one movie that there was in the pre-pandemic era. Instead there's often three movies that make a bit of money instead of one dominating constantly.
So I have no idea how to do these numbers this year. But I assume that Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 at least will make very good money. But I'll have to ponder this over the weekend.
We wagerin!!!
Not gonna do my ranked list just yet (Shinan please send reminder before the deadline) but I'm gonna think out loud on some of the movies I think might do well.
Deadpool & Wolverine and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: Both deffo gonna be top 5 somewhere. Probably top 3.
Alien: Romulus: I'm thinking it'll be in the top 3, lots of hype in the horror community and Alien is a beloved IP outside of horror circles too. Might have to check how well Prometheus and Covenant did in the box office.
Despicable Me 4, Inside Out 2 & The Garfield Movie: I think all three of them will make the top 10 because family movies, and I expect they'll all rank roughly around the middle, but the question is how will they compare with each other? Pixar seems to have some diminishing interest while Illumination and Sony know how to maximize those numbers.
Kinds of Kindness: The success of Poor Things might be enough to get this in the top 10, but I'm not sure, I think it's gonna have a little too much competition in the summer season.
MaXXXine, I Saw the TV Glow & Longlegs: Massive hype for all 3 in the horror community, but I think MaXXXine might be the only one that stands a chance of making the top 10. It'll definitely be somewhere lower down, though, horror movies are very crippled monetarily compared to other genres.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die: It's the kind of movie I wouldn't expect anyone to care about, but I think it'll surprise me and make the top 10. Maybe it's just cause people around my age aren't gonna be interested in a Bad Boys film in 2024 but if I talked to someone like my boyfriend's parents they might go "oh we went to go see that new Bad Boys film in the cinema" and it's like the only thing they've watched this entire season.
Twisters, The Fall Guy, A Quiet Place: Day One, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Back to Black, IF: These all seem like they could make the top 10 but probably not the top 5. I'm honestly not sure which ones are the most likely to make it, though.
Borderlands: Probably stands a very good chance at making the top 5 after the success of recent video game adaptations.
The Crow and Kraven the Hunter: Opinions for The Crow generally seem to be "it looks shit but I wanna see it out of morbid curiosity" and as far as I'm aware Kraven is the new instalment in the Sony off-shoot Spider-Man films like Morbius and Madame Web. I'm gonna guess lots of people will watch both, but they'll probably wait for them to drop on digital instead of bothering to go to the cinema.
Not gonna do my ranked list just yet (Shinan please send reminder before the deadline) but I'm gonna think out loud on some of the movies I think might do well.
Deadpool & Wolverine and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: Both deffo gonna be top 5 somewhere. Probably top 3.
Alien: Romulus: I'm thinking it'll be in the top 3, lots of hype in the horror community and Alien is a beloved IP outside of horror circles too. Might have to check how well Prometheus and Covenant did in the box office.
Despicable Me 4, Inside Out 2 & The Garfield Movie: I think all three of them will make the top 10 because family movies, and I expect they'll all rank roughly around the middle, but the question is how will they compare with each other? Pixar seems to have some diminishing interest while Illumination and Sony know how to maximize those numbers.
Kinds of Kindness: The success of Poor Things might be enough to get this in the top 10, but I'm not sure, I think it's gonna have a little too much competition in the summer season.
MaXXXine, I Saw the TV Glow & Longlegs: Massive hype for all 3 in the horror community, but I think MaXXXine might be the only one that stands a chance of making the top 10. It'll definitely be somewhere lower down, though, horror movies are very crippled monetarily compared to other genres.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die: It's the kind of movie I wouldn't expect anyone to care about, but I think it'll surprise me and make the top 10. Maybe it's just cause people around my age aren't gonna be interested in a Bad Boys film in 2024 but if I talked to someone like my boyfriend's parents they might go "oh we went to go see that new Bad Boys film in the cinema" and it's like the only thing they've watched this entire season.
Twisters, The Fall Guy, A Quiet Place: Day One, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Back to Black, IF: These all seem like they could make the top 10 but probably not the top 5. I'm honestly not sure which ones are the most likely to make it, though.
Borderlands: Probably stands a very good chance at making the top 5 after the success of recent video game adaptations.
The Crow and Kraven the Hunter: Opinions for The Crow generally seem to be "it looks shit but I wanna see it out of morbid curiosity" and as far as I'm aware Kraven is the new instalment in the Sony off-shoot Spider-Man films like Morbius and Madame Web. I'm gonna guess lots of people will watch both, but they'll probably wait for them to drop on digital instead of bothering to go to the cinema.
Shinan
4314
Some of these also depend on ratings. R-rated movies can make money, but oftentimes they don't make as much money as the same movie if it was pg-13. I'm mostly thinking of the horror movies. If there's a definite PG-13 horror movie for the kids this summer that is also not terrible it might do good money. But if it is a good R-rated horror movie it'll make enough to be in the top 20. But not the 100million that it would traditionally need to get to top 10)
Also Kinds of Kindness is not going to be in the top 10. Lanthimos' previous two movies (The Favourite and Poor Things) that have had some mainstream appeal all things considered only made around 35 million each. And to get to the top 10 you generally need at least 100 million)
There usually is an animated kids movie at the very top though. The question is which one it'll be Garfield, Inside Out or Despicable Me? Only one can be at the very top and the other two are likely in the 6-10 slots somewhere. Maybe. Probably. (My bets are on Despicable Me, those Minions just can't stop making money, no movie in that franchise has made under 250 million)
Also Kinds of Kindness is not going to be in the top 10. Lanthimos' previous two movies (The Favourite and Poor Things) that have had some mainstream appeal all things considered only made around 35 million each. And to get to the top 10 you generally need at least 100 million)
There usually is an animated kids movie at the very top though. The question is which one it'll be Garfield, Inside Out or Despicable Me? Only one can be at the very top and the other two are likely in the 6-10 slots somewhere. Maybe. Probably. (My bets are on Despicable Me, those Minions just can't stop making money, no movie in that franchise has made under 250 million)
fuck it, might shift some of this around before the cut-off but here's my first draft
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
3. Despicable Me 4
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Borderlands
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
7. The Fall Guy
8. Inside Out 2
9. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
10. The Garfield Movie
Dark horses:
- IF
- MaXXXine
- A Quiet Place: Day One
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
3. Despicable Me 4
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Borderlands
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
7. The Fall Guy
8. Inside Out 2
9. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
10. The Garfield Movie
Dark horses:
- IF
- MaXXXine
- A Quiet Place: Day One
Let's gooooooooooooooooooo!!!
I'm pretty excited for this. Never participated in it, but hyped! And I'm sort of happy that my picks are slightly different to Frogge's, even though I didn't consult his list to make mine. :)
Here's my list!
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
2. Inside Out 2
3. The Fall Guy
4. Despicable Me 4
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
7. Twisters
8. IF
9. The Garfield Movie
10. A Quiet Place: Day One
Dark Horses:
- Alien: Romulus
- The Bikeriders
- Borderlands
I'm pretty excited for this. Never participated in it, but hyped! And I'm sort of happy that my picks are slightly different to Frogge's, even though I didn't consult his list to make mine. :)
Here's my list!
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
2. Inside Out 2
3. The Fall Guy
4. Despicable Me 4
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
7. Twisters
8. IF
9. The Garfield Movie
10. A Quiet Place: Day One
Dark Horses:
- Alien: Romulus
- The Bikeriders
- Borderlands
Shinan
4314
Here's my first draft. I still need to think on it a bit maybe.
1. Despicable Me 4
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
3. Inside Out 2
4. Deadpool 3
5. Furiosa
6. The Fall Guy
7. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Garfield
10. Twisters
Dark Horses:
IF
Fly me to the Moon
Borderlands
EDIT: After looking at how much the previous two Deadpool movies made I switched places between Deadpool 3 and Planet of the Apes.
I had twisters in my Dark Horses until I wrote this down because apparently the original Twister made 250 million in 1996! Adjuster for inflation that would make it the biggest movie of the summer. Of course that was thirty years ago but still... That kind of money is nothing to scoff at.
But I might do some revisions still. Though no "edited by" line at the bottom after deadline, which is before Friday May 3rd by the way.
Oh and since it came up a couple of times on discord the Movie Summer lasts from May 3rd to September 2nd
1. Despicable Me 4
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
3. Inside Out 2
4. Deadpool 3
5. Furiosa
6. The Fall Guy
7. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Garfield
10. Twisters
Dark Horses:
IF
Fly me to the Moon
Borderlands
EDIT: After looking at how much the previous two Deadpool movies made I switched places between Deadpool 3 and Planet of the Apes.
I had twisters in my Dark Horses until I wrote this down because apparently the original Twister made 250 million in 1996! Adjuster for inflation that would make it the biggest movie of the summer. Of course that was thirty years ago but still... That kind of money is nothing to scoff at.
But I might do some revisions still. Though no "edited by" line at the bottom after deadline, which is before Friday May 3rd by the way.
Oh and since it came up a couple of times on discord the Movie Summer lasts from May 3rd to September 2nd
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
2. Inside Out 2
3. Horizon: An American Saga
4. Twisters
5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
6. The Garfield Movie
7. Despicable Me 4
8. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
10. The Fall Guy
Dark Horses:
Borderlands, Alien Romulus, IF
y'all are sleeping on the sheer popularity of Yellowstone, with respect to the Costner cowboy movie Horizon.
2. Inside Out 2
3. Horizon: An American Saga
4. Twisters
5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
6. The Garfield Movie
7. Despicable Me 4
8. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
10. The Fall Guy
Dark Horses:
Borderlands, Alien Romulus, IF
y'all are sleeping on the sheer popularity of Yellowstone, with respect to the Costner cowboy movie Horizon.
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
2. Inside Out 2
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Despicable Me 4
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
6. The Garfield Movie
7. Borderlands
8. Bad Boys IV
9. The Fall Guy
10. IF
Dark Horses: Alien Romulus
Man, the summer movie slate this year isn't great, is it?
At Kentona: Don't count on it. He quit Yellowstone for that movie, and it's been popular to hate Costner again, ever since.
2. Inside Out 2
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Despicable Me 4
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
6. The Garfield Movie
7. Borderlands
8. Bad Boys IV
9. The Fall Guy
10. IF
Dark Horses: Alien Romulus
Man, the summer movie slate this year isn't great, is it?
At Kentona: Don't count on it. He quit Yellowstone for that movie, and it's been popular to hate Costner again, ever since.
Shinan
4314
author=kentonaAre you counting Part 1 or Part 2, since both are coming out this summer. Or are you trying to get away with putting them in as one movie.
y'all are sleeping on the sheer popularity of Yellowstone, with respect to the Costner cowboy movie Horizon.
I will admit Horizon had completely slipped by me and it looks pretty cool... Could be the "movie for adults" that makes a dent this year. But I still have a day to think about it...
author=pianotmI just want to say that that's a bold pick since it comes out in June... 2025.
9. Ballerina: A John Wick Spinoff
Shinan
I just want to say that that's a bold pick since it comes out in June... 2025.
Les oof
Fixed...
Thank you...
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