ULTIMA FANTASY MAFIA - MOVED THREADS - SIGN UPS CLOSED

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InfectionFiles
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
4622
I'm in! Though I dont think I'll be able to do haikus the entire time like Ratty lol
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
On sunny days, I go out walking
1142
if I play in this and get a killing role I will assassinate anyone making haikus
Kloe
I lost my arms in a tragic chibi accident
2236
But that would mean me!
Oh no! I don't want to die!
Please please no, Puppy!
Speaking in verse is a known scumtell.


Anyway, I got to adding the new stuff to my simulation last night and ran the numbers for the current setup. With 12 players, the winners are:

town: 35.9%
mafia: 29.8%
comes down to a coinflip (1 v 1 during day): 13.0%
probably mafia but mostly RNG (equal numbers town/mafia during day): 21.3%

I've made a bunch of rules based on what I'd consider "optimal play" that I won't bore everyone with, but basically this is with zero trust involved (town lynches randomly). No roleclaim logic except for the seer, and there's no counterclaim logic around that. Slow is implemented as a roleblock and I assume the sword starts randomly.

If people have suggestions I can run the numbers with the tweaks applied. I also meant to actually take data for how things pan out with different role combos, but from memory Thief has the lowest impact on the game (~4% swing in favor of mafia) while Assassin has the largest (well, mostly because if there's no assassin but is a doctor, seer is programmed to almost immediately roleclaim).
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
On sunny days, I go out walking
1142
Town won't be lynching randomly so if I am reading this correctly it would seem to be a townsided setup. that is, if your methods can be trusted. ~~
From what I've heard, random lynching on both sides is "optimal" but it's also a good estimation of equal player skill -- town can gradually id mafia, but mafia can nightkill competent players, rolehunt, pull weird gambits, influence day vote.

Oh, yeah, I'll post the source, but this is still gonna be a pretty nice tool either way. Day 2: SIMULATION SAYS 95% WIN RATE IF WE LYNCH CAVE.
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
Psy. Your base stats seem reasonable to me to be a fair game. Especially considering rmn's past of bad towns.

Can you explain the thief and assassin swing factors?
For reference, a baseline game with 12 players (3 mafia), results look like:
town: 10.6%
mafia: 0.0%
the flip of a coin: 22.4%
mafia, provided their luck doesn't suck: 67.1%

Keep in mind those categories I've marked as RNG-based I think would traditionally be considered mafia wins, but the even number of players just skews things a bit because it has to end 2/2 usually.

To determine swing factors, I removed each element from the overall sim one element at a time to see how the percent town vs other outcome moved. Results:
Seer: +11%
White Mage: +5%
Blacksmith: +8%
Assassin: -15%
Black Mage: -8%
Thief: -3%

My guess for why the thief is relatively unimportant is partially because I have them stealing randomly and they only really make a difference when they hit the vigilante sword. In a real game I imagined what it'd be like if the thief just stole from that day's nightkill victim, but it 1) has no added benefit if that person was carrying the sword and 2) just makes it so they die immediately rather than eventually, so maybe it's just that I'm not sure what good play from the thief looks like.

Assassin is a powerhouse because I have them coded to assassinate exposed seers (through the doctor) and any town past a threshold (to seal mafia victory). When the average game lasts 3.8 days (3.8 nightkills), bumping that to 4.8 nightkills average is a big thing, especially one that ignores the white mage's protection.

Not sure why the white mage isn't doing much... Seems the only ones they want to protect get assassinated. In the zero-trust game, the only time the doctor has a good read on a special to protect, mafia also knows enough to assassinate them instead.
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
I don't know if I made it clear enough. Assassinate is a 1-use as long as the assassin is alive. It also replaces the mafia night kill for that night. It does not add an extra kill.
Kloe
I lost my arms in a tragic chibi accident
2236
This will be so great!
I can't wait to play again,
Anticipation!


author=InfectionFiles
I'm in! Though I dont think I'll be able to do haikus the entire time like Ratty lol

>.> I think you mean me...
edit: ignore my mislog
author=Blobofgoo
I don't know if I made it clear enough. Assassinate is a 1-use as long as the assassin is alive. It also replaces the mafia night kill for that night. It does not add an extra kill.
Ah yeah I missed that, I had it modeled as a single extra nightkill that penetrated defenses. Will rerun stuff tonight.
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
How do you have shoddy shields set? Permanent or 1-night?
Shields are set to be permanent. Are they one night only?

Anyway, when assassin is fixed:
town: 42.8%
mafia: 20.9%
the flip of a coin: 13.2%
mafia, provided their luck doesn't suck: 23.2%

Assassin is then -11% to town. It's still pretty high because without an assassin, the seer is free to expose themselves as long as the doctor is alive and hidden.
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
I guess permanent. Meaning a thief will steal them more often.

This is turning very townsided.
author=Blobofgoo
I guess permanent. Meaning a thief will steal them more often.

This is turning very townsided.

I wouldn't say so, looks pretty good to me. 40% town winrate, 40% for a competent mafia.

You could possibly consider changing the lynch rules. I've put in the rules from the last two games I've played here where a tie vote is decided by a coinflip. Traditionally I believe a tie vote can be counted as a no-lynch, meaning that mafia can force a win if they have equal numbers (neutralize the daykill, win at night). That would swing things all the way to 40% town 60% mafia.

Also town does not seem to do well on RMN. Probably because mafia has daychat and it's easier to lie in a post than in person haha.
InfectionFiles
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
4622
Haha, I was gonna say I feel that town needs some help these days. When was the last time they won on RMN?
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
Ah I see. I was misinterpreting your mafia statistics (not counting the "competent mafia part).

I've been meaning to ask another question. Generally the doctor role is given the restriction that they can not save themselves consecutively. I noticed RMN seems to forego this rule, which in my opinion leads to uninteresting end games. What do the rest of you think?
Ratty524
The 524 is for 524 Stone Crabs
12986
I don't really like how the doctor can protect themselves in general, but yeah I'm all for no consecutive protects.
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
I've never bumped a topic before but I figure it's appropriate here.

I believe cave, yellow magic, and tangled should be about ready now. Yes?