[MAFIA] TREACHEROUS - GAME OVER

just talking game theory while avoiding the social aspect is pretty much scum fallback 101 so, after today, I would look closely at demonlord/psy/emily.

CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK

pianotm
Not only that, if I were fakeclaiming, it would be pretty stupid for the real grey detective to counterclaim, especially since the second it's night phase, the grey detective would be in his night chat going, "Dude, that ain't me." Smart town would lynch Cave today and me tomorrow.

So the correct play would instead be to let fakeclaiming scum live forever?

What are you even talking about? I ain't fakeclaiming, and you don't know, but you'll know tomorrow. Promise you that. Lynch me when you know.

pianotm
Not only that, if I were fakeclaiming, it would be pretty stupid for the real grey detective to counterclaim, especially since the second it's night phase, the grey detective would be in his night chat going, "Dude, that ain't me." Smart town would lynch Cave today and me tomorrow.

What makes you think you aren't going to die tonight if not lynched today

Nothing. That ain't up to me.

That Ozzy post gave me whiplash. That's not necessarily scummy though. I could see it as him changing his mind while writing it.
But many of the points he uses to vote piano are things I also mentioned, but I also said that no way was I gonna risk a cop on them.
I'm leaning town on Cave as well, but again, I'm not willing to risk a cop on that.

author=psy_wombats
After playing a game as scum with piano where I spent hours fruitlessly begging him to fakeclaim, I don't think he's fakeclaiming.

I agree, but one way I could still see it happening is if piano's scum partner is the actual Detective Grey. But I don't think it's likely and maybe scum don't even know each other's roles seeing as they haven't been able to communicate yet.

I'm having trouble seeing why, in a town-town detective team, a real detective Grey waiting until night would be preferable over them immediately counterclaiming and nailing scum D1. They should still get to investigate N1 despite getting NKd, and other detective can then get the result out. They can't investigate N2, but I think nailing scum D1 is more valuable than that.
If the other detective is scum, then I guess a detective could not counterclaim in hopes of finding that out at night, but I'm still not sure whether that would be better than nailing scum D1.
But I don't think it ultimately matters because I don't think piano is fakeclaiming.

I guess IF is cursed into never making it past day 1 of any game anymore. But if he hasn't posted for two weeks there's nothing to be done.

Hey, Cap!
What are your thoughts so far?

Oh, the timer has started again.

Well, Cave isn't close to hammer yet, so I guess it's safe to

#Lynch CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK

Would anyone like to hear my Liberty impression

Advocating nokill would probably rile up piano though, so I'll listen.


My only scumread is Ozzy for his piano vote which reads like scum-Ozzy ex post facto logic.

author=OzzyTheOne
the lynch options are either Cave or Piano. Cave with his bizarre randomness, or the more collected Piano, yes, Piano did have 3 votes on him already, but usually I wouldn't see this as landing in any other way than on a Cave lynch, and I'm sure Piano knows that.

????¿?
I guess the case being made here is that despite being 2 votes away from hammer, piano of course knew he was already safe, but decided to fakeclaim to draw out the real detective? And no one has actually counterclaimed piano so why are people still supposing he fakeclaimed to draw someone out? And while I don't think piano should've claimed, it was probably justified given that Cave was talking about hammer at the time, and piano's job is actually valuable.

If the voting wasn't constrained I'd be pushing kill off ozzy, although as it stands I'm fine with cave dying. Not that he's been scummy, just he's been neutral, is guaranteed to have a useless job, and is the only sane option for a kill today.

if we no lynch, logically piano will get nightkilled, which will basically be like if I had won the duel today, which would be cool.

i'm going to post an extensive treatise and if I'm killed before it's done, hang the person who hammers me.

author=psy_wombats
is guaranteed to have a useless job,

this is questionable logic given what the majority of these roles do. There are only 3 that have any real utility.

At this point I strongly agree with something specific Piano said. We should lynch Cave_Dog today and Piano tomorrow if he isn't nk.

I feel a little weird about Piano claiming detective so quickly, since that puts a huge target on him for nightkill. But choosing Cave_Dog today would still leave open the possibility of detectives detecting at least once.

author=OzzyTheOne
In regards to Demon, the only thing I've found suspicious is how he ignored the idea of detective possibly being scum. It's a very weird thing to not consider.

Piano's explanation as to why he cancelled his vote feels a little iffy I refuse to believe that he of all people wouldn't notice that it was Cave that challenged him. If Piano's roleclaim is true, I'd rather we keep him alive until nighttime so that he and the other hopefully not scum detective can at least get some info on someone's aligment.

If I go by that logic I would want to lynch Cave, mostly just because the detective role is more valuable, if not in hands of scum.

On the other hand, Piano might've fakeclaimed in an attempt to see if the real detective Grey made a slip-up. If Piano is scum and not detective Grey, he might've seen Cave's challenge as a big problem and in order to assure survival he could've claimed Det. Grey for two reasons:
1) Assure his survival for one more day and lynching a townie (Cave in this case)
2) Fish for reactions from the actual Det. Grey so that scum can potentially get that problem out of their way. (If they don't have one of the Det. roles in their power.)

There's also the possibility that he really is Det. Grey, but as scum and his claiming his role so early seems like a desperation move to get heat off of him, because why would town want to lynch the one with the Detective Role? I mean, the lynch options are either Cave or Piano. Cave with his bizarre randomness, or the more collected Piano, yes, Piano did have 3 votes on him already, but usually I wouldn't see this as landing in any other way than on a Cave lynch, and I'm sure Piano knows that. To me it looks like he just role-claimed to make sure without a doubt that the vote goes on Cave or a potential no-lynch. I mean, of course he doesn't want to get lynched, who does? But that early roleclaim still iffs me.

I'm gonna vote #lynch_Piano and we'll see where we go from there.

Also, I'm leaning more towards Cave being town than him being scum as of right now. I'm not really certain on Demonlord just yet.

this post is not real