WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW?

october surprise dot png

it's fivethirtyeight's ongoing estimate of each candidate's overall probability of winning, calculated by running simulated elections based on current polling with the results adjusted for economic factors and historical trends

it isn't an expression of overall voter approval, but a projection of what those votes will likely do

this year's projections are also (due to those factors mentioned above) being adjusted in favour of the republican party to a degree that some would say is excessive, so the actual odds might be even more extreme than shown here

the projections use an aggregate of various polls, though some have also criticized fivethirtyeight for being too permissive in terms of the polls it takes into account

I've seen similar, but separate predictions placing Trump's chances as low as 10-20% during his upswing. that seems a little too optimistic to believe at face value, but at least the trends agree.

people also show some concern for the 'shy tory effect', where people respond to polls incorrectly out of shame or bashfulness, but honestly Trump voters are so incredibly loud about their beliefs that I doubt that'd work much in his favour

college-educated people are leaning very strongly towards the Democrats this election, yeah

Republicans still have support from a majority of white people, unsurprisingly, but it's actually a smaller lead than Romney had at this time last election (13% versus Romney's 17% iirc)

that's the thing, yeah, like

has anyone ever been able to get a trump supporter to shut up

that wasn't a value judgement, just a reason why the shy tory effect might not apply to trump voters

I'm not really interested in hearing the ways in which the two camps are Just As Bad as each other. it's a subject that really does nothing for me.

bahleted

Kloe
Elephants and Donkeys are rubbish mascots, I say have a Dogge and a Giraffe!!

I vote that the mascots should be meerkats and duck-billed platypus.