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WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW?
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ubon
66
*emerges from a nearby trash can* hmm that seems like a bit of a reaction....... could someone around here be OFFENDED????
ubon
66
it's fivethirtyeight's ongoing estimate of each candidate's overall probability of winning, calculated by running simulated elections based on current polling with the results adjusted for economic factors and historical trends
it isn't an expression of overall voter approval, but a projection of what those votes will likely do
this year's projections are also (due to those factors mentioned above) being adjusted in favour of the republican party to a degree that some would say is excessive, so the actual odds might be even more extreme than shown here
it isn't an expression of overall voter approval, but a projection of what those votes will likely do
this year's projections are also (due to those factors mentioned above) being adjusted in favour of the republican party to a degree that some would say is excessive, so the actual odds might be even more extreme than shown here
ubon
66
the projections use an aggregate of various polls, though some have also criticized fivethirtyeight for being too permissive in terms of the polls it takes into account
ubon
66
I've seen similar, but separate predictions placing Trump's chances as low as 10-20% during his upswing. that seems a little too optimistic to believe at face value, but at least the trends agree.
people also show some concern for the 'shy tory effect', where people respond to polls incorrectly out of shame or bashfulness, but honestly Trump voters are so incredibly loud about their beliefs that I doubt that'd work much in his favour
people also show some concern for the 'shy tory effect', where people respond to polls incorrectly out of shame or bashfulness, but honestly Trump voters are so incredibly loud about their beliefs that I doubt that'd work much in his favour
Corfaisus
"It's frustrating because - as much as Corf is otherwise an irredeemable person - his 2k/3 mapping is on point." ~ psy_wombats
7874
Saw an article last night about Hillary gaining support in Pennsylvania from women and people with college educations. How about that?
ubon
66
college-educated people are leaning very strongly towards the Democrats this election, yeah
Republicans still have support from a majority of white people, unsurprisingly, but it's actually a smaller lead than Romney had at this time last election (13% versus Romney's 17% iirc)
Republicans still have support from a majority of white people, unsurprisingly, but it's actually a smaller lead than Romney had at this time last election (13% versus Romney's 17% iirc)
why not just start a new topic
yds doesn't even come here any more
also i listeened to the debate on the drive home today and i remember why i don't like any politicians =| democrats are less disgusting this election but i'm not entirely sure pence is wrong about an insult-driven campaign (on EITHER side)
edit: i want pizza
edit2: ubon: tbf i see just as many annoying democrats. trump supporters will put up a sign that says NO MORE IMMIGRANTS and the clinton and/or sanders contingent will set it on fire (almost not being literal here)
yds doesn't even come here any more
also i listeened to the debate on the drive home today and i remember why i don't like any politicians =| democrats are less disgusting this election but i'm not entirely sure pence is wrong about an insult-driven campaign (on EITHER side)
edit: i want pizza
edit2: ubon: tbf i see just as many annoying democrats. trump supporters will put up a sign that says NO MORE IMMIGRANTS and the clinton and/or sanders contingent will set it on fire (almost not being literal here)
ubon
66
that wasn't a value judgement, just a reason why the shy tory effect might not apply to trump voters
I'm not really interested in hearing the ways in which the two camps are Just As Bad as each other. it's a subject that really does nothing for me.
I'm not really interested in hearing the ways in which the two camps are Just As Bad as each other. it's a subject that really does nothing for me.
I understand this political conversation a little bit now because I was taught a bit of american politics earlier today... Yup, that's all!
Elephants and Donkeys are rubbish mascots, I say have a Dogge and a Giraffe!!
Elephants and Donkeys are rubbish mascots, I say have a Dogge and a Giraffe!!
