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WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW?
Posts
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Jeroen_Sol
View playlists
Closeauthor=Liberty
...but also a numbers game...
Which is why lynching on day 1 is a good idea (almost)* always.
Random lynching already nets you mafia about 1/4 of the time, and scumhunting is definitely possible on day 1, especially if new scum are involved, making that chance even higher.
Let's assume a standard 7 town, 2 scum game for an example:
Nolynch worst possible scenario (0% accuracy):
D1: 7-2
D2: 6-2
D3: 4-2 MYLO
D4: 2-2 mafia win.
Lynch worst possible scenario (0% accuracy):
D1: 7-2
D2: 5-2
D3: 3-2 LYLO
D4: 1-2 mafia win.
So in the worst possible scenario, mislynching day 1 makes you lose just as fast as nolynching day 1 does.
Now let's assume lynching has a 50% accuracy:
Nolynch:
D1: 7-2
D2: 6-2
D3: 0.5 5-1 + 0.5 4-2 (50% MYLO)
D4: 0.25 4-0 + 0.5 3-1 + 0.25 2-2 (25% town win, 50% MYLO, 25% scum win)
D5: 0.25 4-0 + 0.25 2-0 + 0.25 1-1 +0.25 2-2 (50% town win, 50% scum win)
Lynch:
D1: 7-2
D2: 0.5 6-1 + 0.5 5-2
D3: 0.25 5-0 + 0.5 4-1 + 0.25 3-2 (25% town win, 25% LYLO)
D4: 0.25 5-0 + 0.25 3-0 + 0.375 2-1 + 0.125 1-2 (50% town win, 37.5% LYLO, 12.5% scum win)
D5: 0.25 5-0 + 0.25 3-0 + 0.1875 1-0 + 0.1875 0-1 + 0.125 1-2 (68.75% town win, 31.25% scum win)
As you can see, lynching instead of nolynching on day 1 makes town's win chance go up from 50% to 68.75%.
But town can't lynch with 50% accuracy, you might interject. Let's look at a 1/3 accuracy then.
Noynch:
D1: 7-2
D2: 6-2
D3: 1/3 5-1 + 2/3 4-2 (66.7% MYLO)
D4: 1/9 4-0 + 4/9 3-1 + 4/9 2-2 (11.1% town win, 44.4% MYLO, 44.4% scum win)
D5: 1/9 4-0 + 4/27 2-0 + 8/27 1-1 + 4/9 2-2 (25.9% town win, 74.1% scum win)
Lynch:
D1: 7-2
D2: 1/3 6-1 + 2/3 5-2
D3: 1/9 5-0 + 4/9 4-1 + 4/9 3-2 (11.1% town win, 44.4% LYLO)
D4: 1/9 5-0 + 4/27 3-0 + 12/27 2-1 + 8/27 1-2 (25.9% town win, 44.4% LYLO, 29.6% scum win)
D5: 1/9 5-0 + 4/27 3-0 + 4/27 1-0 + 24/81 0-1 + 8/27 1-2 (40.7% town win, 59.3% scum win)
As you can see, lynching instead of nolynching on day 1 makes town's win chance go up from 25.9% to 40.7%.
Finally, let's assume town guesses completely randomly. accuracy = s/(s+t). (These calculations are going to suck a lot, but here I go...)
Nolynch:
D1: 7-2
D2: 6-2
D3: 1/4 5-1 + 3/4 4-2 (66.7% MYLO)
D4: 1/20 4-0 + 9/20 3-1 + 1/2 2-2 (5% town win, 45% MYLO, 50% scum win)
D5: 1/20 4-0 + 9/80 2-0 + 27/80 1-1 + 1/2 2-2 (16.25% town win, 83.75% scum win)
Lynch:
D1: 7-2
D2: 2/9 6-1 + 7/9 5-2
D3: 2/63 5-0 + 26/63 4-1 + 35/63 3-2 (55.5% LYLO)
D4: 2/63 5-0 + 26/315 3-0 + 174/315 2-1 + 105/315 1-2 (11.4% town win, 55.2% LYLO, 33.3% scum win)
D5: 2/63 5-0 + 26/315 3-0 + 58/315 1-0 + 116/315 0-1 + 105/315 1-2 (29.8% town win, 70.2% scum win)
As you can see, lynching instead of nolynching on day 1 makes town's win chance go up from 16.25% to 29.8%.
Now random guessing has the lowest possible accuracy of all lynching methods. The only strategies that have lower accuracies are strategies that in some way intentionally lynch town over scum, which town obviously should never do. Even for this lowest possible accuracy, it's still better to lynch day 1 than nolynch. It almost doubles town's win chances in fact!
So Libby, if you accept that mafia is a numbers game, you must also accept that lynching on day 1 is (almost)* always the correct option for town.
* Footnote: It has to be noted that power roles are not taken into account here. If not all townies are valued the same, results may differ. But running through the math on these examples alone took me far too long already.
That's my brother Jeroen for you. <3 (disclaimer not actually my brother)
I always figured the small chance that we'd get a headstart day 1 was worth it, but the numbers speak for themselves apparently! XD
I always figured the small chance that we'd get a headstart day 1 was worth it, but the numbers speak for themselves apparently! XD
Corfaisus
"It's frustrating because - as much as Corf is otherwise an irredeemable person - his 2k/3 mapping is on point." ~ psy_wombats
7874
It's come to my attention that some churches still have a problem addressing the treatment of black people (or lack thereof) in their congregation (something I previously only thought was so prevalent in Mormonism due to the "skin of blackness" verse). This saddens me. I'm not present seeing as I'm not the head of a church, but one of the big things that seemed to have been brought up was the fear of the possibility of ramifications for past injustices being imposed on any church in question, which would undoubtedly affect the finances of said church due to lawsuits.
I feel there's more going on here than what I'm able to read seeing as the phrase "liberalizing" came up pejoratively, but even this has me at pause.
From a Facebook post by someone apparently at the meeting of the ABA.
I feel there's more going on here than what I'm able to read seeing as the phrase "liberalizing" came up pejoratively, but even this has me at pause.
author=Jeroen_SolSo, basically, in a game with no powers it's a good call to lynch day one but otherwise it's dumb. Gotcha.author=Libertynumbers
...but also a numbers game...
When was the last time we played a straight vanilla game?
Also, I'd like to know where this number of 1/4 comes in. That is not an always thing at all and yet you present it as pure factual.
It would depend on the size of the game completely, and whilst playing you have no idea of the set number of mafia so you could be dealing with, most of the time, anything from 1-3 mafia in a decent sized game. That's a hell of a change to your mathematical equations and chances right there.
In a game of 13 where there's only 1 mafia that's a 1/13th chance. In a game of 13 where there's 2 mafia that's a 1/6.5 chance. Those numbers aren't good at all for town to be hedging on on the first day.
In a game of 13 where there's 3 mafia, that's where things start to be more likely (with a 1/4 chance) but as a player you can't know the amount so you have to try and figure with those three outcomes. It's better to wait that day and see how the powers combine and get more information in that case instead of potentially killing off strong players.
kentona
I am thinking about how I am out of rye and have resorted to drinking rum like a common pirate.
Rum is good, and so is Scotch, but my favorite are the cordials. I don't particularly like beer, but some beers are good, too. Irish Red, I'm surprised I actually like. This coming from someone who usually goes multiple months between drinks, and never drinks enough to get drunk.
EDIT: Well, I get a little buzzed occasionally.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
author=Liberty
...but otherwise it's dumb. Gotcha.
That is obviously not something you can conclude from these numbers. I'll have to write some code to handle some power games since this was hard enough, but if anything, the sheer size of the gap in win chance between lynching vs nolynching in these vanilla cases makes me pretty convinced it'll hold true then as well. But it might not. We'll see.
author=Liberty
Also, I'd like to know where this number of 1/4 comes in. That is not an always thing at all and yet you present it as pure factual.
I said about 1/4, which for the average game is about right for day one, (2/9, 4/16, 3/13 etc are all pretty close. Sure, 2/13 is a little lower, but that doesn't happen very often) but I ran the numbers with the actual probability, s/(s+t) as well, as you'll see. Not that it really matters. Even on day 1 you don't lynch randomly. You lynch who looks worst on day 1. And depending on whether that person was scum or town, you can get a lot of information from people defending them/steering the lynch somewhere else/tunnelling them that you would not have gotten if everyone just nolynched day 1. Not to mention that especially new scum tend to look pretty bad day 1.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
The important thing here is to kill as many people as possible, as fast as possible. You can come up with reasons afterwards.
So apparently I am a Blue Mage to start my Four Job Fiesta. Is that good? The last time I played FF5 I avoided the Blue Mage since the translation I had didn't translate any of the blue magic spells.
demonlord5000
680
Blue mage is good I think, but I can't remember how good he is in the early game. I'm fairly sure there is at least one good spell early game. I suggest letting faris drive the pirate ship since we don't want you drinking rum and driving too. You might end up crashing the ship.
Blue Mage is great in a "once you put Farore's Wind on B button you can go to the twins house and drop a warp point then go and beat king dodongo and when you hit the blue warp it'll teleport you to the credits gg you just beat zelda" kind of way. But if you don't know the good blue magic to pick up and how to use it you're kinda wandering aimlessly wondering why Goblin Punch is such trash. It doesn't help that a lot of good Blue Magic requires a Trainer to use !Control on a monster so it'll use said Blue Magic, usually healing stuff. Plus since FF5 has two big points of no return never mind one time dungeons you can miss easy/good sources of blue magic just by progressing the game.
One big thing is that Blue Mages can equip rods which means you can equip->use them to deal level 3 elemental damage that ignores defense (or was that just cracking rods in FF6?). Once you get to Karnak and can buy rods you can roll a lot of shit by breaking rods on their face.
Here's a general tips document for the 4JF including suggestions for specific classes. There's some vague talk of advanced strategies (Black Spark to half level or inflict Old to slowly reduce enemy level until it is a multiple of 5 then hit them with L5 Doom but IMO that's really obnoxious).
Here is a list of good blue magic. Remember that to learn Blue Magic the spell must connect (so L5 Doom must hit somebody) and the learner must be alive at the end of the battle.
Vampire
From the bats in the first cave of the game
Drains HP from enemies based on HP lost, the Damage:HP ratio varies between versions of the game. Good for having a self heal
Goblin Punch
Fight Black Goblins early in the game
Regular attack that deals x8 damage if the target's level matches the user's. Basically requires metaknowledge.
Another use is that it deals damage based on your listed attack power so when you get the Excalipoor and its 100 attack power you can do good damage since regular Fight commands with the Excalipoor only do garbage damage.
Aero 1/2/3
Various enemies. 1 from Moldwinds in the Wind Shrine, 2 from Gigas in the exploding castle or Page 32 in the dungeon right after it. 3 is from the nameless crystals boss in the forest in the 2nd world.
Deals wind element damage. Having the Air Knife equipped will boost Wind damage too when you get it in... World 2? Not bad to have.
Frog Song
Elf Toads in the Walrus Castle Tower dungeon where you get Shiva
Inflicts toads on all enemies. Sometimes useful.
????
Wild Nack enemies after the Walz Meteor
Deals damage = MaxHP - CurrentHP. Stacks well with Monks and against high DEF enemies.
There's no indicator when this skill is used by enemies but it has a different animation to know when it's used.
Flash
Crew Dust in the Fire Powered Ship dungeon. You'll get hit by this for sure.
OR feed an ether to the tomestones on the first mountain dungeon and they'll use it
Inflicts blind on all enemies. Blind enemies can't hit as often which is good.
Exploder
Motor Trap on the Fire Powered Ship. Hit them with a lighting elemental attack to trigger it.
Kill the user dealing damage = MaxHP. Only useful on a boss late in the game that uses a ton of Blue Magic. If you hit him with Exploder he learns that spell and might use it on you, killing himself with it.
Aqua Rake
Chimera enemies that spawn in deserts between the Fire Kingdom and the Library
Deals heavy damage to all enemies. Also deals x8 damage to desert enemies. Some versions are nonelemental, others are water afaik.
Death Claw
Death Claw boss when escaping the exploding castle
Reduces a target to single digit HP and inflicts paralysis. Sometimes useful.
L5 Death
Page 256 of the Library.
Kills all enemies whose level is a multiple of 5. Basically need meta knowledge to take advantage of it. Can cheese a few bosses with it.
Make sure one character's level is a multiple of 5 to learn it. If it doesn't hit anybody you won't. Also make sure that your entire party doesn't have a multiple of 5 level because it will kill your entire party! Also players usually get to the library dungeon around level 15.
Guard Off
Page 256
Reduces defense and magic defense of an enemy. You need !Control to get Page 256 to use it though.
Magic Hammer
Byblos, boss of the library.
I think it's his opening move? Halves MP of the target.
Black Shock
Black Flames on Cresent Island.
Halves target's level. Mostly for manipulating enemy levle to hit them with L3 Flare or L5 Doom. Make sure to pick this up, it's part of some bosses cheese strats.
Missile
Missile Turrets of the flying ruins.
Deals 75% damage. The usual gravity spell caveats applies for usefulness.
Emission / Flamethrower
The other turrent of the flying ruins.
Deals fire damage. Not great next to breaking Fire Rods but cheaper on gil. Good to have.
Note that the four turret enemies where you can fight the above two enemies are random. You might get unlucky and only fight one.
L4 Quarter
Hydras in the Floating Ruins. Used when killed.
Inflicts Quarter (HP becomes 3/4) if target's level is a multiple of 4. Usual gravity caveats apply.
White Wind
Enchanted Fans in the Floating Ruins
OR Rabbit dudes in Exdeath's CastleHeals the party equal to the caster's current HP. Always applies, even through reflect or the BoneMail.
You need to confuse or !Control them to get them to use White Wind on your party though. The Dancing Knife can inflict confuse 1/8th of the time if you don't have any other way to do so.
Blow Fish
Lamia in the Floating Ruins
Deals 1000 damage. Also requires !Control.
e: wow that looks way uglier than I thought, fixed to remove tables
e2: also only up to the 1st world. 2nd world has a few more (L3 Flare from Red Dragons in Barrier Tower, requires !Control) that I can fill in later
One big thing is that Blue Mages can equip rods which means you can equip->use them to deal level 3 elemental damage that ignores defense (or was that just cracking rods in FF6?). Once you get to Karnak and can buy rods you can roll a lot of shit by breaking rods on their face.
Here's a general tips document for the 4JF including suggestions for specific classes. There's some vague talk of advanced strategies (Black Spark to half level or inflict Old to slowly reduce enemy level until it is a multiple of 5 then hit them with L5 Doom but IMO that's really obnoxious).
Here is a list of good blue magic. Remember that to learn Blue Magic the spell must connect (so L5 Doom must hit somebody) and the learner must be alive at the end of the battle.
Vampire
From the bats in the first cave of the game
Drains HP from enemies based on HP lost, the Damage:HP ratio varies between versions of the game. Good for having a self heal
Goblin Punch
Fight Black Goblins early in the game
Regular attack that deals x8 damage if the target's level matches the user's. Basically requires metaknowledge.
Another use is that it deals damage based on your listed attack power so when you get the Excalipoor and its 100 attack power you can do good damage since regular Fight commands with the Excalipoor only do garbage damage.
Aero 1/2/3
Various enemies. 1 from Moldwinds in the Wind Shrine, 2 from Gigas in the exploding castle or Page 32 in the dungeon right after it. 3 is from the nameless crystals boss in the forest in the 2nd world.
Deals wind element damage. Having the Air Knife equipped will boost Wind damage too when you get it in... World 2? Not bad to have.
Frog Song
Elf Toads in the Walrus Castle Tower dungeon where you get Shiva
Inflicts toads on all enemies. Sometimes useful.
Garula, the boss of the Walz Tower, is vulernable to toad
????
Wild Nack enemies after the Walz Meteor
Deals damage = MaxHP - CurrentHP. Stacks well with Monks and against high DEF enemies.
There's no indicator when this skill is used by enemies but it has a different animation to know when it's used.
Flash
Crew Dust in the Fire Powered Ship dungeon. You'll get hit by this for sure.
OR feed an ether to the tomestones on the first mountain dungeon and they'll use it
Inflicts blind on all enemies. Blind enemies can't hit as often which is good.
Exploder
Motor Trap on the Fire Powered Ship. Hit them with a lighting elemental attack to trigger it.
Kill the user dealing damage = MaxHP. Only useful on a boss late in the game that uses a ton of Blue Magic. If you hit him with Exploder he learns that spell and might use it on you, killing himself with it.
Aqua Rake
Chimera enemies that spawn in deserts between the Fire Kingdom and the Library
Deals heavy damage to all enemies. Also deals x8 damage to desert enemies. Some versions are nonelemental, others are water afaik.
Death Claw
Death Claw boss when escaping the exploding castle
Reduces a target to single digit HP and inflicts paralysis. Sometimes useful.
L5 Death
Page 256 of the Library.
Kills all enemies whose level is a multiple of 5. Basically need meta knowledge to take advantage of it. Can cheese a few bosses with it.
Make sure one character's level is a multiple of 5 to learn it. If it doesn't hit anybody you won't. Also make sure that your entire party doesn't have a multiple of 5 level because it will kill your entire party! Also players usually get to the library dungeon around level 15.
Guard Off
Page 256
Reduces defense and magic defense of an enemy. You need !Control to get Page 256 to use it though.
Magic Hammer
Byblos, boss of the library.
I think it's his opening move? Halves MP of the target.
Black Shock
Black Flames on Cresent Island.
Halves target's level. Mostly for manipulating enemy levle to hit them with L3 Flare or L5 Doom. Make sure to pick this up, it's part of some bosses cheese strats.
Missile
Missile Turrets of the flying ruins.
Deals 75% damage. The usual gravity spell caveats applies for usefulness.
Emission / Flamethrower
The other turrent of the flying ruins.
Deals fire damage. Not great next to breaking Fire Rods but cheaper on gil. Good to have.
Note that the four turret enemies where you can fight the above two enemies are random. You might get unlucky and only fight one.
L4 Quarter
Hydras in the Floating Ruins. Used when killed.
Inflicts Quarter (HP becomes 3/4) if target's level is a multiple of 4. Usual gravity caveats apply.
White Wind
Enchanted Fans in the Floating Ruins
OR Rabbit dudes in Exdeath's Castle
You need to confuse or !Control them to get them to use White Wind on your party though. The Dancing Knife can inflict confuse 1/8th of the time if you don't have any other way to do so.
Blow Fish
Lamia in the Floating Ruins
Deals 1000 damage. Also requires !Control.
e: wow that looks way uglier than I thought, fixed to remove tables
e2: also only up to the 1st world. 2nd world has a few more (L3 Flare from Red Dragons in Barrier Tower, requires !Control) that I can fill in later
Corfaisus
"It's frustrating because - as much as Corf is otherwise an irredeemable person - his 2k/3 mapping is on point." ~ psy_wombats
7874
Once you get to the third world, make sure you've learned L3 Flare and spam them on the Ankhegs and Ammonites in the desert outside the Phoenix Tower for easy grinding.
http://i.imgur.com/DMaPDtt.gif
It will not show up here but everyone should check this link for fuzzies.
It will not show up here but everyone should check this link for fuzzies.
Corfaisus
"It's frustrating because - as much as Corf is otherwise an irredeemable person - his 2k/3 mapping is on point." ~ psy_wombats
7874
When "sorry man" just won't cover it. If someone says "back the blue" in response to this, whose side do you take? Is there something in the law about a cop shooting another cop? How many years do they get?
Pretty sure there's something in the law about it, yeah. It can't have been the first time there's been friendly fire between cops in a fire fight, so I'm sure there's precedence. Doubt they'll get any years and they shouldn't considering it was an accident in the middle of a gun fight at night. >.>
Corfaisus
"It's frustrating because - as much as Corf is otherwise an irredeemable person - his 2k/3 mapping is on point." ~ psy_wombats
7874
My brain doesn't know what the soundtrack to my soul should be right now. It's either Soul Asylum's Runaway Train or Godsmack's Awake. LOOP messes with your head space.
