[MAFIA] PRISONER'S DILEMMA. GAME OVER

Long post incoming but I'll just go ahead first and say that the bunch of stuffs that I'm gonna explain won't reflect my final vote on D2 because of ~practicality~ reasons and that we really need to get the "major" problem out of the way first or else we'll be in circles in the upcoming days.

Ok, so about shinan. I was thinking since lib/piano went on him, it wouldn't make sense to not retract their votes when the bandwagon started rolling. Granted, they WERE kinda afk when it happened. But now I'm kinda leaning shinan's town. Considering the fact that shinan actually piped in when I/someone else called him out for not being talkative enough, he still did NOT retract his vote on psy, seeing that the bandwagoned piled up the first AND second time and he understood very well that his vote is also important for psy to be hammered.

He stubbornly kept his vote till the end despite knowing psy could be hammered anytime. Going by that logic it's hard to see how he's scum. If he is, then he's a very poor one.

Also I've noticed that Lib didn't vote on psy and vice versa. Seeing her lynches it's like she's actively trying to avoid lynching her teammates. I don't think she's too comfortable bussing her teammates actually. BUT, BOTH of them DID lynch on piano. It's like they're actively trying to find a scapegoat and decided on him!

So, if we took account that he IS actually town, we've actually narrowed down the list to seven people.

1)PA
2)Piano
3)tale
4)Fomar
5)AE
6)odd
7)demon

PA - So I've been looking at cave's list of everyone's lynches. PA, he lynched Liberty, psy and piano. Two which were scum. He was well aware I just got back and re-reading the forum and instead of "#lynch shinan whoopsies" he didn't go for it.

Piano - He lynched psy, lib, shinan, PA. Again, I was trying to call out shinan's lack of participation, piano's well aware it was fruitless, there were only 1/2 lynches on him which was liberty's and kitten's (at that point I think kitten already retracted her vote then put it on again after piano's), he added his vote to make him "speak" (like I did with couple of newbies/untalkative people in this game and the past) and seeing his vote was only the 2nd/3rd, I don't find it hard to believe that he didn't actually expected people to jump on the bandwagon. And even if he did try, he knew that if shinan DID ended up getting hammered and me being still alive in D2, I would definitely call out for his bullshit. So, this part makes me less likely to think he's KINDA not scum. But....!!

Tale - Now, he's a problematic one. He was well aware I was frustrated and called him out several times, despite that, instead of saying his piece, he keeps on "inviting" people to "ask" him stuffs on "what they wanna know". He even REPLIES and ACKNOWLEDGES this instead of straight up discussing what happened D1 on D2. He even mentioned because there was "little information" he wasn't able to "form" an opinion back on D1. You supposed that by D2 and with 2 scum deaths, he'd be more eager to throw his piece and start making accusations. Nope. Initial and only vote was on psy's then after heat on him was off he switched to no lynch instead, then, not voting at all.

Fomar - So, he has the same problem as tale. Knowing that I'm calling him out and not doing anything about it. Also forms very, very minimal opinions on others despite being D2, and, again, 2 scum deaths. Initially made a "joke" vote on liberty since she "popped" his "lynch cherry" and voted him, also made that list why we should vote on her "1. Revenge 2. Would be funny if we can say "haha do you remember that time we got liberty lynched" 3. (forgot what the 3rd was) 4. Revenge". This looks a bit tad friendly for a first timer with someone else! BUT, he also jumped on the bandwagon on psy (which I don't think a newbie would be comfortable enough to bus his scum partner early on/in their first game, THEN, also jumped on shinan's bandwagon, which also only goes to show he's obviously wishy washy with his votes. Special note is he ALSO voted for PA TWICE and also voted no-lynch. If he's scum, then it would stick out like a sore thumb to shift the blame on a very easy target that every one didn't care to be lynched (aka PA).

AE - See, the thing about AE is that, she's actually too good to be scum. At first, she explicitly stated that she was very willing to lynch either PA or psy. Then after piano and lib's "argument", she also said she'd be willing to lynch either. When the time came, she did put the nail on the coffin on psy. At first, she lynched tale at the beginning of the game, which she shortly retracted and said she "doesn't believe" is scum. Later she lynched PA because she thought his "claim" was "too much of a stretch". She's been very wise with her votes so far and not being all-over the place - the type that the more you think about it, the more you think maybe there's more to her..! There is a small chance that since she knows I'm a very aggressive player, she's been trying to stay as smart as possible and not raise any suspicions towards my end, and that she's trying to play her cards right.

Odd - So, errrrm, odd's odd. Yep. Only lynch was on psy, did not even bother to cancel his vote even if his bandwagon was temporarily shifted. Kinda like shinan. How boring!

Demon - So, yeah I know I was kinda irked that he asked too many nonsense/obvious questions but mid game in D1 he proved to be pretty decent and level-headed, was "conscious" and accepting of the points raised towards the other scums. He not only is willing to put the final hammer on the lynches but he also doesn't rush and let them defend themselves first before hammering, waiting for both sides to give their piece. His only lynches were on psy and shinan. Leaning heavily town on him.

After re-reading psy's and liberty's posts, I've come across one that I've mentioned prior to Ozzy on N1:

https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24686/?post=887514#post887514

If you've actually remember during her catfight with piano, in one of her post she said, "Honestly, I am certain that Ivory (and, uh, beside me I guess??) are the only confirmed town".

Cool. There's nothing wrong with that, right? Except on that link above, she says that I was only "occasionally chiming in" and "at least trying to be useful" (WTF?), which was a completely different tone from her previous post that I was "definitely" "town", AND, she seemed to be trying to make the opportunity to actually imply that I COULD be scum..!!

I did warn her that I didn't appreciate her calling me that but was glad because it was the slip-up that I needed to confirm my suspicions that she was scum so that's why we decided to target her N1.

Ok, now that that's outta the way, look at this post:

Notice how on psy's she commented: "psy has been active where possible and if he is away from internet, that's fair and fine."

She completely SKIMMED through the previous argument of him and piano, AND, also the bandwagon that was on him. Seems like she's REALLY actively trying to shift the spotlight off him.

Now, I KNOW there are a couple that she commented that SEEM similar, which ARE:

1) "piano posts about as much as I do."
2) "Emily posts enough that I notice she's around."

BUT, the one that actually takes the cake is this--->!!!

"tale drops in from time to time but probably could afford to talk a bit more, but at least they're playing."

Notice the first part she's commenting of a somewhat neutral/near-negative aspect of him but on the latter she's saying something positive. Now let's compare it with psy's.

"psy has been active where possible and if he is away from internet, that's fair and fine."

I KNOW I'm probably being WAY too paranoid and nitpicky but from her pattern of being "sneaky" and faking "wishy-washy-ness" when scum from the ^^^above post (I think piano also mentioned this too that he noticed if lib was scum she'd act a bit indecisive and sneaky), but this post was really too much of a tell.

I KNOW it's a far stretch but that pattern, along with what PA explained earlier, kinda seals the deal.

Ok, back to the "original" post.

I know I've mentioned that that's what irked me the most about tale from lib's post, BUT, I know that ALL of us are still torn between PA & piano.

And as much I want/don't mind lynching tale, I would prefer it if we got them outta the way so everyone wouldn't keep doubting either of them and going in circles.

PA, you said that if we lynched you we definitely have to lynch piano and vice versa. Well, I'm here reminding you that I WILL hold on to his word to lynch as well if piano DOES flip town, and you're lucky my partner is willing to lynch piano first.

Oh, and in case anyone's wondering, you can backtrack yourself in D1 and you'll notice that I've never once acknowledge ozzy's "townie-ness/"scumminess" (because, duh, we're masons).

You're welcome.

I'm guessing there were 3 scum in this game to begin with? 9 town vs 4 scum would be too skewed without any pre-determined handicaps for scum.

So let's see, now we are 10 vs 1. So if Piano flips town and I am killed afterwards, and scum hits both of their night kills, we will still be 6 vs 1, right? Even if he flips town, and then I flip town, the game is far from lost. In any case, we are both not confirmed and thus far less valuable. We have to start culling some of the non-confirmed townies. So even though I know I'm town, it's not the end of the world if I end up dying.

Yeah, you can go ahead and kill me if he flips town. I'll stick my hand in the fire. It would really suck to die like that, but my hunch is strong enough that I think it's worth the risk.

author=ivoryjones
Also, before I make my next post explaining the above^^ further, I'll just come out and say that me and ozzy are masons. Also, I'm the 1-shot vig that shot Liberty yesterday.

Woot woot ^-^

inb4 psy and liberty are laughing at me in the dead chat

author=OzzyTheOne

author=ivoryjones
Also, before I make my next post explaining the above^^ further, I'll just come out and say that me and ozzy are masons. Also, I'm the 1-shot vig that shot Liberty yesterday.

Woot woot ^-^

Jolly cooperation!

author=ivoryjones
This looks a bit tad friendly for a first timer with someone else!

I'm friends with Liberty outside of mafia.

author=ivoryjones
Special note is he ALSO voted for PA TWICE and also voted no-lynch.

I was no lynch for 13 minutes after running simulations based on random lynching and kills, ironically it was Psy who pointed out that I hadn't coded one of the rules correctly. Following the correction I went back to lynching.
As for why PA because I didn't and don't understand why he did and said half of what he did.

I'm vanilla town, I didn't want to deal with extra things on my first game.