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[MAFIA] PRISONER'S DILEMMA. GAME OVER
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tale
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demonlord5000
680
Oh I see, I think I misinterpreted due to the way it was phrased. Emily has sounded town-ish to me for most of the game, though I did think it was odd that she avoided answering to direct confrontation. I'm not sure if that's a scum tell or not because other than that her posts have been consistant and come off helpful most of the time.
Fomar0153
16396
Ok probably get ninja'd while I type all of this but I'll try and go through everyone.
Given there is only one scum left there is absolutely no way that Ozzy and Ivory are anything other than town.
Kittenfood is next on my town list, the only possible way she could be scum is if in their chat they realised Psy and Libby were done and withheld their kill and told Kittenfood to say she bodyguarded and prevented the night kill but this seems unlikely to me, far more likely is that Kittenfood is what she appears to be.
I've said it before killing Shinan is weird, we would have lynched him eventually. It looks like a new player mistake but honestly I'd like to think people don't think I'm that stupid. As for the other two new players; hypothetically if Kittenfood was the last scum then maybe it was a really clever move as it puts suspicion on me, Tale and Emily, enough days worth of lynches to win. As for Tale they pushed for themself to by lynched, maybe they're not enjoying the game or maybe it's to look innocent, I'm not sure.
Another option with the Shinan kill is that they thought no one would protect him in the case that we had more than one bodyguard or that Kitten lied about being one shot.
So that leaves:
PlatinumAshes who I still don't understand but they seem to have changed how they are playing since day 1. I'm inclined towards town because after his huge push to lynch Piano he must have known he was probably next. Then again his entire play style seems very high risk, claiming multiple power roles on day 1, wouldn't that make you a target for the mafia kill? Or was he vanilla town and trying to protect the real power roles? I just don't know, I'm ok with lynching though if that's what people want to do.
AlaskanEmily seemed like town but obviously the Shinan kill casts a bit of doubt but I still think she's town as she seems geuninely helpful.
oddrabbit I'm still neutral on but killing Shinan makes him the least active player which isn't an ideal position. Also in his favour he was involved with lynching Psy and not involved with lynching Piano.
demonlord was the reason I didn't end up being the hammer for Psy but then he was the hammer the second time around, also again like Emily he seems genuinely helpful.
I should probably defend myself some as well being as if Shinan was a newbie mistake then I'm one of the most suspicious. On day one had I not been ninja'd I would have been hammer on Psy, other people e.g. Emily pointed out that neither Libby or Psy were around at the time. If I were scum and bussing surely Libby would have been the best target being as she was vanilla and lots of people had their suspicions about her (though I confess not me)? Also wouldn't I as the newbie have made for the best bus?
Whomever the last scum is they are definitely hiding better.
Given there is only one scum left there is absolutely no way that Ozzy and Ivory are anything other than town.
Kittenfood is next on my town list, the only possible way she could be scum is if in their chat they realised Psy and Libby were done and withheld their kill and told Kittenfood to say she bodyguarded and prevented the night kill but this seems unlikely to me, far more likely is that Kittenfood is what she appears to be.
I've said it before killing Shinan is weird, we would have lynched him eventually. It looks like a new player mistake but honestly I'd like to think people don't think I'm that stupid. As for the other two new players; hypothetically if Kittenfood was the last scum then maybe it was a really clever move as it puts suspicion on me, Tale and Emily, enough days worth of lynches to win. As for Tale they pushed for themself to by lynched, maybe they're not enjoying the game or maybe it's to look innocent, I'm not sure.
Another option with the Shinan kill is that they thought no one would protect him in the case that we had more than one bodyguard or that Kitten lied about being one shot.
So that leaves:
PlatinumAshes who I still don't understand but they seem to have changed how they are playing since day 1. I'm inclined towards town because after his huge push to lynch Piano he must have known he was probably next. Then again his entire play style seems very high risk, claiming multiple power roles on day 1, wouldn't that make you a target for the mafia kill? Or was he vanilla town and trying to protect the real power roles? I just don't know, I'm ok with lynching though if that's what people want to do.
AlaskanEmily seemed like town but obviously the Shinan kill casts a bit of doubt but I still think she's town as she seems geuninely helpful.
oddrabbit I'm still neutral on but killing Shinan makes him the least active player which isn't an ideal position. Also in his favour he was involved with lynching Psy and not involved with lynching Piano.
demonlord was the reason I didn't end up being the hammer for Psy but then he was the hammer the second time around, also again like Emily he seems genuinely helpful.
I should probably defend myself some as well being as if Shinan was a newbie mistake then I'm one of the most suspicious. On day one had I not been ninja'd I would have been hammer on Psy, other people e.g. Emily pointed out that neither Libby or Psy were around at the time. If I were scum and bussing surely Libby would have been the best target being as she was vanilla and lots of people had their suspicions about her (though I confess not me)? Also wouldn't I as the newbie have made for the best bus?
Whomever the last scum is they are definitely hiding better.
Fomar0153
16396
From a pure mathematical point of view if we don't find the last scum and there is one lynch and one kill every day/night from now then the following happens:
Day 3 (now):
1 scum / 8 town
Day 4:
1 scum / 6 town
Day 5:
1 scum / 4 town
Day 6:
1 scum / 2 town which is better than 1 scum / 3 town as the final day.
While that does leave the last scum enough time to eliminate the confirmed three town, it increases their odds of losing because we won't be lynching the confirmed town in the mean time. The far better play would have been to kill Ivory, Ozzy or Kitten. Although as said before they might have been concerned about having their kill blocked again.
Although the more I think about the Shinan kill I just seem to go in circles. I'm not sure how productive it is.
Day 3 (now):
1 scum / 8 town
Day 4:
1 scum / 6 town
Day 5:
1 scum / 4 town
Day 6:
1 scum / 2 town which is better than 1 scum / 3 town as the final day.
While that does leave the last scum enough time to eliminate the confirmed three town, it increases their odds of losing because we won't be lynching the confirmed town in the mean time. The far better play would have been to kill Ivory, Ozzy or Kitten. Although as said before they might have been concerned about having their kill blocked again.
Although the more I think about the Shinan kill I just seem to go in circles. I'm not sure how productive it is.
the last move was so unbelievably strange i refuse to believe a new player would make it. even someone who hasn't played the game before would figure out you should kill one of the people in charge making decisions. it's common sense.
but hey, if it's not too rude, just wanna say to villagers that even if you're vanilla or don't think you're useful i would like a little less of the "when i die, then you will realize" strategy and instead a little more fighting for your life when the rest of town wants to kill you. piano was a mistake and did fight really hard before giving up, but that doesn't apply to anyone if you're just saying "no lynch me and find out"!
just because we have mislynch doesn't mean we should keep doing it forever because people request it so that they can say i told you so later. what i'm saying is, if you're not fool doing weird shit or a role that is USEFUL when lynched, please don't vote yourself unless you've absolutely gotta.
but hey, if it's not too rude, just wanna say to villagers that even if you're vanilla or don't think you're useful i would like a little less of the "when i die, then you will realize" strategy and instead a little more fighting for your life when the rest of town wants to kill you. piano was a mistake and did fight really hard before giving up, but that doesn't apply to anyone if you're just saying "no lynch me and find out"!
just because we have mislynch doesn't mean we should keep doing it forever because people request it so that they can say i told you so later. what i'm saying is, if you're not fool doing weird shit or a role that is USEFUL when lynched, please don't vote yourself unless you've absolutely gotta.
Fomar, while it seems helpful that you're using statistics to predict the chances of winning/ losing. Please don't give scum ideas until the game is over. In D2 I voted myself, because I don't want scum to copy me by my votes.
demon, remember that in D1 I told you about my suspicion of PA even though I didn't vote other than psy but canceled and same with liberty. In D2 I wasn't really sure that PA's a scum. Now I'm certain that he isn't one.
Last post from shinan, he was so certain about something. Last thing he said was actually an explanation of why, Formar.
Emily did answered my post about D1 in D2- I feel that there's guilt somewhere along the lines of what happened. I'm sorry for bringing that up.
kitten, oh okay I'll keep that strategy in mind. I'm trying to say that PA is certainly not scum. yeah, he play suspiciously but I think he's being framed too.
Ignore my request.
demon, remember that in D1 I told you about my suspicion of PA even though I didn't vote other than psy but canceled and same with liberty. In D2 I wasn't really sure that PA's a scum. Now I'm certain that he isn't one.
Last post from shinan, he was so certain about something. Last thing he said was actually an explanation of why, Formar.
Emily did answered my post about D1 in D2- I feel that there's guilt somewhere along the lines of what happened. I'm sorry for bringing that up.
kitten, oh okay I'll keep that strategy in mind. I'm trying to say that PA is certainly not scum. yeah, he play suspiciously but I think he's being framed too.
Ignore my request.
Fomar0153
16396
author=tale
Fomar, while it seems helpful that you're using statistics to predict the chances of winning/ losing. Please don't give scum ideas until the game is over.
They shouldn't be new ideas, we have three confirmed town, should all the non-confirmed die, and the scum is left with just confirmed town then they'll lose instantly. I know it's my first game but surely confirmed town should be the absolute priority?
author=tale
Last post from shinan, he was so certain about something. Last thing he said was actually an explanation of why, Formar.
Explanations are for people with something to hide.
Y'all know I'm right. Just give into it.
Maybe I'm just not as random as I seem. Who knows?
But if I don't say anything people just complain.
I feel like I did good in the first day. So I've done my part and will let y'all choose the rest of the correct people to murder.
That's the entire of his day 2 correspondence, had he have turned out to a detective we'd all be lynching Emily but he was vanilla. He's also said he chose Psy on day 1 because he was the person who posted before him. I honestly don't think Shinan had any great insights.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Damn, sorry Piano.
Since you were town, I realize that that was not bussing. You actually just played very well on that Day 1.
At least I had my revenge on you! But it doesn't feel nearly as good as when you would have flipped scum.
Since you were town, I realize that that was not bussing. You actually just played very well on that Day 1.
At least I had my revenge on you! But it doesn't feel nearly as good as when you would have flipped scum.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
I don't have time to post in detail now, I'll try to do si later tonight. But we have all the way until Sunday.
If you guys decide to lynch me, then please wait and give me time respond and post my reads first!
If you guys decide to lynch me, then please wait and give me time respond and post my reads first!
author=Fomar0153
They shouldn't be new ideas, we have three confirmed town, should all the non-confirmed die, and the scum is left with just confirmed town then they'll lose instantly. I know it's my first game but surely confirmed town should be the absolute priority?
author=tale
Last post from shinan, he was so certain about something. Last thing he said was actually an explanation of why, Formar.
Explanations are for people with something to hide.
Y'all know I'm right. Just give into it.
Maybe I'm just not as random as I seem. Who knows?
But if I don't say anything people just complain.
I feel like I did good in the first day. So I've done my part and will let y'all choose the rest of the correct people to murder.
That's the entire of his day 2 correspondence, had he have turned out to a detective we'd all be lynching Emily but he was vanilla. He's also said he chose Psy on day 1 because he was the person who posted before him. I honestly don't think Shinan had any great insights.
Looking back at psy's post which he confirms scum-
he thinks that
1 scum / 2 town which is better than 1 scum / 3 town as the final day.
For town we need more numbers to outnumber scum, it's the other way around.
If I was scum I wouldn't make that mistake on a first game. It sounds like framing new players. I believe you're not scum. Maybe there's fumbling scum who's first time playing as one. What do you mean by kill-blocked and has that been confirmed? So according to your stats town will win eventually?
I meant recent shinan's post into context with the post before-
"Y'all know I'm right. Just give into it." -This was after piano canceled his emily vote and piano share his words of wisdom.
Doesn't anyone agree that I'm more suspicious than PA? Don't kill PA
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
author=ivoryjones
No one's lynching anyone unless it's almost the deadline.
That's genious, why didn't we think of that earlier? /s
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Why do you want to be lynched so much, Tale? If you are town, then lynching you will seriously hurt us.
Maybe piano's words aren't enough? I feel like scum like would keep me alive to raise suspicion for towns to mistakes. Lynching you would hurt us too since you're a town.
Fomar0153
16396
author=tale
For town we need more numbers to outnumber scum, it's the other way around.
Removing things like confirmed town and just looking at it with everyone having equal chances:
Scenario 1: 2 town, 1 scum
A,B & S
The only way to win is if S gets lynched. So roughly a 1 in 3.
Scenario 2: 3 town, 1 scum
A,B,C & S
Again the only way to win is if S gets lynched. So roughly 1 in 4, then if they don't lynch the correct person S kills one of the two other town and wins.
Psy was giving the correct advice at that time.
author=tale
What do you mean by kill-blocked and has that been confirmed?
Well there was no kill by the mafia on the first night and Kitten said she bodyguarded Ivory, so logically the mafia attempted to kill Ivory and failed.
It's as confirmed as it can be until the end.
There is a possibility however unlikely that the Kitten & Libby withheld the kill and then Kitten claimed bodyguard to look town but all it would have taken to reveal this would be a counter claim of bodyguard. So very unlikely.
author=tale
I meant recent shinan's post into context with the post before-
"Y'all know I'm right. Just give into it." -This was after piano canceled his emily vote and piano share his words of wisdom.
Ah ok, I see what you mean.
ivoryjones
75
author=PlatinumAshesauthor=ivoryjonesThat's genious, why didn't we think of that earlier? /s
No one's lynching anyone unless it's almost the deadline.
Don't even try to be fcking cheeky with me now. I only ever mentioned me and Ozzy's intentions and not once did I say to jump on the bandwagon immediately.
It's you guys who didn't wait on piano, not us.
I'm having trouble with understanding what psy's saying but I appreciate your clarifications. Sorry I misinterpreted your stats.
They did targeted ivory? I thought the lynch was random on D1. I wasn't really around near the end of D1, I remember that I canceled my vote on psy but then distracted by PA behavior from earlier and then call it a night.
They did targeted ivory? I thought the lynch was random on D1. I wasn't really around near the end of D1, I remember that I canceled my vote on psy but then distracted by PA behavior from earlier and then call it a night.
ivoryjones
75
Tale, I'm really curious why you wanted us to lynch you earlier? I know I mentioned prior my top scum lists were you, PA & AE but I don't really want to rush D3 if possible.
ivoryjones
75
author=ivoryjonesauthor=PlatinumAshesDon't even try to be fcking cheeky with me now. I only ever mentioned me and Ozzy's intentions and not once did I say to jump on the bandwagon immediately.author=ivoryjonesThat's genious, why didn't we think of that earlier? /s
No one's lynching anyone unless it's almost the deadline.
It's you guys who didn't wait on piano, not us.
Also gonna add that you were literally throwing tantrums like a baby when we decided to lynch you over piano and now that we all actually collectively agreed to lynch piano instead you (you vs him which was D2's whole fucking dilemma ANYways), you out of all people have no right to be so snarky..!!!
If I'm confirmed vanilla town, I hope that maybe town would acknowledge that we're trying to tell you something.
I don't have a role, just a person who asks questions about what if I had one and who could be the first to take note.
If that person does, maybe they should be put into question. I used "No-Lynch" to check who really needs info. Maybe they're not ready to answer that yet.
I don't have a role, just a person who asks questions about what if I had one and who could be the first to take note.
If that person does, maybe they should be put into question. I used "No-Lynch" to check who really needs info. Maybe they're not ready to answer that yet.
