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MAFIA...IN SPACE
Posts
Koff
1013
Koff
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Closejust wondering, what happens in the event of a tie vote? i'm looking at a few possible game outcomes and can't really predict where they'll all go if i don't know how to handle ties.
Koff
1013
just wondering, what happens in the event of a tie vote? i'm looking at a few possible game outcomes and can't really predict where they'll all go if i don't know how to handle ties.
Jericho
52
in the case that everyone has voted and there is a tie, unless someone changes their vote before I call down the hammer, the vote defaults to no lynch.
Koff
1013
alright, well
by my reasoning (and please do chime in if you feel my thinking is unsound) our best hope is to abstain tonight and take our first shot at lynching tomorrow. since the mafia will kill one of our guys tonight, meaning that we'll have a smaller pool to draw from tomorrow and therefore a slightly better shot at a favorable lynch (though we'll still need to do it twice in a row to win). one day is the most we can afford to abstain from; any more than that and we'll wind up in a position where the mafia's numbers match ours. assuming everyone has the same chance of being mafia, this course of action should improve our odds from 8.33% to 13.33%.
it's late at night so i'm not very confident in my explanatory abilities so here's a spreadsheet that will hopefully clarify my point! :
"plan 9 from outer space"
you might notice that these figures don't factor in the space marine's (unreliable) power. the reason for this is mostly that i am bad at math and i'm not really sure how to work that into the calculations. however, i am fairly sure that this works out favorably for the space marine as it gives him an extra night and therefore an extra shot at nailing a villain. if anyone wants to crunch the numbers for it though, just to be sure, then be my guest.
by my reasoning (and please do chime in if you feel my thinking is unsound) our best hope is to abstain tonight and take our first shot at lynching tomorrow. since the mafia will kill one of our guys tonight, meaning that we'll have a smaller pool to draw from tomorrow and therefore a slightly better shot at a favorable lynch (though we'll still need to do it twice in a row to win). one day is the most we can afford to abstain from; any more than that and we'll wind up in a position where the mafia's numbers match ours. assuming everyone has the same chance of being mafia, this course of action should improve our odds from 8.33% to 13.33%.
it's late at night so i'm not very confident in my explanatory abilities so here's a spreadsheet that will hopefully clarify my point! :
"plan 9 from outer space"
you might notice that these figures don't factor in the space marine's (unreliable) power. the reason for this is mostly that i am bad at math and i'm not really sure how to work that into the calculations. however, i am fairly sure that this works out favorably for the space marine as it gives him an extra night and therefore an extra shot at nailing a villain. if anyone wants to crunch the numbers for it though, just to be sure, then be my guest.
Koff
1013
or we can just hop on jericho's remark about silent players and lynch tardis and ark. 13.33% is still pretty crummy odds and i'm not inclined to target ldida or space monkey, so it makes little difference to me! i'll let you guys make this call.
koff, by my understanding the space marine can only kill villains... if he doesn't get himself doing it.
but yeah, today it's important to protect us astronauts and keep us with a fighting chance of winning. i'd agree with abstention. pissed off to have lost our policenaut the opening night.
i leave you with this
but yeah, today it's important to protect us astronauts and keep us with a fighting chance of winning. i'd agree with abstention. pissed off to have lost our policenaut the opening night.
i leave you with this
Koff
1013
author=geodudei understand this and i'm not sure where i implied otherwise?
koff, by my understanding the space marine can only kill villains... if he doesn't get himself doing it.
but nonetheless i apologize for the lack of clarity, we'll chock it up to the fact that it's nearly four in the morning!
and on that note, it looks like it's bedtime for koff.
Space_Monkey
366
If I am understanding the plan 9 pic correctly then we have a 13.33% chance to win the whole thing if we abstain today and 8.33% if we lynch today and that the 13.33% is even higher because it gives us more chances for the marine to kill a scum and prevent a crew kill.
You got me convinced. Like I said before when the odds are like this only a mafia would want to shove people out the door. If your table is b.s. then I guess I got free lesson on getting fooled.
I vote abstain
You got me convinced. Like I said before when the odds are like this only a mafia would want to shove people out the door. If your table is b.s. then I guess I got free lesson on getting fooled.
I vote abstain
Jericho
52
I thought you voted abstain dogg. did you not.
because if not geodude please do it dont make me suffer any longnebujreeeeeeeeer
because if not geodude please do it dont make me suffer any longnebujreeeeeeeeer
koff's got me convinced. spreadsheets and numbers? any good science officer would be fool not to listen to such. i'd rather work to make sure non-mafiosos don't get inadvertently killed off this early in the game to hopefully get a better read on those who ARE mafia.
I vote abstain.
(sorry for not posting sooner guys, i am doing lighting design for a show and spent literally all day at the theatre doing setup and tech rehearsal the last two days ugh my aching back stupid catwalks arrrrr)
I vote abstain.
(sorry for not posting sooner guys, i am doing lighting design for a show and spent literally all day at the theatre doing setup and tech rehearsal the last two days ugh my aching back stupid catwalks arrrrr)
