OH_NO_IM_MELTING'S PROFILE

post=ChaosProductions

post=oh_no_im_melting
excel sheet

just for reference

nerd

shh

dont judge me

shhh

post=Koff
its impact isn't purely statistical, however. if the brothers are out in the open, we have someone we can trust to give frank opinions and directions without a hidden agenda. the point isn't just to bolster the odds - it's to start getting the village organized, informed, and moving in the same direction (provided at least one of the brothers can provide adequate leadership)

koff koff i have lung cancer

yeah no i agree with you i think its a good idea for the brothers to come out right now. thats why i said it was only according to the #s

i think we should do this:

post=oh_no_im_melting
if we want to identify the brothers:

everyone who ISNT one of the bros should come forth

coming forth about not being one of the bros does not implicate you in any way whether you are an innocent or a witch

that way no one can fake a bro-claim and i doubt the actual bros will reverse-fake it

wdyt

post=Solitayre

post=Natook
The witches wouldn't claim to be the brothers, there's only two of them. So when we find out who's real and who's not, then the witches would lose pretty quickly.

There's two witches, you say? That's on odd assumption to make...

Also, I am suspicious of the fact that Kitsune is very insistent that he wants some people to reveal their roles so early in the game.

identifying the brothers does p much nothing to benefit the witches. theres nothing suspicious about it

as of now identifying the brothers has little effect on the game (according to the #s anyway)

the important thing is to get everyone to participate which might necessitate cornering uncooperative players into claiming or not claiming

the only question is: should the brothers be identified now (i did not think about the possibility of it benefiting the witches earlier)

roles of X_X players being revealed does pretty much nothing for the witches

p.s. the rules are badly written

cant sleep

so here is a status doc. i dont think it will be useful in practice but well see



4 witches:
- 1 TITUBA, 2 ABIGAIL (lets assume there are two), and 1 MARY (who is an invisible witch in essence)

2 integral roles:
- COP who is at risk of witch-murder and tituba-counter and lynch-murder. cop stays hidden until:
----- sufficient amount of info is gathered && chance of witch-murder becomes too high
----- tituba is dead && angel is alive (angel covers for cop)
----- cop becomes voted up for a lynch (if lynched we lose an integral role to lynch-murder but if exposed we PROBABLY lose an integral role to witch-murder and rule out a false lynch-murder)
also note that the validity of a cop claim is contingent on 100% participation && absence of imitators
- ANGEL who is at risk of witch-murder and tituba-counter and lynch-murder. angel stays hidden until:
----- angel becomes voted up for a lynch (if lynched we lose an integral role to lynch-murder but if exposed we PROBABLY lose an integral role to witch-murder and rule out a false lynch-murder)

2 auxiliary roles:
- EZEKIEL and HERRICK who can be verified as non-witches. the validity of a ezekiel and herrick claim is contingent on 100% participation && absence of imitators

8 mundane roles:
- TOWNIES and MAYOR (mayor is a useless role unless we need to do a double kill for some reason which is unlikely)



game begins. 100% participation is not assumed. all roles are private.

day one passes
- 25% chance of lynching a witch
- 63% chance of lynching a mundane or auxiliary
- 13% chance of lynching an integral
day one suggested actions:
- dont lynch

night one passes and a townie dies and special roles perform their functions
- 78% chance of witch murdering a mundane or auxiliary
- 16% chance of witch murdering an integral
- 06% chance of angel saving an innocent
- 73% chance of angel failing to save a innocent
- 20% chance of angel saving a witch and dying
- 18% chance of cop identifying a witch
- 73% chance of cop identifying anyone else
- 08% chance of tituba countering a cop
night one suggested actions:
- cop investigates someone
- angel stays put (or protect yourself can you even do that w/e)


day one and night one is pretty straightforward. will post updates as game progresses

edit: it is useful to establish 100% participation early on so ezekiel and herrick can identify themselves. if there are no imitators, we gain 2 verified innocents. if there are imitators, we gain 2+<number of imitators> witch suspects. either way is a win. i doubt it will happen thoughjkl