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ULTIMA FANTASY MAFIA - GAME ON! [POSTGAME]
Posts
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
LockeZ
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CloseYeah, it's not great. This is exactly why I prefer to vote out the useless and inactive people on day one when we have no real info about who's scum yet. If they die, at least the game stays exciting. And scum is incentivized to post less anyway, because they give away fewer tells that way, so lynching the people who can't be arsed to say anything useful kills off the mafia a little more often than you'd expect from random distribution.
Right now, I'm reasonably positive that either YM or Tunger is mafia, and maybe both of them, just because there really aren't two other people I'm suspicious of. But Tunger was the one making a last-ditch effort to try to save Kloe at 5 minutes to midnight, so I feel extremely confident about voting for him and only kinda confident about voting for Yellow Magic right now.
#lynch TungerManU
Right now, I'm reasonably positive that either YM or Tunger is mafia, and maybe both of them, just because there really aren't two other people I'm suspicious of. But Tunger was the one making a last-ditch effort to try to save Kloe at 5 minutes to midnight, so I feel extremely confident about voting for him and only kinda confident about voting for Yellow Magic right now.
#lynch TungerManU
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
psy_wombats, do you happen to know whether the sword was randomly redistributed or just destroyed? Assuming your story is true.
Yeah fuck it.
#lynch TungerManU
I think now that there's enough bait, he'll at least start actually playing.
#lynch TungerManU
I think now that there's enough bait, he'll at least start actually playing.
psy_wombats
13315
@Odd: I forgot, again: any insights?
@Gourd I don't know, I'm having a pretty decent time. I was looking forward to arguing with IF though, he was kind of my 3rd line mafia pick :/ I also don't think voting or not voting for Kloe after the third vote can really be considered a tell though, just because I would've immediately started yelling at them for risking a hammer. Otherwise mostly agree.
@Lockez (and to some extent Ratty) Yeah Tung's not looking great, but I think he's probably okay and would be around more if he was mafia. Last game Blob started showing up more when he was converted. Or Tung's ruthless and too clever to respond to our bait, which I can at least grudgingly accept I guess.
I'm more inclined to suspect YM because of his behavior when Kloe roleclaimed. Hopefully he'll be back before too long.
And about the sword: redistributed as far as I can tell, unless IF ended up with it and then died on it. @Blob can you clarify?
@YM: Did you believe Kloe or not? And if not what was the "oh shit" for? I don't like that you didn't take any committed response to what was (at least initially) pretty frightening. If Ratty was innocent, who would your second pick be?
@Gourd I don't know, I'm having a pretty decent time. I was looking forward to arguing with IF though, he was kind of my 3rd line mafia pick :/ I also don't think voting or not voting for Kloe after the third vote can really be considered a tell though, just because I would've immediately started yelling at them for risking a hammer. Otherwise mostly agree.
@Lockez (and to some extent Ratty) Yeah Tung's not looking great, but I think he's probably okay and would be around more if he was mafia. Last game Blob started showing up more when he was converted. Or Tung's ruthless and too clever to respond to our bait, which I can at least grudgingly accept I guess.
I'm more inclined to suspect YM because of his behavior when Kloe roleclaimed. Hopefully he'll be back before too long.
And about the sword: redistributed as far as I can tell, unless IF ended up with it and then died on it. @Blob can you clarify?
@YM: Did you believe Kloe or not? And if not what was the "oh shit" for? I don't like that you didn't take any committed response to what was (at least initially) pretty frightening. If Ratty was innocent, who would your second pick be?
It's pretty easy to explain why I acted the way I did.
When I was suspected Kloe, I creates this post:
Here, I was waiting for Kloe's roleclaim before making any snap judgements.
When it came to Kloe's roleclaim, I only saw it nearly 10 minutes after blobofgoos post about the game ending in 10 minutes - so it didn't seem fair to take any action then.
As to whether I believed Kloe or not, to be honest, I didn't really know - but at that point I didn't see any reason not to believe her. I had NOT considered that the Assassin had killed the White Mage so that she could them roleclaim safely, though.
When I was suspected Kloe, I creates this post:
I can see Kloe & Ratty = Mafia being a possibility too. People are just waking up in the UK so she should be around any minute now to, like, defend herself or whatever.
What's the vote count now?
Here, I was waiting for Kloe's roleclaim before making any snap judgements.
When it came to Kloe's roleclaim, I only saw it nearly 10 minutes after blobofgoos post about the game ending in 10 minutes - so it didn't seem fair to take any action then.
As to whether I believed Kloe or not, to be honest, I didn't really know - but at that point I didn't see any reason not to believe her. I had NOT considered that the Assassin had killed the White Mage so that she could them roleclaim safely, though.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
"He would be around more if he was mafia" isn't really true. If someone is too busy for the game then they're too busy for the game. I've been in at least one game, as mafia, where a fellow mafia member made less than two posts a day for several days in a row.
if you were scum I think YM would be dead for his guess.
Wow what? Why would a scum paint a giant target on his back like that?
If Ratty were innocent, although it seems a bit hypocritical I'd have to pick Tungerman for the reasons already described.
@psy I am enjoying myself still! I was just saying that mafia would be pulling a dirty trick if they were just keeping quiet and killing the people that were talking. :P
@psy Also, psy, yelling at people for "Risking hammer" when they're about to go to sleep and they'll wake up with the day over is unbelievably silly. They have to put their vote on someone or else that leaves us with no information! Besides, if someone is convinced that someone is mafia, they have no reason to care if the person is going to be hammered.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=Yellow MagicBecause you'd never expect them to do something so foolish, and would therefore assume they didn't, and were being framed.if you were scum I think YM would be dead for his guess.Wow what? Why would a scum paint a giant target on his back like that?
But it's so simple, Ratty. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you. Are you the sort of man who would put the target onto his own back, or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the target into his own back, because he would know that only a great fool would lynch based on info he was so freely given. I'm not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose to lynch you. But you must have known I was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose to lynch Yellow Magic.
But I'm not remotely done! Because the mafia game comes from Australia, as everyone knows. And Australia is entirely peopled with criminals. And criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me. So I can clearly not choose to lynch you. And you must have suspected I would have known the game's origin, so I can clearly not choose to lynch Yellow Magic.
You've beaten CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, which means you're exceptionally strong. So, you could have put the target on your own back, trusting on your strength to save you. So I can clearly not choose to lynch you. But, you've also bested InfectionFiles which means you must have studied. And in studying, you must have learned that man is mortal so you would have put the target as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose to lynch Yellow Magic.
Aha! You've given everything away! I know who the scum is!
And I choose... (points at the game design forum) ...what in the world can that be? (switches votes secretly while everyone's back is turned)
psy_wombats
13315
@LockeZ Point taken. Although Tung claimed he was bored rather than busy.
@YM At the point you created that post, the vote count was 3 1/2 votes against Kloe. She was doomed with or without your suspicion. While I realize at that point we were too close to hammer for you to have backed up your suspicion with a vote, I believe it could also be that at that point, you realized Kloe was a sinking ship and couldn't really defend her. Then you immediately call Ratty and Kloe for mafia so you're justified when Kloe flips scum. This enables you to immediately go after Ratty as the day opens, hopefully drowning out all other voices. If you and Kloe are scumteam, that was a pretty clever play to hopefully at least salvage a daykill out of a dying teammate.
Whether you would've been killed by scum for that -- I don't think it's possible to reason about it in retrospect, actually. Similar to how Kloe naming Lockez in her last post is worthless to analyze. If scum knows how an action is going to be analyzed then it's just 50/50 how to actually interpret it if it's an odd/even number of layers deep.
And now that you bring that up again, I'm wary of a situation where mafia knows Cave had a job and we don't -- they could claim with impunity.
@Gourd Sorry about that, that just made me nervous when Ratty showed up immediately after. I'd normally hold that vote against you because it wasn't necessary to kill Kloe and came so late after your initial suspicions, but that's what triggered me last game about you and it was totally off. So I won't screw that up again. Also for the same reason I'm not holding YM's lack of a vote against him.
And if we had hammered Kloe we wouldn't have gotten to watch her pretend to be white mage, so... there's that.
@YM At the point you created that post, the vote count was 3 1/2 votes against Kloe. She was doomed with or without your suspicion. While I realize at that point we were too close to hammer for you to have backed up your suspicion with a vote, I believe it could also be that at that point, you realized Kloe was a sinking ship and couldn't really defend her. Then you immediately call Ratty and Kloe for mafia so you're justified when Kloe flips scum. This enables you to immediately go after Ratty as the day opens, hopefully drowning out all other voices. If you and Kloe are scumteam, that was a pretty clever play to hopefully at least salvage a daykill out of a dying teammate.
Whether you would've been killed by scum for that -- I don't think it's possible to reason about it in retrospect, actually. Similar to how Kloe naming Lockez in her last post is worthless to analyze. If scum knows how an action is going to be analyzed then it's just 50/50 how to actually interpret it if it's an odd/even number of layers deep.
And now that you bring that up again, I'm wary of a situation where mafia knows Cave had a job and we don't -- they could claim with impunity.
@Gourd Sorry about that, that just made me nervous when Ratty showed up immediately after. I'd normally hold that vote against you because it wasn't necessary to kill Kloe and came so late after your initial suspicions, but that's what triggered me last game about you and it was totally off. So I won't screw that up again. Also for the same reason I'm not holding YM's lack of a vote against him.
And if we had hammered Kloe we wouldn't have gotten to watch her pretend to be white mage, so... there's that.
psy_wombats
13315
Ah dammit I got beat with a better theory re: targeting. At least I think that's what that is? shepherds can't parse Australian logic
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
They were both terrible theories. I spent the last few years on the forums building up an immunity to logic.
@psy Your theory about YM is pretty much what I was positing earlier, yeah! :D Naming two suspects, having one turn up scum and then killing the other based on this is a common scum strategy.
Even though it's really not logicaL at all - just because you were right about one means nothing about the other. What's worse, and what I think makes this theory more likely, is that YM never gave much of a reason why he thought that ratty + Kloe was a possibility. Kloe was dying and this was a perfect opportunity for him. So he just said she was acting weird, and way before the other post. At the very least, everyone else was pointing to a post or two she had made that caused them to feel this way, but not YM.
Even though it's really not logicaL at all - just because you were right about one means nothing about the other. What's worse, and what I think makes this theory more likely, is that YM never gave much of a reason why he thought that ratty + Kloe was a possibility. Kloe was dying and this was a perfect opportunity for him. So he just said she was acting weird, and way before the other post. At the very least, everyone else was pointing to a post or two she had made that caused them to feel this way, but not YM.
To clarify, "so he just said she was acting weird, and way before the other post." is referring to YM saying this:
a long time before he said this:
author=Yellow Magic
Unfortunately I still don't have the time to make a more in depth post (hopefully later today) but psy, isn't this the point where you start using, like, statistics and stuff?
Kloe is definitely behaving quite unusually, but it's worth pointing out that none of us were really that useful on Day 1...there wasn't much to be "useful" with.
a long time before he said this:
I can see Kloe & Ratty = Mafia being a possibility too. People are just waking up in the UK so she should be around any minute now to, like, defend herself or whatever.
What's the vote count now?
author=LockeZauthor=Yellow MagicBecause you'd never expect them to do something so foolish, and would therefore assume they didn't, and were being framed.if you were scum I think YM would be dead for his guess.Wow what? Why would a scum paint a giant target on his back like that?
But it's so simple, Ratty. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you. Are you the sort of man who would put the target onto his own back, or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the target into his own back, because he would know that only a great fool would lynch based on info he was so freely given. I'm not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose to lynch you. But you must have known I was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose to lynch Yellow Magic.
But I'm not remotely done! Because the mafia game comes from Australia, as everyone knows. And Australia is entirely peopled with criminals. And criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me. So I can clearly not choose to lynch you. And you must have suspected I would have known the game's origin, so I can clearly not choose to lynch Yellow Magic.
You've beaten CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, which means you're exceptionally strong. So, you could have put the target on your own back, trusting on your strength to save you. So I can clearly not choose to lynch you. But, you've also bested InfectionFiles which means you must have studied. And in studying, you must have learned that man is mortal so you would have put the target as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose to lynch Yellow Magic.
Aha! You've given everything away! I know who the scum is!
And I choose... (points at the game design forum) ...what in the world can that be? (switches votes secretly while everyone's back is turned)
... What?
