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[MAFIA] PRISONER'S DILEMMA. GAME OVER
Posts
Fomar0153
16396
Fomar0153
View playlists
Closeauthor=Fomar0153
Night 1: 08:01 PM - 05:24 PM
Night 2: 08:39 PM - 11:37 PM
Night 3: 12:09 AM - 02:24 AM
Night 3 is the one of interest, I analaysed the last 5 pages of mine, demonlord5000's and platinunashes posts. This is platinumashes's activity:
He would have had to stay up over three hours later than any of his latest activity in order to submit his night kill. Additionally kittenfood revealed her full role at 10:45 my time, nearly two hours later than any of his latest activity. This is why I conclude that platinumashes is confirmed town.
I'll put the rest of the data behind a hide tag as all it shows is that both myself and demonlord have been around during all the night phases. I also did three pages of cave dog analysis before deciding that it was probably the case that the final night action on the first night came in after he went to bed.
My data:
demonlord5000's data:
cave dog's data:
Fomar0153
16396
author=Fomar0153
We still have plenty of time, I'm leaning more to Shinan was a deliberately calculated play.
People who looked more scummy following a Shinan kill:
AlaskanEmily, tale, myself
Everyone else who aren't confirmed town:
oddrabbit, PlatinumAshes, demonlord
Assuming killing Shinan was a calculated move, I can't see it allowing a scum PlatinumAshes to win, if they some how survive to the final three they'd be lynched based on everything that's happened so far. It's unlikely that future night kills will be sub-optimal otherwise scum is pretty much guarenteed to lose. If we were lynching randomly then by not lynching a confirmed town they slashed their odds of winning to 1 in 3.
Anyway the two people who have probably benefitted were demonlord who I felt was town and oddrabbit who I was neutral on.
Anyone else got any new thoughts now we've had more time?
Originally posted:
https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24686/?post=888074#post888074
@demon
Everything fits for me now, you beneffited massively from the Shinan night kill, and you had no choice with kitten as there was a big chance you'd be found out.
Ah,Fomar, quick question. What timezone is that?
Also, did you include the idea of lurking in your calculations, or just posting? I guess it'd be strange for PA to not post if something as important as Kittenfood's role came up, but...
I guess I'm just at an impasse, I don't know how to continue.
Also, did you include the idea of lurking in your calculations, or just posting? I guess it'd be strange for PA to not post if something as important as Kittenfood's role came up, but...
I guess I'm just at an impasse, I don't know how to continue.
Fomar0153
16396
GMT+1
I did think about lurking, but the hours required that PA would have had to lurk would have been considerable and his activity has been really consistent between 3pm and 9pm. I imagine he just keeps a good sleep scheldule.
I did think about lurking, but the hours required that PA would have had to lurk would have been considerable and his activity has been really consistent between 3pm and 9pm. I imagine he just keeps a good sleep scheldule.
I guess I just personally feel that judging people off their post times in reference to others isn't necessarily the best way of thinking, but since I'm not really contributing either way, it's whatever, really.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
author=Fomar0153author=Fomar0153Night 3 is the one of interest, I analaysed the last 5 pages of mine, demonlord5000's and platinunashes posts. This is platinumashes's activity:
Night 1: 08:01 PM - 05:24 PM
Night 2: 08:39 PM - 11:37 PM
Night 3: 12:09 AM - 02:24 AM
He would have had to stay up over three hours later than any of his latest activity in order to submit his night kill. Additionally kittenfood revealed her full role at 10:45 my time, nearly two hours later than any of his latest activity. This is why I conclude that platinumashes is confirmed town.
I'll put the rest of the data behind a hide tag as all it shows is that both myself and demonlord have been around during all the night phases. I also did three pages of cave dog analysis before deciding that it was probably the case that the final night action on the first night came in after he went to bed.
My data:
demonlord5000's data:
cave dog's data:
What the hell
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
You are on another level dude
Fomar0153
16396
author=PlatinumAshes
You are on another level dude
Thank you, I think. Working out who the last scum is wasn't really working so I tried the other way to see if I could work out anymore town.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Yes I live in Holland and that's the +1 time zone. I went to sleep at 10 PM or so IIRC.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
This is an unholy abomination of metagaming and I kind of dig it.
Fomar0153
16396
Well being as it's my first game I can't metagame based on empirical evidence like Ivory can.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Did you analyse tale too?
Fomar0153
16396
No just the people that I said, given Kitten investigated him I took him as 100% confirmed town like Ozzy and Ivory.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Oh I missed that. So who are we down to now?
PA
Demonlord
Fomar
Odd (sort of. He did claim)
Anyone else not confirmed?
PA
Demonlord
Fomar
Odd (sort of. He did claim)
Anyone else not confirmed?
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Fomar if you are scum you are a damned maniak to rule me out like this. I can't believe that you would do that.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Which basically leaves me with no one to suspect but Demonlord or maybe Odd.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
THEIR CURSED CHAMPION FALLS
#lynch Demonlord
#lynch Demonlord
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
This Night Phase also looks consistent with Demonlord posting pattern.
PlatinumAshes
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
0
Fomar right now
ivoryjones
75
I am sort of leaning last scum being a veteran, including odd.
And what do you mean by this?
author=PlatinumAshes
This Night Phase also looks consistent with Demonlord posting pattern.
And what do you mean by this?
