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[MAFIA] SPY VS. MAFIA II DAY 3
Posts
Cap_H
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CloseNot a very surprising result. Also, I got my item sod 2. Why is that important? I don't think it tells you anything about my alignment.
Jero, I tend to forget details, when getting enthralled by the game. There's still a possibility of you being scum and not a double agent. As that would make both teams of the same size. It would be a diversion from the previous game I find interesting, but little pro-scum. It would balance small number of wolves in a fresh fashion too.
However, I'm more inclined to believe that Piano's design philosophy more likely avoided this change especially when experimenting with items. With Milk dead, 4 players 90% confirmed, me knowing my alignment and Cave solving, Psy is the only option I got left.
#lynch psy_wombats
Jero, I tend to forget details, when getting enthralled by the game. There's still a possibility of you being scum and not a double agent. As that would make both teams of the same size. It would be a diversion from the previous game I find interesting, but little pro-scum. It would balance small number of wolves in a fresh fashion too.
However, I'm more inclined to believe that Piano's design philosophy more likely avoided this change especially when experimenting with items. With Milk dead, 4 players 90% confirmed, me knowing my alignment and Cave solving, Psy is the only option I got left.
#lynch psy_wombats
psy_wombats
13315
Yeah you can do that, presumably so scum can last-minute scramble the votes with it without outing themselves. The description of the item does not include how to actually use it, when I asked piano he presented both options. I didn't mention it so as to not give scum the idea, if they thought it was impossible to use anonymously.
Cap did you start with your cake or get it later?
Cap did you start with your cake or get it later?
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
I assume that was Cap_H based on the timing, which pretty much seals my vote if so.
#lynch psy_wombats
Convenient that it didn't play a song about Oddrabbit, Jeroen, or one of the people who had already been trumpeted from the heavens. Hitting Cap or Psy would have been ideal, though, of course, at least for me.
#lynch psy_wombats
Convenient that it didn't play a song about Oddrabbit, Jeroen, or one of the people who had already been trumpeted from the heavens. Hitting Cap or Psy would have been ideal, though, of course, at least for me.
Fomar0153
16396
author=Jeroen_Sol
huh wait you can do that?
Nothing in the PM said about how to use it. I just followed Psy's lead.
author=psy_wombats
Yeah you can do that, presumably so scum can last-minute scramble the votes with it without outing themselves. The description of the item does not include how to actually use it, when I asked piano he presented both options. I didn't mention it so as to not give scum the idea, if they thought it was impossible to use anonymously.
Cap did you start with your cake or get it later?
Got it at the start of day 2.
psy_wombats
13315
Okay cool. I have a meeting in two minutes but will be back in an hour with a full write up
AlaskanEmily
561
I don't want to go against 90% chances without a really good reason, and I think the points against Psy look more like being a little clumsy than being scum.
So...I guess...
#lynch Cave?
LockeZ is like 99% town to me now, it would be weird for scum to list observations like he did totally unsolicited in the first place, and then he got saxophone'd. I kind of don't feel great about Cap, but I guess it's pretty townie to have claimed the protective item so early.
I also still don't think that Psy would have hit the trumpet so early if he was scum. At this point in the game I think that blowing the tuba is pretty neutral since it's so late, holding on to it doesn't matter too much.
I'm sadly kind of doing a process of elimination, although at this point it's not all that unlikely that the trombone has lied once. If I had to guess someone who it said was town...I mean, I haven't really thought much about Fomar in a while, I would probably scrutinize his posts next.
Alternatively we could just lynch Jeroen, because if we are so bad at this that we can't stop scum from winning we know we can stop Jeroen from winning. Because that's how games is work.
Also I won't be around again until pretty late tonight, I'm traveling.
So...I guess...
#lynch Cave?
LockeZ is like 99% town to me now, it would be weird for scum to list observations like he did totally unsolicited in the first place, and then he got saxophone'd. I kind of don't feel great about Cap, but I guess it's pretty townie to have claimed the protective item so early.
I also still don't think that Psy would have hit the trumpet so early if he was scum. At this point in the game I think that blowing the tuba is pretty neutral since it's so late, holding on to it doesn't matter too much.
I'm sadly kind of doing a process of elimination, although at this point it's not all that unlikely that the trombone has lied once. If I had to guess someone who it said was town...I mean, I haven't really thought much about Fomar in a while, I would probably scrutinize his posts next.
Alternatively we could just lynch Jeroen, because if we are so bad at this that we can't stop scum from winning we know we can stop Jeroen from winning. Because that's how games is work.
That's a joke I don't really want to do that, no matter how funny it would be
Also I won't be around again until pretty late tonight, I'm traveling.
Fomar0153
16396
Doubting 1 90% chance feels foolish but now we've had three the odds of one of us three getting a false read is 27.1%.
Having said that I feel it would be foolish to target a 90% chance town person when we have better candidates.
Cap why did you use the item privately?
Having said that I feel it would be foolish to target a 90% chance town person when we have better candidates.
Cap why did you use the item privately?
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
author=AlaskanEmily
I also still don't think that Psy would have hit the trumpet so early if he was scum. At this point in the game I think that blowing the tuba is pretty neutral since it's so late, holding on to it doesn't matter too much.
I disagree. The undefined brass instrument is safest to use for scum when everything in thenm game is still open.
I trust Cap a bit more now, since he'd habe died just now if he accidentally confirmed Psy or something. No idea why he would use it in private though.
Hm, I guess my reads on Cave and Psy are little flimsy right now. I'm admitting that the former is partially a meta read. Cave as scum does weird shit, but here it looks like a proper investigative activity beneath it. He's making some obviously weird a faulty reads based more extravagant than holding water too. I think these differ from reads he makes as scum, which are more fact oriented and down to ground. Also, between these reads he evaluates and questions people. That put together makes him look rather good here.
Scumreading psy is little more difficult. He's been towny for the majority of the game. He made some good original reads and if you check my d1 list, he became my top town for them. The scummy stuff I can think of is mostly his synchronized push on Odd. I think it's always easier to spot something like that with extra information. The way he presents it reeks of it slightly. I can imagine town psy stretching it and figuring such a thing on his own, but given it was him and Jero basing their case off of that, It's the single most likely slip in perspective of his.
Scumreading psy is little more difficult. He's been towny for the majority of the game. He made some good original reads and if you check my d1 list, he became my top town for them. The scummy stuff I can think of is mostly his synchronized push on Odd. I think it's always easier to spot something like that with extra information. The way he presents it reeks of it slightly. I can imagine town psy stretching it and figuring such a thing on his own, but given it was him and Jero basing their case off of that, It's the single most likely slip in perspective of his.
author=Fomar0153
Doubting 1 90% chance feels foolish but now we've had three the odds of one of us three getting a false read is 27.1%.
Having said that I feel it would be foolish to target a 90% chance town person when we have better candidates.
Cap why did you use the item privately?
Do you mean the tuba? It wasn't on purpose. I only sent an instruction to use it and nothing else.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Can confirm I wasn't working with anyone on that push. I wasn't planning on pushing Odd originally, but when the opportunity arose to force him to claim I took it.
Psy can be scum using that post of Odd's I pointed out in scum chat, but if so, he didn't consult me.
Psy can be scum using that post of Odd's I pointed out in scum chat, but if so, he didn't consult me.
psy_wombats
13315
actually, @cap: like, literally the start of day2, or partway through it?
That the reads have all turned up town make it far more likely that that we've gotten good reads. bayesian vs frequentist etc
author=Fomar0153
Doubting 1 90% chance feels foolish but now we've had three the odds of one of us three getting a false read is 27.1%.
That the reads have all turned up town make it far more likely that that we've gotten good reads. bayesian vs frequentist etc
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
I don't really see a reason for scum Psy to out Odd, honestly. Why not just NK him without drawing the attention of any potentially protective items?
author=Jeroen_Sol
I don't really see a reason for scum Psy to out Odd, honestly. Why not just NK him without drawing the attention of any potentially protective items?
Now, this is a good point. The only thing I can come is that maybe he wanted Odd to be confirmed before killing him? That would be a crude underestimation of items.
Literally the start of day 2. 2 minutes in to be even more exact.
AlaskanEmily
561
author=Jeroen_Solauthor=AlaskanEmilyI disagree. The undefined brass instrument is safest to use for scum when everything in thenm game is still open.
I also still don't think that Psy would have hit the trumpet so early if he was scum. At this point in the game I think that blowing the tuba is pretty neutral since it's so late, holding on to it doesn't matter too much.
My thinking is that scum wouldn't want it to keep coming back so many times. They would want the total number of times it appears to be low, since every time it comes back there is a chance that they will get targeted.
I do see what you're saying. Although we're actually at a lower scum-to-town ratio right now than when we started, aren't we?
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
We are, but confirming a town D1 means nothing, while confirming a town when the game is almost done can mean everything.
