ALASKANEMILY'S PROFILE

author=Jeroen_Sol
No, oracle always has a target. If you read the role, it says "the most recent target" will have their role revealed. I'm sure that's also why N0 existed and the target got rng'd if not submitted. It's probably worded like that to force the oracle to not mitigate their risk by not targetting anyone. But it doesn't state the oracle can't self-target, so yay loopholes.

Interesting, I wasn't thinking that a target would be chosen at random in that case. Also I already forgot that N0 happened.

author=Lizardman_Princess

author=Fomar0153
...math lacking any proof, which is worse than no math at all...

What are you doing to get this math?

Is that assuming a 50/50 chance of a lynch having already happened when the cop uses their ability?

So the most obvious, simplest explanation here is that the setup is clearly a total fake and the real roles are closed, and Fomar is a jester.

author=Cap_H
tbh scumar I have no idea what you're doing. Right now, i could get behind lynch of every single person who has posted.

Then why aren't you doing it? Only scum nolynches D1!

author=psy_wombats
anyone thought about if follow-the-cop would work? My feeling is "no" given that there has to be some probability garbage applied to cop results, but I'm tempted to write a simulator to check it. "Break a setup" is on my bucket list and everything has been closed since forever.

I think follow the cop is a pretty poor idea with a lawyer and a miller, that gives it a 20% chance to be wrong.

I guess it does work out that (assuming you don't care if the miller dies) the false-positive scum cop results aren't so bad. There is no repeatable false positive for finding scum. We just can't fully trust town cop results until the laywer is lynched.

It seems like follow-the-cop could only really work if we get extremely lucky and lose the lawyer and the miller first thing, AND keep the doctor, AND the cop doesn't get lynched (or come so close to lynch that they need to claim) or get NK'ed before they can claim so that the doctor knows to save them. we will still need to properly play the game.

I already tried to trick...I mean convince some of my friends to play, but the excuse that they all decided to repeat back to me was that it would take too much time.

Ohai!

I mean make no mistake, scum lost fair and square. We did have a serious chance, and any of my concerns about MP didn't even come up.