TRIHAN'S PROFILE

Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
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Sidhe Quest
When everything goes wrong, it's up to our heroes to go and do a bunch of other stuff!

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[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

#lynch AtiyaTheSeeker

Putting my vote on Atiya just now because I'm 99% sure Lycan would have been told they were, so saying you think you might be one is really suspicious.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

psy, on the plus side the sorcerer doesn't know who the wolves are, so their day vote is effectively as helpful to us as a town one when we don't know who is scum and who isn't for sure. They're obviously going to err towards voting for people who aren't widely considered to be scum, which will be something to watch for. I can see why you lowered my town percentage as a result of realising that.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

I didn't realise how little time was left in the day. I'd better get my vote in soon.

Atiya, I second psy's question: what makes you "pretty sure" you're a lycan? I didn't think it was a secret role.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

Right, okay. Engaged my brain before opening my mouth this time. My original worst-case scenario was more-or-less correct, assuming our night losses are confirmed players. Sorry for the spam, everyone; I wish I could delete or edit this mess and start over.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

Wait, shit. I'm not factoring in that the confirmed town might die during those nights. Fucking hell, I suck at this game. Just lynch me. XD

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

Also yeah, that day 4 couldn't actually happen because we can't mislynch on day 4 due to 3 town being confirmed, so I don't think it's possible for scum to win even if we don't lynch any of them until the MYLO day, which is even better. The only way we can lose is if one of the confirmed town players are lying and turn out to be scum. Right?

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

"Anyways. if we have a scenario in which we have five confirmed town, and we hit one scum, the game is pretty much solved, right?"

I'm assuming we have 2 scum since 10 players with 1 scum would be horrendously unfair, so taking the worst-case scenario where every lynch we make hits town:

Day 2: 9 players: 7 town, 2 scum. Lynch 1 town
Night 2: scum kill a town
Day 3: 7 players: 5 town, 2 scum. Lynch 1 town
Night 3: scum kill a town
Day 4: 5 players: 3 town, 2 scum. Lynch 1 town

Scum win

So we'd have to mislynch three times to lose, which is a pretty good position to be in considering how many townies we know are safe. If we take Jeroen, Dudesoft and odd out of the equation we have 4 town and 2 scum; the odds of hitting 3 town in that list are astronomically low.

So technically someone doesn't *have* to die today, but a second nolynch wouldn't be a good idea as we're just letting scum narrow the gap for free at that point.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

Okay, so Fomar was the seer. It was all but confirmed anyway, but a huge blow to lose him this early.

The possibilities as I see it, given last night's events, are:

1. We don't have a bodyguard.
2. We have a bodyguard, they didn't believe Fomar's roleclaim, and protected someone else.
3. We have a bodyguard, they believed Fomar's roleclaim but figured scum would go for someone else assuming scum would think Fomar would be protected, and protected someone else.
4. We have a bodyguard, and whether they believed Fomar or not they failed to submit a night action.

Can anyone else think of another scenario that accounts for Fomar dying unprotected given his all-but-confirmed status at EOD?

One thing's for sure; the nolynch yesterday was pretty much the only one we could safely get away with. Someone *has* to die today, and we need to be united to avoid a nolynch due to unsufficient votes for a majority, since we now know plurality doesn't matter.

I have no idea why psy is defending me so much; I appreciate that he reads me as town, obviously, but I don't think I've been acting so any moreso than any other player to the point where I would have warranted specific defending when there was heat on me yesterday. I don't get a scummy read from psy at the moment, but it's definitely a viable tactic to focus on someone else's towniness to mask your own scumread, so I've got an eye on him.

psy, interesting that you refer to "Jeroen's voting bloc"; do you think Dudesoft is just following whatever Jeroen says without making his own calls? I don't think that's particularly fair to Dudesoft considering he did explain his votes yesterday. Sure, he talked about backing up his mason brother, but he had good reasons for doing so.

I agree with Atiya that Emily's psy vote came kind of out of left field, though I'm not gonna lie I'm just as weirded out by his protectiveness of me. :P

I think before I vote I'm going to read back on Fomar's posts, there might be something there.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

Wait, no. Going after confirmed town is exactly what they'd want to do. Jesus christ that all-nighter has frazzled my brain more than I thought. Ignore me.

[MAFIA] Is this Werewolf?

author=psy_wombats
Also no-kill wouldn't be bad today (would prefer it to Trihan dying). We have an even number of players, a seer in the open, and presumably a bodyguard, soo


The problem is there's no real incentive for the wolves to go after someone who's confirmed town so if we do have a bodyguard they're going to have to be lucky to hit the same target. You'd think the seer would be the prime one but the possibility of a bodyguard and the likelihood that they'd protect the seer would make that a risk of a whiffed night for scum and given how many townies are already out there they can't really afford to do that.