[MAFIA] SIMPLE MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE

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Hi, jailer here. Die, Gourd #lynch Gourd_Clae



Jailing history:
night 1 - Jero - I knew mafia had a roleblocker so I thought they'd roleblock cap because they'd be afraid of doc. Was wrong. Sorry cap. At least Jero is 50% clear
night 2 - Gourd - I'm assuming he's scum because he's not town-y, scum wouldn't try to nc him

Don't really have much idea who Gourd's partner is though. I'm trying to think if I should call who I target this night so that they can be cleared tomorrow if I'm dead, or if last scum would just not submit nightkill in order to implicate them.

I realize there's a small chance scum didn't submit anything, because this is still almost lylo. I don't think this is the case, but would mean to continue the game we'd have to guess (and jail) the scum that submits nk tonight.
#cancel

@Jero: fair point yeah, I'm hoping this should be open and shut.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
So the Gourd wagon D1 was a town effort. The fact that scum wasn't even considering the wagon makes me inclined to vote Gourd today.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Holy ninja.

I guess that must mean that Gourd is the goon and his partner is the roleblocker? Otherwise I don't see how jailing one of two scum could prevent nightkill.

CAVE, what happens when jailer and roleblocker target each other simultaneously?
That's my guess anyway. If they can nk/roleblock simultaneously then I'd guess Gourd's partner is either inactive (IF) or has more heat on them (?) and therefore more likely to be jailed. Scum (and me) have known that there was a jailkeeper since Cap let it slip on day 1 so they've probably been strategic about it.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
I'll just take Psy's claim at face value unless someone counterclaims. It would be pretty fucking ballsy to lie about.

Hmm. The Gourd voters on day 1 were Jeroen, Ebeth and Isrieri. So, not all of them have been confirmed as town.

Psy, it sounds like you jailed Gourd because you thought he was scum, not because you thought he'd be a target. Did you voice this earlier? Jeroen's chart is claiming you were neutral about him. If people (who are still alive) other than Jeroen were vocal about suspecting Gourd, then your reasoning makes sense.

Also I just noticed that Jeroen's chart claims that everybody thinks he's town. Rofl. Jeroen, egotistical much?
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Maybe just a little ;-) I actually thought I wouldn't survive the night because everyone seemed to lean town on me. But let me go and update the chart.
I've jailed scumhunting both times because I thought I'd be the one nightkilled -- day 1 mostly because I thought scum would roleblock Cap rather than kill him when there was jailer/doc around.

Gourd was the most scummy of the original day 1 train because only survivor is Jero and I already jailed him day1, so 50% he's clear. Hypothesis was that if none of those voters were scum, Gourd was.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
Well that's better than any of my theories, which can be mostly summarized as "Uh" and "Hrm"

If Gourd is not scum then Jeroen is my next bet, just because he's been pushing against Gourd for the whole game. I don't actually think Jeroen is the second most likely person to be scum right now, though. I just think he would become the most likely if we could somehow find out that Gourd is town. And since we probably won't get another day if we lynch wrong, I guess that's not really... actionable.

By the same token, if we lynch Gourd and he turns out to be scum, that'll be a good enough reason for me to trust Jeroen. If they were both scum, that would have been some very early and unnecessary bussing of his partner. There was a real chance that Gourd might've gotten lynched on day one and Jeroen basically spearheaded it. Which would've been crazy, since on day 1 scum only knew their own roles, so they didn't know if there was a cop or not.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
@LockeZ: Yeah I'm not so sure about Jero now, I think he's actually the likeliest Gourd partner. Like this cancel struck me as bogus: https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/23154/?post=825961#post825961 -- start a train, cancel after Isrieri and Ebeth get on the train. So definitely could be d1 bussing that he had to hastily abort. I also found his Ebeth vote yesterday pretty dubious, I really didn't think that's what she was after, but I guess you said that sounded feasible?

I'll review tomorrow and try to review in context but gourd has seemed pretty isolated, no partner stuff except d1 cancel. demonlord's out because his only possible scum partner would be Jero really. I guess IF is the other candidate just because he conveniently showed up right to hammer, but he's basically been on Ebeth since day 1 as well and I'm still not sure he's posted enough to get a handle on. @IF: best wishes to your grandfather
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
If I were d1 bussing I would have stuck to my guns. I've successfully done it before. I just lost confidence in the train when the majority of people seemed to heavily disagree with me.

Reading over IF's posts, he seems like the most likely Gourd partner to me. IF has been pretty vocal about his townlean on Gourd, while also saying he didn't want to lynch Gourd to keep Gourd's post count down. (?)

author=InfectionFiles
Sorry everyone. My grandpa has been in the hospital. I know, no excuses for mafia but it's been hectic.

I've been catching up (wasn't too hard since it seems I wasn't the only one!) I was expecting to have to read a book to catch up.

So my top two suspicions are Ebeth(still) and like Gourd, I'm looking at Psy. Mainly because his plays have been off from what I know of him as a townie. Voting LockeZ because LockeZ voted for him is very un-psy. But that's just sorta meta suspicion.
Ebeth because I just haven't lost the feeling on her. And she's constantly on me, which I always feel is a little scummy. But I don't want to be a broken record on her because I could be completely wrong and suffering from the same thing that rubs me the wrong one.

I'm going to re-read some people and look back. But I've been pretty indifferent to demonlord, pretty sure he's just town. Jero isn't getting me anywhere and I may just be looking at him SINCE he is HELPFUL. which isn't a good move.

And then, Gourd and LockeZ seem to being playing their usual selves. So I'll have a hard time spotting anything weird there.

So for now I'm going to vote:

#lynch Ebeth

This post feels like a coordinated Gourd/IF effort to throw shade on Psy in hopes of setting up his lynch today after the Ebeth lynch.

Especially considering this post by Gourd at the start of this day phase.
author=Gourd_Clae
author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
Isrieri - 5 : Ebeth, LockeZ, demonlord, Cap_H, Gourd_Clae, Ebeth, LockeZ, psy_wombats
author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
Final Votecount
Ebeth - 4: Psy_Wombats, Jeroen, demonlord, InfectionFiles

The only person that's the same on these two lists is psy which is... interesting. Although, if I'm going to level with you, I probably would also be on both lists if IF hadn't hammered ebeth.
So it looks like there is a amjor chance gourd is scum now. Gourd/IF sounds like the most feasible team for me as well. I mentioned before I thought that defense was suspicious, but didn't have any real reason to go after them when other people seemed scummier at the time.

As for the possible Gourd/Jero, it seems unlikelier than the other team.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
I said earlier that I feel like either Gourd or Jeroen is scum, but not both, and I still feel like that's the case. I'm probably going to fall asleep before Gourd wakes up to make his case, but at this point I'm leaning toward voting for him. It's not guaranteed but it's got the best shot.

I didn't really think Gourd was suspicious personally, and demonlord also said he trusted him, but Psy's logic makes a lot of sense: Gourd was the only person left who had gotten multiple votes on them, so he would be a pretty weird choice for scum to nightkill. They could've targetted Jeroen who supposedly had an entire column of green squares (lol), or Demonlord whom half the players are trusting unquestioningly because he misunderstood the rules.

...I mean, unless the scum team is Jeroen + Demonlord. Then they obviously couldn't have done that.

So I guess if Gourd isn't scum, then I think the scum team is probably Jeroen + Demonlord?

I'm worried we're not gonna get a lot of other info today since everyone is just talking about Psy's roleclaim and the likelihood of his theory. I guess we only have to find one scum today, but in case we survive the night I'd like to hear who people think we should lynch tomorrow too.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
As I said, I think the most likely scumteam is Gourd+IF. So if we lynch Gourd and he's scum, I think we should kill IF tomorrow.

If we lynch Gourd and he's not scum, then we've probably lost and there is no tomorrow. But if there is, I guess I still trust IF the least. I feel better about Locke today, so that really only leaves demonlord. I haven't suspected him since that screw-up, but I don't really have any other reason to trust him.

@Psy, why do you think I would be the only possible scum partner for demonlord?
I think we do need clarification from CAVE on what happens if roleblocker nk/blocks the jailer, and the jailer targets the roleblocker.

Either way though, we still do have to kill scum today. Because I've blown my cover, if by some miracle Gourd isn't scum, I'll be roleblocked tonight and that's game. I'm pretty sure that's Gourd though and I won't vote for anyone else today (unless the other scum would like to counterclaim me, in which case, by all means try it)

But if we nail Gourd, and either he's the roleblocker or I can cancel the roleblocker, we essentially have two shots. I'll announce who I target, and if I'm dead the next day, they'll be vindicated. If I'm still alive, we kill that person. There's no guarantee they're scum, obviously, but we'll have another shot to jail the real scum on the next night.

@Jero: re:IF that makes some sense. If you're town then I don't doubt you were last night's nk target. As for demonlord, there's only one case I don't buy that his screwup was legitimate, and that would be if you and him were coordinating to immediately clear him. By canceling right away you made the matter look pretty resolved.

Also LockeZ seems fine to me now as well.
That's odd I wasn't informed of being jailed. I'd figure that I would be but I guess not.

I can't say I follow psy's logic though. Why would jailing me prevent a nk if I was mafia?
Since we shold be spending as little time as possible on this (because this is wrong) I'm revealing now that I'm a vanilla townie.

psy you should be concluding that I'm town if you jailed me. You must have protected me from the nk.
I'm not sure why you would expect to be notified. And jailkeeper applies a simultaneous roleblock/doctor effect.
Does the nightkill actually count as a role? I'm curious because the backup6 site says that mafia goon is the equivalent of vanilla town, and that the night kill itself is a desperate thing. Might be good to get clarification on this too since I decided to check after gourd brought it up.

If the kill counts as a role, then I'm killing gourd tonight. If it doesn't, then it may be a good idea to look at other options just in case.