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[MAFIA] THE RESISTANCE: AVALON MAFIA - GAME ON
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Yellow Magic
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author=Yellow Magic
I say Muffle is Mafia. What do you think Big Oz?
Problem is, as much as I don't want to metagame, I do make it subconsciously, until now Muffle just seems like her usual self. I'm gonna read back on her posts and see if I can approach from a more objective point of view. Then again, I have been in her position before, where what I want to say has actually been said and I don't want to repeat it. Then again, giving her opinion regardless of what has already been said shouldn't worry her unless she is afraid of looking like she's going with someone else's assumptions without much thought.
Also, she is going along with the Demonlord lynch and that somehow flew under my radar, probably because it's hidden in a wall of text. I'm starting to suspect her more now that you've asked me this YM.
psy_wombats
re: demonlord: if you check his reaction at the beginning of the game to PA, it's a town perspective. "Great, the new guy rolled Merlin, outed themselves, and lost the game." Which is understandable because it's basically what I'm afraid of: noob-Merlin decides to post riddles or drops perfect scumreads or something and loses the game.
But Ozzy's thinking about it from the other direction, that Merlin will be scumhunting captain, which is about the last thing I see happening, and it only makes sense to think that way if you're paranoid scum panicking because someone out there that has your ID. Merlin is not a threat to scum -- it's the other way around.
@piano: Merlin is guaranteed. See above re: ozzy.
demonlord5000
I don't know platinum as well as you all, but that looks suspiciously like throwing the game to me. Fake claiming day 1 does absolutely nothing, and to go as far as lynch self, and that weird rng weirdness when we were talking about not doing that and going with something simple...
In this game, the only time a self lynch would help anyone is the assassin, but scum would have no leads day 1....
I'm very very suspicious that this is game throwing.
This is the immediate post after PA's fakeclaim. Far from freaking out, demonlord is immediately calling it out. His next post is no more concerned. I suppose in the right tone, it could be considered town freaking out about autolosing the game in the first five minutes, but his declaration of the game being dead doesn't come until the next page, when he's had time to think about it.
demonlord5000
Well that's true, though I would think jeroen is experienced enough to avoid that situation. The whole team gimmick is sort of silly without a guaranteed mordred too, so I would assume he put one in even though he only listed it as a possibility.
Also, this goes more towards LockeZ's point. He's the first to insist that Mordred has to be in the game.
OHhhh my god I wrote my list down and then lost it when I hit back on my phone and lost the page. T.T Retyping it...
Okay so here are my opinions then, hopefully it'll be helpful However to give my full opinions on a couple people I will be metagaming as YM called it, from memory anyways. I'm not good with words but I'll try to explain my reasoning.
demonlord, ozzy and ym give me weird vibes but I don't really trust my gut feeling. demon gives me the most vibes which is why I have acted on that. ym seems, idk if aggressive is the word and I don't mean their lynch of me (I totally understand their lynch reasoning XD), they seem to be posting more so that's good and maybe I'm just reading beneath lines that aren't there. Ozzy's post just seemed kind of weird? I don't know, maybe the way it was written, or maybe I just got confused, psy made it clear what ozzy was saying so my feeling isn't as weird on him anymore, I think i just got confused. demonlord just gives me a weird vibe in general and I don't know exactly why. Is it the way he's writing? His playstyle? ugh sorry that's not helpful.
IF and PA are neutral leaning on scum territory for me but they've been helpful otherwise. I don't want to act on helpful players especially if I don't have an actual reason besides a weird feeling, especially if I happen to be wrong x.x
odd and cap are neutral with town leans. cap is just a bit of an aggressive player in general and i remember scum odd, he acts nothing like this - however he could just be getting better. but for now i have a decently good vibe on them both.
pianotm and ky are strong town. piano has been nothing but helpful with the list and pointing out everything he can and ky seems like trustful town, they remind me of when I first started playing, I'd be heavily surprised if either were scum.
LockeZ just joined but from his posts I'm leaning on strong town. He came in strong and put in his lynch factor, he's read everything and I get the feeling of ...the opposite of hesitation? Haha what's the word. Like he knows what he feels and he's going for it. His mission explanation confused me more tho LOL
I don't have much to say on psy or gourd. gourd hasn't said much and I don't really have any vibes on them, psy is scary hard to read and I'm leaning on true neutral ground on him. if there was an indie in game he definitely would strike me as one which is why I can't read him in either direction.
Urg, I hope this was helpful. I didn't think it would be since I... don't really have much to go on and most has been said, I thought maybe repeating it would be more annoying than anything, plus some of my vibes come from metagaming x.x sigh.
Okay so here are my opinions then, hopefully it'll be helpful However to give my full opinions on a couple people I will be metagaming as YM called it, from memory anyways. I'm not good with words but I'll try to explain my reasoning.
demonlord, ozzy and ym give me weird vibes but I don't really trust my gut feeling. demon gives me the most vibes which is why I have acted on that. ym seems, idk if aggressive is the word and I don't mean their lynch of me (I totally understand their lynch reasoning XD), they seem to be posting more so that's good and maybe I'm just reading beneath lines that aren't there. Ozzy's post just seemed kind of weird? I don't know, maybe the way it was written, or maybe I just got confused, psy made it clear what ozzy was saying so my feeling isn't as weird on him anymore, I think i just got confused. demonlord just gives me a weird vibe in general and I don't know exactly why. Is it the way he's writing? His playstyle? ugh sorry that's not helpful.
IF and PA are neutral leaning on scum territory for me but they've been helpful otherwise. I don't want to act on helpful players especially if I don't have an actual reason besides a weird feeling, especially if I happen to be wrong x.x
odd and cap are neutral with town leans. cap is just a bit of an aggressive player in general and i remember scum odd, he acts nothing like this - however he could just be getting better. but for now i have a decently good vibe on them both.
pianotm and ky are strong town. piano has been nothing but helpful with the list and pointing out everything he can and ky seems like trustful town, they remind me of when I first started playing, I'd be heavily surprised if either were scum.
LockeZ just joined but from his posts I'm leaning on strong town. He came in strong and put in his lynch factor, he's read everything and I get the feeling of ...the opposite of hesitation? Haha what's the word. Like he knows what he feels and he's going for it. His mission explanation confused me more tho LOL
I don't have much to say on psy or gourd. gourd hasn't said much and I don't really have any vibes on them, psy is scary hard to read and I'm leaning on true neutral ground on him. if there was an indie in game he definitely would strike me as one which is why I can't read him in either direction.
Urg, I hope this was helpful. I didn't think it would be since I... don't really have much to go on and most has been said, I thought maybe repeating it would be more annoying than anything, plus some of my vibes come from metagaming x.x sigh.
Yes, this is helpful.
I think your feelings of Ozzy may be based on his certainty of certain facts. He's making some pretty reckless assumptions.
Also, intuition is helpful when you're having trouble quantifying what you're observing.
Muffle
demonlord, ozzy and ym give me weird vibes but I don't really trust my gut feeling. demon gives me the most vibes which is why I have acted on that. ym seems, idk if aggressive is the word and I don't mean their lynch of me (I totally understand their lynch reasoning XD), they seem to be posting more so that's good and maybe I'm just reading beneath lines that aren't there. Ozzy's post just seemed kind of weird? I don't know, maybe the way it was written, or maybe I just got confused, psy made it clear what ozzy was saying so my feeling isn't as weird on him anymore, I think i just got confused. demonlord just gives me a weird vibe in general and I don't know exactly why. Is it the way he's writing? His playstyle? ugh sorry that's not helpful.
I think your feelings of Ozzy may be based on his certainty of certain facts. He's making some pretty reckless assumptions.
Also, intuition is helpful when you're having trouble quantifying what you're observing.
psy_wombats
13315
@piano: yeah, actually, that's actually a lot weaker reaction than I remembered. However I'm still only really willing to vote for Ozzy or IF today.
Decent list @Muffle. Agreed Gourd needs to post more. Also PSA people acting differently than normal can also be because they have town PRs.
LockeZ's stuff about picking the teams is fine. I hadn't thought about it much because I don't think failures are likely. However, with that Ozzy's trying to do, we shouldn't choose tomorrow's team today, given we'll have a lot more information tomorrow and scum gets a veto power because if they didn't like the team, they'd kill someone on it tonight.
Decent list @Muffle. Agreed Gourd needs to post more. Also PSA people acting differently than normal can also be because they have town PRs.
LockeZ's stuff about picking the teams is fine. I hadn't thought about it much because I don't think failures are likely. However, with that Ozzy's trying to do, we shouldn't choose tomorrow's team today, given we'll have a lot more information tomorrow and scum gets a veto power because if they didn't like the team, they'd kill someone on it tonight.
demonlord5000
680
Just caught up. Keep in mind I was pretty annoyed in my earlier posts even if you didn't read it that way. I think anyone would be pretty frustrated if they had joined their first mafia in awhile, and then immediately after think it had been ruined due to reasons.
I still think it'd be pretty silly that there isn't a mordred in this setup. Merlin is a guaranteed so it'd be silly for mordred not to me.
Took out the extra quotes, but I found this post to be strange.
Specifically, piano is talking like merlin not being in the game is a possibility, when that was the only guaranteed role. Interestingly enough, odd made that same mistake earlier. I found that to be extremely odd. Piano is not usually one to make a mistake like that.
Lockez post is reasonable. He did come in late with a fresh perspective, so I can't really fault him for seeing it the way he did. Game ends with merlins death, and I spoke about the game being cancelled because I thought someone else had thoughtlessly ruined the game. Pianos comment after even confirmed my reasoning on the matter.
Muffles list is good as it gives a different perspective on everyone.
I still think it'd be pretty silly that there isn't a mordred in this setup. Merlin is a guaranteed so it'd be silly for mordred not to me.
Took out the extra quotes, but I found this post to be strange.
author=pianotm
I'm not sure how Jero balanced this game. We can only speculate, and it's best not to speculate on what Jero did, and if we do focus on mechanics, focus more on how it effects the game, and this means we need to consider all possibilities. Merlin may not be able scumhunt with his ability without outing themself, but it is entirely possible that Mordred may not be in the game as a counterbalance to Merlin's power. Conversely, the same could also be true in reverse, especially if there's four scum. Also, I don't think Jero would have included mechanics if he didn't expect them to be used, and the fail mechanic definitely exists.
My feeling is that Mordred and Merlin are probably both in the game, but we have to consider the possibility that they may not be.
Specifically, piano is talking like merlin not being in the game is a possibility, when that was the only guaranteed role. Interestingly enough, odd made that same mistake earlier. I found that to be extremely odd. Piano is not usually one to make a mistake like that.
Lockez post is reasonable. He did come in late with a fresh perspective, so I can't really fault him for seeing it the way he did. Game ends with merlins death, and I spoke about the game being cancelled because I thought someone else had thoughtlessly ruined the game. Pianos comment after even confirmed my reasoning on the matter.
Muffles list is good as it gives a different perspective on everyone.
psy_wombats
13315
public service announcement / power role
I'm just saying I don't put much faith in arguments that start with "xxx usually plays like yyy" because it's not necessarily a scum-tell, they could be being weird because of some power of their own instead.
I'm just saying I don't put much faith in arguments that start with "xxx usually plays like yyy" because it's not necessarily a scum-tell, they could be being weird because of some power of their own instead.
author=demonlord5000
Just caught up. Keep in mind I was pretty annoyed in my earlier posts even if you didn't read it that way. I think anyone would be pretty frustrated if they had joined their first mafia in awhile, and then immediately after think it had been ruined due to reasons.
Yeah, I can imagine, except you didn't seem super freaked out, though I guess the dead game comment could be read that way. I'll give you that.
I still think it'd be pretty silly that there isn't a mordred in this setup. Merlin is a guaranteed so it'd be silly for mordred not to me.
Took out the extra quotes, but I found this post to be strange.
author=pianotm
I'm not sure how Jero balanced this game. We can only speculate, and it's best not to speculate on what Jero did, and if we do focus on mechanics, focus more on how it effects the game, and this means we need to consider all possibilities. Merlin may not be able scumhunt with his ability without outing themself, but it is entirely possible that Mordred may not be in the game as a counterbalance to Merlin's power. Conversely, the same could also be true in reverse, especially if there's four scum. Also, I don't think Jero would have included mechanics if he didn't expect them to be used, and the fail mechanic definitely exists.
My feeling is that Mordred and Merlin are probably both in the game, but we have to consider the possibility that they may not be.
Specifically, piano is talking like merlin not being in the game is a possibility, when that was the only guaranteed role. Interestingly enough, odd made that same mistake earlier. I found that to be extremely odd. Piano is not usually one to make a mistake like that.
I make mistakes like that all the time, especially in these games. Going back and reading the rules, I'll contend that the rules don't explicitly state that the Merlin role is guaranteed, though I will admit that it only specifies that Mordred might not be in the game. Ask anyone I play D&D/Pathfinder with. My reading comprehension isn't fantastic, a painful fact I've been forced to come to terms with. "Merlin is def in the game, gais" is not explicitly in the rules. Missing that Merlin's rules are in contrast to the rules for Mordred is only to be expected for players who don't pore over the rules.
Lockez post is reasonable. He did come in late with a fresh perspective, so I can't really fault him for seeing it the way he did. Game ends with merlins death, and I spoke about the game being cancelled because I thought someone else had thoughtlessly ruined the game. Pianos comment after even confirmed my reasoning on the matter.
Muffles list is good as it gives a different perspective on everyone.
Yeah, it's meta-gamey, sorry YM, but I do feel better about Muffle after her post.
demonlord5000
680
You don't have to look deep into the rules to spot it. If you look at all the roles, it has a number telling you how many potential players can be that role. Merlin is the only one with a definite number, while others are only at most x number.
I think if I've been more quiet it's just because it's day 1 and there isn't too much info to discuss. When the PA claiming as Merlin thing broke that was easier to speak on!
I don't remember everyone else's reads, so I might have to read them again but here's all the relevant ones:
IF + Piano: I have a really stong town read on IF just because he has been super active. More discussion = better for town. Additionally he was working toward figuring out the mission stuff earliest. The only iffy thing on him was not meaning to be on the teams when he set them up, but It was just a weird misunderstanding I think. No one really understood what was happening at that point.
I think piano looks town as well because he's contributing a lot to discussion. He's also hasn't been afraid to call people out so he reads like he hasn't much to hide. That's good!
PA: I can't think of a reason that scum would draw so much attention to themseves so I'm inclined to assume PA is town. He was actively helping even when his status as Merlin was questionable.
Odd; Thinking there might not be a Merlin is *very* weird. I think being afraid to say something is a fact could definitely come from being a scum afraid of saying the wrong thing.
cap: A lot of his arguments are reaching and he was the first person to admit this. It kinda feels like he's jumpy (scum?), which is what I thought at first, but he might just be trying to help (town?) so I don't have any strong opinions on him atm. I'd be chill lynching him as a day 1 lynch but I'd need more to lynch him any other day.
muffle: do not appreciate advocating for a no lynch even though multiple people told her it was a bad idea, and she also has been mimicking other people's arguments a lot (I say, using an argument I think I've seen before lol!) Would lynch
demon: I honestly didn't think his assumption there is Mordred is that bad, but the fact that he said it first is a little alarming. I don't think it's damning but it is good enough for a day 1 lynch.
Would lynch today(in this order): muffle, demon, cap
Would not lynch today, you can't make me (in this order) : IF, PA
Could Probably be convinced: Everyone else
I don't remember everyone else's reads, so I might have to read them again but here's all the relevant ones:
IF + Piano: I have a really stong town read on IF just because he has been super active. More discussion = better for town. Additionally he was working toward figuring out the mission stuff earliest. The only iffy thing on him was not meaning to be on the teams when he set them up, but It was just a weird misunderstanding I think. No one really understood what was happening at that point.
I think piano looks town as well because he's contributing a lot to discussion. He's also hasn't been afraid to call people out so he reads like he hasn't much to hide. That's good!
PA: I can't think of a reason that scum would draw so much attention to themseves so I'm inclined to assume PA is town. He was actively helping even when his status as Merlin was questionable.
Odd; Thinking there might not be a Merlin is *very* weird. I think being afraid to say something is a fact could definitely come from being a scum afraid of saying the wrong thing.
cap: A lot of his arguments are reaching and he was the first person to admit this. It kinda feels like he's jumpy (scum?), which is what I thought at first, but he might just be trying to help (town?) so I don't have any strong opinions on him atm. I'd be chill lynching him as a day 1 lynch but I'd need more to lynch him any other day.
muffle: do not appreciate advocating for a no lynch even though multiple people told her it was a bad idea, and she also has been mimicking other people's arguments a lot (I say, using an argument I think I've seen before lol!) Would lynch
demon: I honestly didn't think his assumption there is Mordred is that bad, but the fact that he said it first is a little alarming. I don't think it's damning but it is good enough for a day 1 lynch.
Would lynch today(in this order): muffle, demon, cap
Would not lynch today, you can't make me (in this order) : IF, PA
Could Probably be convinced: Everyone else
Also, like, if you do not have a thoughts on everyone, don't force yourself to put them on your list??
If you force your self to make reads, rather than actually having a legit read, that seems like it would be very easily manipulated by scum. I don't think everyone who made full lists going through every character is scum, but I do think that was a little naive.
If you force your self to make reads, rather than actually having a legit read, that seems like it would be very easily manipulated by scum. I don't think everyone who made full lists going through every character is scum, but I do think that was a little naive.
Going back to my certainty of Mordred being in the game, it's just a gut feeling that I've tried to back up with a theory. For whatever reason I can't really picture this game not having a Mordred. While yes, I've made up most my speculations with the assumption that Mordred is part of the game, I also made up some speculation about an assassin existing, yet that isn't suspicious. I guess it is because I haven't made more specualation in regards to there being an assassin. I do realize that assuming and insisting that a role is in the game when I don't really know if it is isn't the best thing to do. Hence why I am still open to the idea that there is no Mordred, but I just find that extremely unlikely.
I also find Muffle's list very nice! It also made my suspicions of her go away on the most part.
Decent point psy, we should indeed not chose a team for day 2 on day 1, in hindsight, that was indeed a bad call from me.
I also find Muffle's list very nice! It also made my suspicions of her go away on the most part.
author=psy_wombats
@piano: yeah, actually, that's actually a lot weaker reaction than I remembered. However I'm still only really willing to vote for Ozzy or IF today.
Decent list @Muffle. Agreed Gourd needs to post more. Also PSA people acting differently than normal can also be because they have town PRs.
LockeZ's stuff about picking the teams is fine. I hadn't thought about it much because I don't think failures are likely. However, with that Ozzy's trying to do, we shouldn't choose tomorrow's team today, given we'll have a lot more information tomorrow and scum gets a veto power because if they didn't like the team, they'd kill someone on it tonight.
Decent point psy, we should indeed not chose a team for day 2 on day 1, in hindsight, that was indeed a bad call from me.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
The fake Merlin claim by PlatinumAshes honestly bothers me a lot too, just as the kind of thing scum might do just in case people believe it. If people assume it's a fake claim or a joke then no harm done, but there's always a chance people will think it's real, or that the real Merlin or Percival will counterclaim.
The self-vote that went along with it calms me down, because that made it super-obviously a joke that nobody could possibly fall for - except multiple people still did. I think that maybe the only reason I find it suspicious is because other people were such numpties about it.
But if it were supposed to obviously be a joke then why was your later explanation that you wanted to "see reactions to it?" Like... the only reactions that would matter would be Merlin and Percival outing themselves. No member of scum is going to react by trying to get you lynched; it's too suspicious and they have a night kill for that. What frickin' "reactions" did you expect exactly, other than town suicide?
A tiny piece of me also wonders if the drama was a planned setup by Demonlord5000 and PlatinumAshes to make people take the fake claim seriously, while simultaneously having the self-vote as a thing Plat could point to and say "no I was obviously joking." This is a very silly conspiracy theory though, mostly because it's such a bad plan.
The self-vote that went along with it calms me down, because that made it super-obviously a joke that nobody could possibly fall for - except multiple people still did. I think that maybe the only reason I find it suspicious is because other people were such numpties about it.
But if it were supposed to obviously be a joke then why was your later explanation that you wanted to "see reactions to it?" Like... the only reactions that would matter would be Merlin and Percival outing themselves. No member of scum is going to react by trying to get you lynched; it's too suspicious and they have a night kill for that. What frickin' "reactions" did you expect exactly, other than town suicide?
A tiny piece of me also wonders if the drama was a planned setup by Demonlord5000 and PlatinumAshes to make people take the fake claim seriously, while simultaneously having the self-vote as a thing Plat could point to and say "no I was obviously joking." This is a very silly conspiracy theory though, mostly because it's such a bad plan.
Gonna catch up, lot of good stuff!
And my vote on Atiya was maybe to get a response until I knew they weren't in the game for sure. Piano had ninja'd me on the post too
And my vote on Atiya was maybe to get a response until I knew they weren't in the game for sure. Piano had ninja'd me on the post too
@LockeZ I think it was a joke that he later tried to justified tbh. I'd normally declare that scummy because town shouldn't have anything to hide, but like, he said he was going to do ti before the game began. Good chance he assumed, because cave has done similar before, that just making extraordinary claims is a good way to scum hunt.
I stand by it's too dumb to be scum (tm) tbh
I stand by it's too dumb to be scum (tm) tbh
