[MAFIA] THE RESISTANCE: AVALON MAFIA - GAME ON

I still am suspicious of Ozzy, but I feel he has given me less reason to be worried about him now, myself. It's an interesting point to consider why I had the feeling though.

I am happy with either, but I feel like voting for IF more. Sorry buddy.
I will need to go to sleep now so I will put this out there now, and adjust later if I have to. I am a bit worried about being swayed by psy after good additions to things, but it is in line with what I've felt stronger over time, and well, it's as good a reason as any to start deciding on something for me.

#lynch InfectionFiles

There is one more day to discuss things, right? Being like 70 hours or something?

psy_wombats
@piano It doesn't break anything but it means the mechanic was added as a means to weaken town. Or you're thinking Jero assumed that scum would fail some missions and give town extra info to work with?

I'm not sure how Jero balanced this game. We can only speculate, and it's best not to speculate on what Jero did, and if we do focus on mechanics, focus more on how it effects the game, and this means we need to consider all possibilities. Merlin may not be able scumhunt with his ability without outing themself, but it is entirely possible that Mordred may not be in the game as a counterbalance to Merlin's power. Conversely, the same could also be true in reverse, especially if there's four scum. Also, I don't think Jero would have included mechanics if he didn't expect them to be used, and the fail mechanic definitely exists.

Regardless, I'm more confident Mordred exists because Ozzy is assured he exists. Even go back to that post he made right off the bat about scumcount - he goes in right off the bat saying "assume Mordred exists."

Well, this is provided Ozzy turns out to be scum. I'd like more on why you think Ozzy is scum.

My feeling is that Mordred and Merlin are probably both in the game, but we have to consider the possibility that they may not be.

If I were to pick a single suspect today it'd be Muffle, going by her posts in this game so far. As a rule I'm always cautious of someone who suggests no lynch on Day 1, and coupled with her apparently not being able to form any opinions of her own today it's not looking great.

#lynch Muffle

LockeZ
Ozzy jumped in on that, but before that, it was mostly demonlord who was insisting that Mordred must exist. Demonlord was the first one to do it at least, from what I see (on page 5).

Also demonlord was the one going on about cancelling the game for no reason, which doesn't seem like deliberate mind games, it just seems like him being a thoughtless asshole. But if it was deliberate mind games, then the goal was probably to make everyone else pay less attention and post less. Which is beneficial for scum. It's much harder to find scum when nobody is talking.

Also something about the way he was writing in some of his posts just rubbed me the wrong way and I can't explain why. So at this point I want to [LockeZ's demonlord vote].

pianotm
demonlord: I'll admit, when PA claimed, I was a little concerned about the way the game was going to go, but I wasn't about to declare it dead. That took me quite by surprise. He's gone to great lengths to help clarify rules. Eager to find someone to lynch, but there's nothing odd about that. I'm not as certain about demonlord.

Yeah, as I mentioned here, that has been bothering me about him declaring the game dead. He also does, in fact, seem to be mostly just reacting to other people, but I actually feel that more from Muffle.

Yellow Magic
If I were to pick a single suspect today it'd be Muffle, going by her posts in this game so far. As a rule I'm always cautious of someone who suggests no lynch on Day 1, and coupled with her apparently not being able to form any opinions of her own today it's not looking great.

[YM's Muffle vote]

pianotm
Muffle: She reminds me a bit of me when I first started playing, going mostly on her real-life experience except, I know she's played games before. I've been in mafia game with her. She seems to be echoing Ky quite a bit, and I'm not so sure of that. That actually puts me a little on edge. Not enough information yet to really give a reading on her.

Here was the opinion I posted on Muffle. Again, I definitely agree, and since I've made this post she's gone on to point out that she mostly agrees with other people, namely me, and then offers nothing of her own in support.

I would be willing to jump on either of these lynches, but since demonlord has been a bit more active and has actually made that "dead game" post, potentially demoralizing town, I'm going to prefer him.

#lynch demonlord5000

author=Muffle
I didn't mention lynching you because you got confused on rules though, I just got a weird vibe from you - nothing too much to go on besides you're less active as other people though.

But earlier you posted:

Gonna go for majority vote in the end probably, but I agree with the folks contemplating YM for the same reasons.

What are these "same reasons"? The same reasons as who?

Pianotm seems like the towniest person in the game so far, to me. He was the first one to create a list of reads. He has been discussing strategies to use on the missions. And I think most tellingly, he warned against voting for AtiyaTheSeeker when InfectionFiles voted for her, because she was likely going to be modkilled. That warning is something scum wouldn't normally do, because wasting a lynch is beneficial to them, but it's also something that's subtle enough that I don't think scum would do it just to look more like town. I mean, it's very likely that nobody would even think about it that way.

OK, I'm gonna talk about mission strategy.

I think the ideal mission makeup, for now, consists of one person who we think is very likely or confirmed to be town, and two unknowns. That way, if the mission fails, we have a 50/50 shot at knowing who is scum. If we send two confirmed town with one questionable person, it'll succeed every time, but I think that if we have already confirmed one of the three people then success is actually less useful to town than failure at this stage in the game. Because knowing that one of two people is scum is far more powerful than knowing that one of eleven people isn't Mordred (who might not even exist), and also probably more powerful than preventing scum from narrowing down Merlin by one person (especially since that person might die later anyway).

Late in the game when there are fewer total players, I think that will change, and the knowledge about Mordred and Merlin will be more powerful, just due to the numbers. So starting around day three or so, and definitely from day four onward, IMO we should start trying our hardest to send people who will succeed on missions.

author=Yellow Magic
If I were to pick a single suspect today it'd be Muffle, going by her posts in this game so far. As a rule I'm always cautious of someone who suggests no lynch on Day 1, and coupled with her apparently not being able to form any opinions of her own today it's not looking great.

Muffle being non-confrontational just sounds like Muffle to me, lol. But your reasoning still makes sense, and it's not as if we're likely to get a strong lynch target on day 1, so I don't actually have a problem with the Muffle vote either.

Psy's analysis of Ozzy also makes a ton of sense now that he has explained it.

earlier*

I do find Locke's idea on how to form the teams to be a very good one. Who are your guys' most town leaning people?

I say Kylaila is pretty town leaning for me, what do you guys think?