I am back and I will read all of this craziness and come back with some comments~
Yellow Magic
I'll never regain the bones I lost from my loneliness and sorrow
Gosh can we avoid the excessive metagaming if possible? I'm not a fan of the whole "well USUALLY in mafia games they do xyz but not abc". When was the last Mafia game anyway? People change, innit?
I hate that stuff too but I got used to it with 3 months of mafia. Don't think there's gonna be any way to prevent that stuff unless rules specifically say so. People will say it's not meta gaming it's remembering how people play... Sorry though ...
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
I'm really trying to not be meta. That's why I'm keeping on ODD, hell even Psy or Piano and demon for that matter.
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
But it's all good. It happens when you play with the same people a lot. That's why you should try to start with a blank slate.
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
Ok, on the entire 3 scums or 4 scums, I have a theory that might prove the number of scum being 3. I will assume Mordred is part of the game in this theory, so take that in mind for future analysis of this theory.

If there are 3 scum, there will be 1 Mordred and 2 Scum that aren't Oberon, I'm leaning towards an assassin and some other random role. If you factor in the team missions, this seems likely too, because the team, if it fails, will tell the scum which of the surviving people is not Merlin, which is incredibly useful because they don't need to waste a nightkill on said person. Lets go with the following assumption:
-Day 1 is a town lynch and the mission was failed.
-Scum will know if the lynch is town for obvious reasons.
-That means that if the lynch goes more or less their way, they will now have 7 possible Merlin targets because 1 town just died and one town was just ousted as not Merlin.

This means that their nightkill will reduce their list of potential Merlin targets to a whooping 6 players after Day 1 alone!

Of course, that is assuming that the person that is lynched is not the person that is revealed as not Merlin. That is also assuming they don't randomly hit Merlin with nightkill 1.
If there would be 4 scum, scum can bring down the number of possible Merlin targets down to only 5 within one day! Which is insane, hence why I lean towards there only being 3 scum.
I'm gonna assume their is mordred otherwise we will be wracking our brains even further. So, this makes sense where conditions apply.
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
I think there are 3 scum jus tbc that seems like a fair number of scum for us to have to get through.

Also, now that I'm understanding the rules better; Assuming there *is* a Mordred, getting a success on the missions is actually very good and helpful. I'm not sure why we've been calling it unhelpful - Is it the possibility of no mordred?

I don't find anyone particularly scummy so far, but if I had to pick someone to lynch today - and I do since it helps us - I would pick cap. I *do* think that he's just throwing out whatever he's thinking, but a lot of his actions so far seem like they've been detrimental to town (like I was saying earlier). I'm gonna cast a vote bc I want us to have as much time to speak as possible!

Metagaming is annoying yeah. >.< I'll try not to but it's almost instinctual tbh.
Hi piano!!!

I guess, it depends if you want to play it safe. I played Mafia for 3 month straights in real life games and some of the games went better when we didn't Lynch the first day, that was the reason why I brought it up. Since we have no scum leads on first day, sometimes its better to wait till day 2 for more information instead of the high risk of killing off two townies by day 2. But I understand wanting to take the chance and possibly probe more information out of our Lyn h. Maybe we'll get a viable scum read by the end of the day but it's seems... Unlikely.

I think that lynching today gives us more information to talk about tomorrow. Also, this game is a little bit different - assuming there is a mordred - we just have to narrow it down to who is mordred. In that case, the less people the better because we can narrow it down to who isn't and is mordred.

I think we also have an advantage in the fact that our merlin should know who some of scum is so we already have someone hypervigilant on behavior. We just have to give that person (and the rest of the players) something to react to!
It's difficult to not be meta when it's largely the same group of people playing, and especially on d1 when there's not much to scumhunt with. And you can't really police your thoughts -- if you think someone is scum because they're acting off, then you can't just ignore it or lie about the reason or w/e. (people who go back and read old games are crazy though, wouldn't go that far)

@IF: what did you find suspicious about Odd?

@Gourd: it's not a town confirm, it's a "not-mordred" confirm so they still might be scum anyway. I'm like 90% sure on this. The other reason I don't think it's overly important to succeed at them is that the failure information "not-merlin," is helpful as well... because it means the person in question can be safely daykilled haha. So, my opinion: the results are probably helpful but organizing the teams and everything is just a distraction from the actual scumhunting.

Other thoughts: yeah, take back what I said about d1 being a crapshoot. In this game it's definitely not a crapshoot since there's guaranteed to be a person who already knows at least some of the scumteam.
@psy Well, if we only have to kill mordred to win that's kind of better than just a town confirm isn't it?
The TM is for Totally Magical.
I've been reading and rereading and rereading and I'm having a hard time reading people this time around. Maybe I'm out of practice. The only one I'm dead certain about is oddRABBIT.

oddRABBIT: I'm very comfortable calling him town. He acts the way I'm familiar with him acting. I also know that when he has a secret in these games, he's incapable of keeping quiet. We'd know SOMETHING about him by now if he was scum. Also, his failure to pay attention to the thread strikes me as the opposite of scum.

Cap_H: Is pretty aggressively scumhunting, which is good in my opinion. I am a bit perturbed he cast a lynch vote on a player that was obviously baiting us. After seeing that lynches can have unexpected effects in non-vanilla games, I'd think we'd be more careful about stuff like that, but I guess I can see Cap's point. He's a strong town-lean for me.

AtiyaTheSeeker: Needs to talk more. I think she's only made one or two posts.

psy_wombats: Straight numbers, as always. He is damned hard to get a read on. Frankly, always has been.

Gourd_Clae: His playstyle has been very reserved and he hasn't been really taking any risks. He reads town to me, but I'm not as enthusiastic as I am about Cap_H and oddRABBIT. Right now, I'll just chalk it up to the uncertainty of day one.

Kylaila: Super-bubbly, enthusiastic new town! Nothing to see here.

InfectionFiles: Has been very involved, and a very helpful player. He has been questionably defensive a couple times, but mostly, I am reading him as town.

YellowMagic: YellowMagic is YellowMagic. However, it is my experience that he gets easier to read as the game progresses.

Muffle: She reminds me a bit of me when I first started playing, going mostly on her real-life experience except, I know she's played games before. I've been in mafia game with her. She seems to be echoing Ky quite a bit, and I'm not so sure of that. That actually puts me a little on edge. Not enough information yet to really give a reading on her.

PlatinumAshes: I read him as misguided town.

demonlord: I'll admit, when PA claimed, I was a little concerned about the way the game was going to go, but I wasn't about to declare it dead. That took me quite by surprise. He's gone to great lengths to help clarify rules. Eager to find someone to lynch, but there's nothing odd about that. I'm not as certain about demonlord.

OzzyTheOne: His post, singular, directly cut into a question raised by PA and IF. That the post he made was as useful as he could make it is telling. His lack of interaction is concerning. He could be laser focused town or overcautious scum. I will add as a caveat, that we were supposed to have a Dungeons and Dragons 5E session today and he never showed and nor did he ever respond to any Discord ats, so may simply not be able to post for whatever reason. Would have been nice if he'd told us he couldn't show so we didn't spend an hour and a half in the chat waiting for him, but maybe he wasn't in a position to.
I don't even know what you mean by echoing xD I just thought maybe they were new and that's the first advice I was ever given. Anyways. I pretty much agree with piano, he put it in better words than I could. Im playing a game so if I have anything else to say I will later.
It's difficult to avoid meta, when someone has a specific playstyle (like Odd) and is a possible mislynch target due to that.
Also, you often need to use more of a generic meta to point out scummy situations.
In case of Odd, he failed to focus on anything but himself so far, but the way piano's defending him makes me feel better about him and it makes me feel good about piano too. White knighting Odd hasn't been necessary so far, It reads real to me.

Piano's also the first player to post reads on everyone. Being the first to bring this much information in the thread is towny in general. He has one too many townreads imo.

I also like Muffle's remark considering Odd:
Also I'm very watchful of Odd considering his gameplay. Last time he barely posted at all to the point there was no way we could even think to suspect him. I dislike that, wish people would put a "gotta post so many times a day." But he's posting more than that time so I'm not too suspicious, especially since it's first day. Always find that behavior suspicious tho haha. Easy way to win..

Muffle herself feels free flowing and her tone is good. I like finding her being in touch with others, reacting to the thread. I got fooled by her in the past, but this feels townish so far.

@Goourd, suspecting me for being honest isn't the best case.

YM only dropping in to say, that he hates meta is meh. He might be busy irl (same goes for Ozzy, who only posted an analysis of mechanics, which is helpful but not alignment indicative), but it's lackluster and I think most players has shown townier attitude.
I don't think we strayed too much, part of it is simply that a lot of the rules. Also muffle brought it up since the decision could also be to NOT lynch today. It's cool to say "that's enough meta game" but how about just adding some non-meta discussion?
Just being new rant:
Anyhow muffle, thank you for the reminder, even though I am thankfully well aware^^ (I've played werewolf irl only, a few times). Honestly, typing out I feel some peeps feel townish made me question it the moment I replied. Welp. I admit I don't feel too comfortable trying to find someone I lynch. It somehow feels more malicious here than if we were sitting in a room with each other, for me. But I guess it's the same 'no hard feelings' eh) (now detour END)

I feel like staying back and watching a bit more, but I figure we will not get much out of things. Here's my impressions (or gut-feeling), which is up to change, obviously.

No lynch:
I have a good feeling for muffle, gourd, piano as well as Cap_H and platinumashes (either that, or PA's brilliant) after consideration.
demonlord has provided more analysis, but I still feel confused, I would rather not lynch demonlord though.

Maybe lynch?
Not feeling good with Ozzy or IF, can't place it though.
YM hasn't said much either, but I think it's more of a wait-and-see approach, though the only other approach I saw concerned the scum side with fails being a thing that's hard to prevent without any follow-up, so that feels a bit off to me. What about trying to add to teams?

Ariya hasn't said much, and psy has been very very neutral, which has me a bit on edge, but it's been valid points, so that evens it out.

I have no good candidate to propose to lynch, but I am in favor of a d1 lynch.

This prolly isn't much more, nor more valuable than other peeps' analysis, but I figure I would put it out since I might miss most of the more active phase tonight.
And anytime I tag piano friendly I get the jitters. I haven't seen enough food for doubt, but just noting. Maybe I respect 'em too much here.
I am now certain that you are not scum and are just town trying to play scum as hard as possible.
I'm busy with uni right now, but I will read up on the conversation tonight and post my two cents.
I ended up busy last night and passed out, but looks like I didn't miss that much from my last post. Also, it is extremely difficult to not meta when analyzing. I'm about to do a little of that here.

Piano makes a lot of good points so I'll go through that now.

Odd: I'm neutral on him right now. He tends to always play negatively so nothing new there. I've no reason to think of him as scum.

Cap: I think he's always been a pretty aggressive player, so I have a slight town-lean for him.

Altiya: Only spoke a single time and that was right when the game started. I'm not against lynching if she doesn't get active. There's been plenty of time now.

Psy: Same opinion as piano. Extremely hard to read so I'm neutral here.

Gourd: I'm unsure here. I'd say slight scum read because I am unsure how I feel about the way he said giving merlin something to react to. Having lancealot is no guarantee, and merlin shouldn't do anything to stand out. At the very least they should be subtle about how they hunt, which also means they can't help us much.

Kylaila: Seems new town to me. She's doing her best to analyze so I have no reason to suspect her.

Infection: He's been active and helpful. Easily a town lean for me right now.

Yellow: Hasn't been too active and has also made obvious mistakes such as thinking there is an indie because of it. I'll say neutral because not enough to go on yet.

Muffle: Tough call. Muffle always tries to be helpful and that makes her hard to read. I want to say slight town lean for now, but may change my mind as the game goes on.

Platinum: Town read for me. It involves my theory from earlier that may or may not be correct.

Piano: Another one that's always tough to read. Piano always seems helpful to me. I'd say slight town read for now, but may change my mind later depending on how the game plays out.

Ozzy: Not much to go on. Neutral here because he hasn't been too active.
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
Hey! A bit happened!

Gonna use demon's name list here:

Odd: Probably town, but you never know with his playstyle. He seems to be doing more and trying more which I like to see. But the biggest thing he gave us recently was coming in after the game started and only focused on PA's post and then not much else.

Cap: Cap seems helpful and usually drops at least interesting posts when he's here. Probably town or good scum.

Atiya: Just not here. I'm also fine with a lynch against them unless they become active. Could even be that they are overly cautious scum and don't know how to respond. Especially trying to catch up and not super focus on one thing or another.

Psy: Always a hard read for me and that makes me always suspicious of him. Trying to get away from that, he's been helpful early game and he's kept on me for not wanting to join the first team, so reading town actually.

Gourd: Gourdy is gourdy. His posting style and what he chooses to pick on can be hard reads. Getting a slight scumlean on him because he's quiet but posts just enough and gives out just enough to be walking that line easily.

Kylaila: I'm pretty sure Ky is town. Not pushy and even proposed we form the first team(before she knew of the other one) That reads town to me because she wanted to get things started like me.

Demon: Definitely leaning more town, hasn't given any weird vibes since the beginning and that was only because he was connected to psy and piano and the three of them trying to figure out RNG.

Yellow: Not here enough and when he does post it hasn't really yielded anything for the game or town. Possible scum, maybe just busy.

Muffle: Probably vanilla town. Not much of a read on her to be honest.

Platinum: Weird merlin roleclaim, doubtfully scum but if he is then he'll have done a good job of pulling that nonsense early so everyone laughs him off. Need to keep an eye on him.

Piano: Like psy, scary and hard to read. But if town, GREAT for our side and generally helpful and aggressive and can give out lots of information. Hopefully town, no real lean either way.

Ozzy: Hasn't posted enough! He was excited for the game and then went quiet which can be a sign of scum, possibly even Mordred himself. Doesn't want to say too much but better say more soon!

Still only D1 though, but those are some of my thoughts and reads. Nothing too great, I feel. D2 will be interesting and seeing how the mission turns out and what happens exactly. I'l be on more later tonight and will be popping back in to check every now and then! (day off whoo hoo!)