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[MAFIA] SPY VS. MAFIA II DAY 3
Posts
OzzyTheOne
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Closeauthor=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACKWhat does this mean if I may ask?
overcorrected a little too much there, ozzy. I'm afraid you won't be getting any inventions, on account of being dead.
psy_wombats
13315
author=OzzyTheOneauthor=psy_wombatsWhy do you want me dead again?
not that I think much will change my mind re:Ozzy
Half because I'd find it funny, but also because cave stated what is also my town/scum tell on you (analytical vs maniacal), and now you'll probably be too sensitive to it for me to get an actual proper read.
Good morning,
I have more time to post because of me schedule being way calmer than it was few months ago. That said, I'm glad friday's night as I won't have any time to post on that day.
Some fresh observations:
1. LockeZ make one derivative, one vague and one scum read. The scum read is a joke honestly. We all know LockeZ practices policy lynches but this isn't a real reason. Also the rule of three (wolves when making reads or lists tend to put things in groups of three).
2. People voting Ozzy and the whole Ozzy affair, I don't know what to think about yet. He's definitely kicking back. There's not much to catch him for. I think that his cautious approach to Odd is ok, it was just something I wanted to question as it was important for me to see him argue for his opinion.
3. The demon thing is all very befuddling because of me..
4. Alaskan Emily returned with a post I would like to see her elaborate on. Especially on Demon (I'll go through his posts at work and do so myself). I think her defending Ozzy's warning looks good for her, tho.
#cancel
Back in 2 hours
I have more time to post because of me schedule being way calmer than it was few months ago. That said, I'm glad friday's night as I won't have any time to post on that day.
Some fresh observations:
1. LockeZ make one derivative, one vague and one scum read. The scum read is a joke honestly. We all know LockeZ practices policy lynches but this isn't a real reason. Also the rule of three (wolves when making reads or lists tend to put things in groups of three).
2. People voting Ozzy and the whole Ozzy affair, I don't know what to think about yet. He's definitely kicking back. There's not much to catch him for. I think that his cautious approach to Odd is ok, it was just something I wanted to question as it was important for me to see him argue for his opinion.
3. The demon thing is all very befuddling because of me..
4. Alaskan Emily returned with a post I would like to see her elaborate on. Especially on Demon (I'll go through his posts at work and do so myself). I think her defending Ozzy's warning looks good for her, tho.
#cancel
Back in 2 hours
author=Fomar0153
It might have been Ivory's influence, their mason chat was terrifying. If you could weaponise their paranoia you'd win any war by them tearing themselves apart.
Also, why is this Fomar's only new post?
Deadline is in 1 day, 9 hours.
AlaskanEmily:CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, Cap_H
oddRABBIT:AlaskanEmily, Jeroen_Sol
Jeroen_Sol:psy_wombats, PlatinumAshes
demonlord5000:PlatinumAshes, psy_wombats, Jeroen_Sol
PlatinumAshes:Jeroen_Sol, LockeZ
TremendousMilk3: PlatinumAshes
OzzyTheOne: CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, psy_wombats, demonlord5000
psy_wombats:OzzyTheOne
Game's vote majority, not player majority. Day only ends early if you actually hit that 7. You still lynch without it.
Anyway, I am off to bed.
AlaskanEmily:
oddRABBIT:
Jeroen_Sol:
demonlord5000:
PlatinumAshes:
TremendousMilk3: PlatinumAshes
OzzyTheOne: CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK, psy_wombats, demonlord5000
psy_wombats:
author=demonlord5000
#piano: You should include how many it takes to lynch in your votecounts. I think it's 7 players to lynch with 12 players right?
Game's vote majority, not player majority. Day only ends early if you actually hit that 7. You still lynch without it.
Anyway, I am off to bed.
AlaskanEmily
561
author=Cap_H
Good morning
Good morning!
author=Cap_H
Alaskan Emily returned with a post I would like to see her elaborate on. Especially on Demon (I'll go through his posts at work and do so myself). I think her defending Ozzy's warning looks good for her, tho.
I don't really think Demon is very suspicious, I was just wondering what Jeroen was thinking about. I don't think he's squeaky clean, but it does seem like he normally takes some time to not focus much on mechanics and in this game that isn't easy. The setup tells you quite little. Even less than in Cave's game, we don't even have a confirmed number of mafia. So I could believe that he would seem a bit different D1 here.
For what I said about PA, last game he was all over the place with fakeclaims and wacky schemes (which I still think he just made up later as an explanation), but turned out to be town. So it's a little surprising to me to see what I am 99% sure is a fakeclaim (or a very ill-advised claim I guess, maybe I just don't want agents to claim yet and think it would be kind of dumb to fakeclaim agent as regular town), while doing so in such a calm way. It seems strange. But It's also kind of "He's not being strange, isn't that strange".
...
So also, I don't really like Cave calling for consolidating votes. There is no nolynch here, even to the point that in a tie it's a coin-flip. It's better to get as much information in as possible since you can't "forget" or "miss" the hammer.
psy_wombats
13315
@cap: it struck me as odd that that was fomar's only opinion as well which is why he's on my hitlist, I'd be unsurprised if fomar+ozzy are scumteam as well. Because scum-fomar would definitely be playing up these useless probabilities because he was town-read for it that last game. I am not sure if Jeroen legtimately thinks pointing out basic probabilities is a town-tell but remembering back from umineko game uh probably yes
oh and yeah Ozzy kicked back at cave but he was calm and reasonable about it which is actually why I switched it to him, if he reflex-voted cave or whatever it would've been in-character. Which is sort of annoyed that cave pointed out Ozzy's town/scum tell thing immediately because he immediately got all self-conscious.
It is aggravating to me that the only people who've posted in the past like half day have been cap and the mod, I assume you're all busy plotting out harebrained schemes in your privatechats and I feel /massively/ left out and I hope one of you mauve agents is real and I get gifted an acme-brand RPG tonight because I am clearly the most trustworthy person around.
oh and yeah Ozzy kicked back at cave but he was calm and reasonable about it which is actually why I switched it to him, if he reflex-voted cave or whatever it would've been in-character. Which is sort of annoyed that cave pointed out Ozzy's town/scum tell thing immediately because he immediately got all self-conscious.
It is aggravating to me that the only people who've posted in the past like half day have been cap and the mod, I assume you're all busy plotting out harebrained schemes in your privatechats and I feel /massively/ left out and I hope one of you mauve agents is real and I get gifted an acme-brand RPG tonight because I am clearly the most trustworthy person around.
psy_wombats
13315
@AE: cave calling for vote consolidation was a little ehh for me but w/e he was also calling for Ozzy to be murdered and I'm on board with that, if cave were scum he's staking a lot on how ozzy flips
FWIW on demon, while yeah I can understand fixating on mechanics it's also sort of to the point where I assume people who are playing into "play with x strategy because x strategy got me townread before" are scum that are self-parodying themselves. demon to a way lesser extent than fomar -- pointing that odd being scum twice in a row is an independent event is way obvious, I'd kill Fomar first
FWIW on demon, while yeah I can understand fixating on mechanics it's also sort of to the point where I assume people who are playing into "play with x strategy because x strategy got me townread before" are scum that are self-parodying themselves. demon to a way lesser extent than fomar -- pointing that odd being scum twice in a row is an independent event is way obvious, I'd kill Fomar first
Fomar0153
16396
author=Cap_Hauthor=Fomar0153Also, why is this Fomar's only new post?
It might have been Ivory's influence, their mason chat was terrifying. If you could weaponise their paranoia you'd win any war by them tearing themselves apart.
Because I'm in the UK and was asleep. Also now we're right at the end of the school holidays so I won't be up quite as late I need to get back into a better routine.
I've only skimmed to catch up but will go and reread after this but right out of everyone mentioned:
Odd, Psy and Ozzy are playing different to the last game. Odd and Psy were scum last time and Ozzy was town.
Demonlord and Emily feel the same as last time and they were town.
PA...it looks the same as the last game but the crazy feels different. I have no clue.
I'm ok with lynching Ozzy or PA. Given the current vote count though I'll throw my vote behind Ozzy.
#lynch Ozzy
Fomar0153
16396
author=psy_wombats
@cap: it struck me as odd that that was fomar's only opinion as well which is why he's on my hitlist, I'd be unsurprised if fomar+ozzy are scumteam as well. Because scum-fomar would definitely be playing up these useless probabilities because he was town-read for it that last game. I am not sure if Jeroen legtimately thinks pointing out basic probabilities is a town-tell but remembering back from umineko game uh probably yes.
Town-read for it last game? That isn't how I remember it. I had the confirmed town calling me scum for the whole game, only PA was against lynching me. Maybe it was obvious I was town from the dead chat but that's not how it felt in the actual game. Also you beat me to posting the stats for this game, I hadn't at the time re-written my code to account for losing if both agents died.
author=psy_wombats
pointing that odd being scum twice in a row is an independent event is way obvious, I'd kill Fomar first
Well Odd asked what the odds were on him being scum twice in a row, so it wasn't obvious to him.
I like that wall from Emily, which is a consistent analysis and I consistently like PSY's posts. They're both breaking up things and trying to find reasons to vote or townread someone. At this point I would be surprised to see either of them flip scum, esp psy.
Fomar's recenze is solid and it seems genuine to me. But that's only the defense. His three reads are bad meta reads. By bad I mean plain without any explanation. His vote is and saying that he's ok with voting PA as well is cringey as there's not even a reason stated for it. Now back to the defense. Good wolves can make us feel bad for voting them and you getting a more regular schedule is not connected with your Rand. So far, I'm not entirely decided on you, but I would like to see more.
Fomar's recenze is solid and it seems genuine to me. But that's only the defense. His three reads are bad meta reads. By bad I mean plain without any explanation. His vote is and saying that he's ok with voting PA as well is cringey as there's not even a reason stated for it. Now back to the defense. Good wolves can make us feel bad for voting them and you getting a more regular schedule is not connected with your Rand. So far, I'm not entirely decided on you, but I would like to see more.
author=demonlord5000
I don't see the need to rush either. I'd say ozzy is probably my biggest lead now that he went gung-ho after being called out on behaving differently. I would of felt better if he stuck to what he was doing.
No real strong feelings about anyone else. Fomar is quiet but I don't think that's a tell. I think it's more so a day 1 thing where he's just not used to working with no information.
AE is weird, but AE is always weird. Given he was like this the last game too, I'm more inclined to think he's town.
The rest either read town or otherwise just haven't said enough for me to form a real judgement of yet.
I'll go ahead and...
#lynch ozzy
If I tried to meta read demon, he's probably close to his normal self. It doesn't sound like he's trying to stay low or mislead town. One thing I would like to point out is timing of his vote. Blatant bandwagonning. He also lacks original reads with an exception of his Fomar I'd quiet read (that one smells of tmi or buddying, tbh. As we can see now Fomar's reason is different). I probably would pursue him for this in every other game, but I feel like it's not enough when it comes to Demon. One important lesson I took from previous games is that he's easily influenced and a mislynch bait.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
author=CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
He didn't really have any attention on him. What's scummy about admitting a mistake and pointing out a historical inaccuracy at the same time?
I don't agree. He had a vote on him, and the post of Cap's he refers to feels much more like a guess that there are 3 scum than demon's post where he states it as fact. On top of that I just really don't like the "I fucked up but that's okay because I always fuck up" defence. It's like Odd saying he's useless, which he's used to great effect as scum in the past.
author=OzzyTheOne
Can you guys really not read an obvious joke vote against Psy? Sheesh.
That joke vote reads as trying to avoid playing the game, especially since you have no other reads than PA copying my avatar, which isn't really a read at all. The time for joke votes was clearly long over already and I'm sure you realize that. I'm not against lynching you now.
author=psy_wombats
I'm willing to kill Ozzy, Fomar, demonlord, or AE. But there are also 40 hours left so I don't think it's /that/ pressing.
Why Emily?
Re: Fomar, I don't really think listing probabilities is a town-tell, I just like probability and felt Odd was more suspicious in that conversation. I'm still not really seeing anything weird in Fomar's posts though. I think he mentioned probability once? I don't think that's playing up the useless probabilities.
LockeZ's vote to policy lynch PA seems very like him, and I kind of want to go along with it since PA is copying me, but there are better D1 lynches available.
@Milk, you've made two non-posts and that's it. What do you think of recent developments?
Ok, I read Ozzy's posts and they stink. He's deflective, defensive and trying to keep Odd on the table without commiting himself to a single read.
Consider my vote to be on him.
Consider my vote to be on him.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=Cap_H
LockeZ make one derivative, one vague and one scum read. The scum read is a joke honestly. We all know LockeZ practices policy lynches but this isn't a real reason. Also the rule of three (wolves when making reads or lists tend to put things in groups of three).
The rule of three is that anyone writing anything tends to put things in groups of three, because it's the first point where a group of things feels complete, you brainless biscuit. I just had three things to say, that's not a wolf tell.
Also, the avatar thing isn't a joke. Changing your avatar for mafia is a pretty well known strategy I thought. I remember one game where... Gourd, I think? Or Linkis? Someone changed their avatar from something violent to Wind Waker Link, and other people admitted after the game it made them subconsciously read that user's posts as less threatening. So this issue is common enough that I can even give an example from RMN.
Similarly it makes perfect sense to me that, if someone has almost the same avatar as someone else, then people will subconsciously conflate their attitudes toward the two people. You'll know who's speaking when you read each post, but a couple days later, your brain will whisper to itself while you aren't listening, "The guy with the Gene Wilder avatar was exaggerating a lot," or "The guy with the Gene Wilder avatar seemed helpful." You probably won't even know it's why you feel that way. But it's classic subconscious manipulation.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=AlaskanEmily
So also, I don't really like Cave calling for consolidating votes. There is no nolynch here, even to the point that in a tie it's a coin-flip. It's better to get as much information in as possible since you can't "forget" or "miss" the hammer.
Yeah, but we still get way more info about what the votes mean if there are actual votes to analyze. If the person who gets lynched only has two votes on them, then that's not nearly as much info to look at. So his suggestion makes sense to me at least. I at least think your read on Cave is a reasonable one that has some logic behind it; it doesn't convince me of the read, but it does convince me that you're trying to make useful reads. Between that and your general tone, I'm putting you on my "vaguely towny" list for now.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Cap, what changed inbetween you saying there was not much to catch Ozzy for and you saying his posts stink?
author=Jeroen_Sol
Cap, what changed inbetween you saying there was not much to catch Ozzy for and you saying his posts stink?
Easy, I read his posts properly, trying to find information to chew on. The lack of content made me change my mind.
I still think he's quite present and that made me feel good.
Also, his entrance doesn't fit the style and feels way more thought-out
