[MAFIA] SPY VS. MAFIA II DAY 3

Posts

oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Ah, sorry, I messed up formatting. Cap_H didn't say that second part, I did..

Anyways, it's probably dumb, and unlikely, I guess.
So, three people died last night? Or just the two named?
The way I understood the comics; We correctly guessed and lynched demonlord, the scum killed Ozzy and one of us had a bomb (vigilante) and killed PA who unfrotunately flipped town. Also something happened involving "gray."
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=Cap_H
So, we still got Fomar a confirmed town both from an item and the slip demon made (I need to recheck that comment) and Jero an almost confirmed town. I don't think there was any reason for hard bussing like that.


What slip? I missed this.

Something about psy is bothering me. He said the item only had a 90% accuracy rate but Pianotm just said "Fomar is town!" Is he lying? 90% accuracy that the user knows about but the moderator doesn't tell anyone else about sounds like the kind of thing that scum would make up if they had an item that fake-confirmed someone as town. So that when Fomar flips as scum, psy still has an explanation for why he was tricked.

Also he went out of his way to point out a couple other things he didn't know about the item, as if to say, "I can't come up with a foolproof lie to explain my behavior, because I don't know the entire setup, so I'll just leave my options open and claim I don't know exactly what I just did." He doesn't know who it targets. He doesn't know where it goes. He doesn't know WHEN it goes. He doesn't know if the 10% chance is a failure chance or a false reading chance. It's not a very good lie.

Psy's just been generally acting weird all game, asking for things that don't make sense to me. Why did he still want to lynch Ozzy after he claimed as an agent? Why did he want Ozzy to reveal the code names of the agents, when all Ozzy had to do to prove to the other agents was say "I'm Ozzy" in agent chat? He pushed kind of hard for that. Is it because Psy is in scum chat, and suspects that the double agent has the same name in both chats, and wanted that info?

Also, nobody else has used the trombone yet. So I think there's a very real possibility that Psy_wombats is lying and it didn't work anything like how he claimed. But if it just took some time to get transferred to someone else, and someone else has it now, then by all means please prove me wrong. I would love to actually have two confirmed town. Probably four, in fact, after the new mystery owner uses it.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=TremendousMilk3
So, three people died last night? Or just the two named?
Just the two. And also someone used an item, but it didn't seem to kill anyone.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=oddRABBIT
author=Fomar0153
It's probably also worth looking back at demonlord and the voting, as going by what ozzy said it's quite likely the scum agents didn't disclose their identities initially but demonlord would have disclosed his to them when things got serious.
Wouldn't it also be possible that Demonlord didn't reveal his identity to them as to avoid making them try to protect him either consciously or subconsciously? By doing that, it would make all of the other scum look like town.


That doesn't really make sense. I mean, scum should usually be protecting each other. You might decide to throw someone under the bus, but it doesn't make any sense to not even want the option to know whether you're doing so or not. Or to not give your teammates that option.
author=LockeZ
Is it because Psy is in scum chat, and suspects that the double agent has the same name in both chats, and wanted that info?


That is a really good point I hadn't considered, the two code names we have are James Bond and Austin Powers so just spies not even evil spies, so there probably is a good chance.
Cap_H
DIGITAL IDENTITY CRISIS
6625
author=demonlord5000
No real strong feelings about anyone else. Fomar is quiet but I don't think that's a tell. I think it's more so a day 1 thing where he's just not used to working with no information.

AE is weird, but AE is always weird. Given he was like this the last game too, I'm more inclined to think he's town.


This fomar read. Basically, he confirms him town, when he says the second part. I know its subtle but I called him out for it yesterday and I still believe that it was a slip of perspective.
Also, this Alaskan read looks bad for Emily now. I need to check her votes, especially the one on Demon.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Hmm.

Well, I personally never put X% items in games because they're not deterministic. I don't know how piano feels about them, but I could see the Euphonium working differently from what Psy stated.

Psy did say the 10% is a false reading, not a failure, but also that he wasn't 100% on that. He later confirmed it was a false reading again. @Psy, did you get mod confirmation on this?

While rereading Psy's posts I saw he referred to the double agent as gray agent once. This was in response to demon doing the same. Maybe scum knew of the existence of the double agent and that it was the gray agent? In that case, the comic seems to imply that either someone used an item on the double agent but it failed, or the double agent used an item on someone.

I'm gonna reread Emily now since I don't have much of an opinion on her yet.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
I reread Emily. Her opinions the whole game haven't been very outspoken. I don't think she's scum though, because her vote on demon was very wishy-washy.

author=AlaskanEmily
Alright, I'll put a vote on demon. I said before he seems a bit different now. I'm not convinced he is definitely scum, but sadly that's the best read I have.


I think scum would bus with more oomph for more town credit.

However, I did see something interesting:

author=AlaskanEmily
Also wouldn't a gray agent be possible (or even more likely) instead of an outright traitor, too?


Emily mentioned the term gray agent before demon and Psy did.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=Jeroen_Sol
While rereading Psy's posts I saw he referred to the double agent as gray agent once. This was in response to demon doing the same. Maybe scum knew of the existence of the double agent and that it was the gray agent? In that case, the comic seems to imply that either someone used an item on the double agent but it failed, or the double agent used an item on someone.


"Gray spy" is the name of the neutral character from the original Spy vs. Spy comics. She showed up in comics in the first Spy vs. Spy mafia game too. So I don't think the "gray agent" term itself is necessarily super meaningful, but you're right that psy and demonlord using the same term as each-other is suspicious. They might have started calling the double agent that name in scum chat.

The events in the comics don't all seem to perfectly align with what's happening. The item-usage comic makes it look like the gray spy (double agent?) used a "purse full of mace" on someone, but maybe not. For example, the trombone comic makes it look like a black spy killed a white spy, when in reality a neutral townie was harmlessly identified by a user of unknown allegiance. And also that comic totally shows a tuba and not a trombone.

Similarly, in the first Spy vs. Spy mafia, Pianotm posted a comic about the gray spy killing the other two spies, when what actually happened that night was that the double agent and a random townie died.

So I wouldn't pay too much attention to the comics.
I'm going to recheck the original setup that the agent faction might have had a nightkill of their own. I'm not sure why PA would be targeted in this case though.

I have not given any thought into parsing the comics because I can really never understand them.

re: codenames: PA made a throwaway claim early in the game the he had a list of all the agent codenames. On the off-chance he was pulling a Merlin stunt I was trying to get Ozzy's to verify/confirm him. I was expecting him to just make up three colors, not get cagey.

re: trombone:

@LockeZ: Well I can prove the targeting was random, at minimum -- when I used it in-thread I didn't list a target. Even if you think I'm lying about how it gets passed, it very clearly gave a random ID read and then canceled the votes.

@Jero: No, I just reread the original message, which wasn't actually ambiguous -- it clearly states that the 10% chance is a false reading. There was some odd word choice earlier that made me think the 10% chance would be something louder or more actively hardful.


For suspects, I don't like Odd just because his two scumreads this game are Jero and Demon (this is literally my only strike in the scum column for Jero but w/e) and from last game I think Odd is really /really/ averse to lying as scum. He scumread me+Liberty on D1 last game, and only me+Liberty. None of his posts this game contain things that Odd would be lying about were he scum this game except for possibly this one https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/24744/?post=889641#post889641

AE looks better to me after Ozzy's flip.
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
On sunny days, I go out walking
1142
where are my adulations
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=Jeroen_Sol
author=AlaskanEmily
Also wouldn't a gray agent be possible (or even more likely) instead of an outright traitor, too?
Emily mentioned the term gray agent before demon and Psy did.


Oh, fun. She wasn't in the first game, so where did she pick that "gray agent" idea up from, hmm? Maybe from reading Mad Magazine. Or maybe she went back and read the first game and saw the comics and looked up who the female character is. Or maybe... they were all using the "gray agent" name in scum chat, and it slipped out.

Then my new guess is that all three of them (demonlord/psy/emily) are in scum chat. Probably Emily is the neutral one, because Psy is acting way more suspicious IMO. And my other new guess is that the trombone was actually guaranteed to be accurate, but psy made up the 10% failure bit in order to attempt to unconfirm the person he tooted.

Actually this is good enough for me to vote on, even though it's a hell of a lot of speculation. It feels right to me though. I just can't decide if I should vote for Emily or Psy.
I want to hear more from Cave. He said some stuff D1 that he wasn't very willing to follow up on, and I don't want to let that go just yet.

I was wishy-washy because I didn't feel like I strongly knew anything yet. What I was most certain of (Ozzy's logic for claiming) was clearly wrong too, Ozzy was an actual agent.

I also still stand by what I said before, until we see the epic battle saxophone again we can't really confirm Psy or Fomar. And while I agree with LockeZ, I really don't like explanations that leave you an out like that, I also don't yet think it's impossible that's how the item works, or that it fell into the hands of scum afterwards.

author=Jeroen_Sol
However, I did see something interesting:

author=AlaskanEmily
Also wouldn't a gray agent be possible (or even more likely) instead of an outright traitor, too?


Emily mentioned the term gray agent before demon and Psy did.


I knew about the possibility of a gray agent (which we still don't know exists) because I read some of the original Spy v. Mafia game, where that came up pretty quickly.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
I'll wait another 12 hours or so for someone to poop out a french horn, I guess. Maybe that will prove that my entire line of reasoning is horseshit.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
I don't necessarily think them using the same term as each other is suspicious, since the posts came right after each-other. Even less so now I see that Emily said it first, a few pages earlier. I guess it's still possible Emily and demon used the term in scum chat, but I'm not convinced Emily's scum.

You're probably right about the comics though.
@LockeZ: if the item was 100% and I was scum, why would I use it and make up a fake explanation vs just not using it?

And the original game doesn't have an agent factional kill, I just in-game thought it did for whatever reason.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=AlaskanEmily
I knew about the possibility of a gray agent (which we still don't know exists) because I read some of the original Spy v. Mafia game, where that came up pretty quickly.
Nobody ever used the term "gray" or "grey" anywhere in the original Spy vs. Mafia game. That was just you, Psy and Demonlord. Which is suspicious because Demonlord was scum. Using the same terminology as him could be because you were talking with him a lot.

Though maybe the name just stuck after you used it in the thread, rather than migrating here from scum chat. That's also very possible I suppose.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5958
author=psy_wombats
@LockeZ: if the item was 100% and I was scum, why would I use it and make up a fake explanation vs just not using it?
To look like town? Also, my guess is that it probably wouldn't target yourself, so you had a 2/12 chance of hitting an agent and only a 1/12 chance of hitting fellow scum.