[MAFIA] IS THIS WEREWOLF?

Posts

Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
At least we still have 3 confirmed town, that's a strong position to be in.

LockeZ may have a point about looking at who were the first people to vote for psy. Gonna review yesterday's posts.
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
Well, damn. I was expecting death today. I'm grateful, and I'm more willing to bet we *do* have a guardian angel among town. More hopeful that way, and losing another villager after offing Psy would've hurt. Am glad that Locke's back in action; RL comes first, stuff happens, that good ol' song-and-dance. :p

Locke has a point about Trihan's last-minute hammer vote. Not taking a chance wouldn't have helped. It's not like the "kill Psy" idea was Trihan and Dudes' alone. Nevertheless, I concur that Psy was a scapegoat. Day one, we would've dropped the axe totally blind; with no clues, we'd be most likely to kill a member of town.

As for Demonlord taking that opportunity? It's not looking good for his motives. Among the suspect, both Demonlord and Trihan aren't in the clear yet. I'm still very leery toward Odd, and staring daggers at Emily. No vote yet; if any of y'all are truly without guilt, now's the time to say it like y'mean it.
I jumped on the train early because I felt like it was a strong argument. If we use that logic though, emily also jumped on the train early and psy had a much stronger scum read on her than he did me. I think it's a question of if you think scum jumped on the train right away, or if they jumped in the middle to look less inconspicuous. I also agree with psy that she has had poor arguments.

So we apparently have a bodyguard now. It makes no sense not to protect a seer claim but too late to do anything about that now.
Trihan looks a bit better to me now. Could have easily just stayed silent instead of hammering. I'm thinking I was wrong about an emily/trihan scumteam, but I do still think emily is one of them.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
Odd was acting weird all day yesterday, and was accused by several people of lying about his role, but I guess it's not impossible that both Odd and Atiya are lycans.

I agree with psy's idea yesterday that it's more likely he's the sorcerer, though. If that's true, then... I think it's fine to leave him alive since the seer's already dead (unless there's a second seer) and we win even if he's alive.

I don't really have a better idea of who to be suspicious of than Demonlord. Like Demonlord says, Psy was suspicious of AlaskanEmily, but I feel like that doesn't mean much since he was vanilla town and it seemed to all just be his own gut reads. I would rather follow my own gut than a dead man's.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
Honestly my money would be on either odd or Atiya being sorcerer and lying about being a lycan; I've been thinking about how having 2 lycans would affect the game, and from Fomar's perspective it would have been a nightmare. Having 2 non-scum players who would show scum when investigated would make seer incredibly unreliable. Would Muffle really cripple the role like that?
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
author=demonlord5000
Trihan looks a bit better to me now. Could have easily just stayed silent instead of hammering.
This logic doesn't make any sense to me. Psy was town. Casting the hammer vote isn't scummy, since nolynching a second day in a row (with an even number of players this time, and a lot more info to go on) would have been pretty bad. Way worse than nolynching on day one. But scum would absolutely have hammered Psy too. Why would scum leave a town member alive instead of killing them?

An opportunistic, illogical, and poorly thought out defense. He went from opportunistically jumping on Dudesoft and Jeroen's blame train to lynch town, to opportunistically jumping on my analysis of that lynch to defend Trihan. I'm thinking a demonlord/trihan scum team this game.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
author=Trihan
Honestly my money would be on either odd or Atiya being sorcerer and lying about being a lycan; I've been thinking about how having 2 lycans would affect the game, and from Fomar's perspective it would have been a nightmare. Having 2 non-scum players who would show scum when investigated would make seer incredibly unreliable. Would Muffle really cripple the role like that?
Maybe, if there were three more town and zero more scum than she origianlly planned for.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
Plus, I feel like it cripples the seer a lot less than a pseudo-werewolf role that is explicitly designed to find and kill the seer.
Trihan
"It's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...timey wimey...stuff."
3359
The difference is that the sorcerer's actions are separate from the seer's, so their net is being cast just as widely as theirs is at first. Whereas for every lycan you add, that's another person the seer is going to get a false positive for, and that's one of the most valuable information sources town has so the less reliable the results are the less useful the role is overall.
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
author=LockeZ
But scum would absolutely have hammered Psy too. Why would scum leave a town member alive instead of killing them?

An opportunistic, illogical, and poorly thought out defense. He went from opportunistically jumping on Dudesoft and Jeroen's blame train to lynch town, to opportunistically jumping on my analysis of that lynch to defend Trihan. I'm thinking a demonlord/trihan scum team this game.


Locke, holy crap. I've felt Demonlord was sketchy from accusations against him, but prior claims seemed pretty vague. This one, however, is on the money. If he's been eager to jump on the blame train, and eager to jump in to defend Trihan, then it doesn't paint a pretty picture.

I highly doubt Muffle would nerf Seer on purpose. It's not beyond possibility that she might've made a mistake, but it wouldn't have been done in malice. Considering my hope that a body-block succeeded last night, I think Muffle played it by-the-book: of the promised bonus roles, each was assigned one each. Well, 'cept for mason. You know what I mean.

Let's be honest. Emily is at the top of my wolf list. Odd seems sorcerer. Either Trihan or Demonlord could be scum, and I'm more willing to suspect the latter from Locke's assessment. And because of this, let's start off the lynch votes strong.

#lynch AlaskanEmily
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
And damn, makes sense that the lycan is meant to get the seer in hot water. I assumed lycan was closer to a town version of the sorcerer, meant to ping as the opposite side by a seer's visions.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to assume Muffle didn't do it. I mean, there's PROBABLY only one of any given role, but I'm not going to base a vote on that, when the OP explicitly says there might be more.

Plus I don't actually think it matters. If one of them (by which I mean Odd) is lying, then they're probably actually the sorcerer. Since the seer died on night one, the sorcerer is harmless now. So either way I'm fine with leaving them both alive.

On the other hand, if one of them is lying and is actually a werewolf, then fuck me.
You answered your own question. No lynch would of been really bad for town. Psy also had enough heat on him where scum could have just no lynched day 2, and then argued on day 3 that he has to be scum from how difficult it was to lynch him.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
The first sentence of that post was in response to Trihan, not Atiya.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
6003
author=demonlord5000
You answered your own question. No lynch would of been really bad for town. Psy also had enough heat on him where scum could have just no lynched day 2, and then argued on day 3 that he has to be scum from how difficult it was to lynch him.
Not as bad as mislynching, dumb-dumb. Scum knew it was a mislynch and town didn't.
No lynch would have gave us no information again, and it also looked like we had no bodyguard. If no lynch happened it could have potentially been us down a mason on day 3 with no information and major suspicions on why psy didn't die. I'd argue a no lynch could of been worse for us.
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
It's unfortunate that Psy died in vain, but I feel his innocence from beyond the block still helped us. After all, the eagerness to kill him made for a good bait. Now that he's proven innocent, the aftermath of night two means there's a chance to avenge him through the clues presented.

Once more, I agree with Locke, who is a pro at this -- scum would have more info than town. I've agreed with Locke's deduction since the start. Despite me being paranoid, for the umpteenth time, he's looking wayyy more pure of motive than you, Demonlord.
Hmm, I don't understand why Psy was acting so weird about being sure Trihan was town now that he's flipped :S

author=Trihan
Honestly my money would be on either odd or Atiya being sorcerer and lying about being a lycan; I've been thinking about how having 2 lycans would affect the game, and from Fomar's perspective it would have been a nightmare. Having 2 non-scum players who would show scum when investigated would make seer incredibly unreliable. Would Muffle really cripple the role like that?


I find it incredibly unlikely there are two lycans. I could also believe one of them is lying scum, and the sorceror is just letting it roll.

Also the sorceror isn't just totally neutral. Even if they don't count towards the total scum, they count as a vote for lynches.

author=LockeZ
author=demonlord5000
You answered your own question. No lynch would of been really bad for town. Psy also had enough heat on him where scum could have just no lynched day 2, and then argued on day 3 that he has to be scum from how difficult it was to lynch him.
Not as bad as mislynching, dumb-dumb. Scum knew it was a mislynch and town didn't.


This is why we reallyed needed to lynch on D1, when we had more of a buffer until mylo/lylo. Like, this is why it's almost always good to lynch D1, this entire game is. And I agree, if we had nolynched yesterday we would probably still be debating Psy today.

Also I feel like LockeZ is only really turning up for the for the first time right now. He didn't cast a single vote all of D2, and so far has mostly spoken about about what we know and why we don't, and not given real reads. I still don't feel like he's said much other than he didn't think Psy was that scummy after the nolynch on D1.

This actually makes me wonder if it's an Antiya and LockeZ scum team, and LockeZ has just been mostly AFK in scumchat too. If it fell to Antiya who is new to the game to choose NK, That would explain why scum targeted claimed seer even though we do have a bodyguard.

author=AtiyaTheSeeker
And damn, makes sense that the lycan is meant to get the seer in hot water. I assumed lycan was closer to a town version of the sorcerer, meant to ping as the opposite side by a seer's visions.


I feel like you should understand this better if it's you're role... :/ The lycan is a false-positive for the seer, so that (had the seer survived) we couldn't have 100% trusted their results. It's a town role, but it makes the game harder for town.

author=demonlord5000
No lynch would have gave us no information again, and it also looked like we had no bodyguard. If no lynch happened it could have potentially been us down a mason on day 3 with no information and major suspicions on why psy didn't die. I'd argue a no lynch could of been worse for us.


Yes, this. Nolynch is generally not good when we don't know that much. And it's almost never good D1, despite what some people argued :V
AtiyaTheSeeker
In all fairness, bird shrapnel isn't as deadly as wood shrapnel
5514
Well well! Time for the kid gloves to come off.

author=AlaskanEmily
I find it incredibly unlikely there are two lycans. I could also believe one of them is lying scum, and the sorceror is just letting it roll.

Agreed. Which is why I doubt Odd. I know my role, and Odd was quick to announce his two role potential out the gate. It's a dumb smoke-and-mirrors act if he's truly sorcerer. Unless Odd's actually a werewolf, he's no priority right now. And if you think I'm lying, as we share a vendetta this game, then why not let the others sort us out on our behavior?

Oh wait. You've been aggressive all game when you've shown up. Welp.

author=AlaskanEmily
This is why we reallyed needed to lynch on D1, when we had more of a buffer until mylo/lylo. Like, this is why it's almost always good to lynch D1, this entire game is. And I agree, if we had nolynched yesterday we would probably still be debating Psy today.

Good thing town took care of that, huh? Trouble is, Psy was already in danger on day two. Trihan's hammer vote was the final nail in the coffin, but the other nails came from somewhere.

Psy's gone. End of discussion. What-ifs will get us nowhere; let's stick to the here and now, hmm?

author=AlaskanEmily
Also I feel like LockeZ is only really turning up for the for the first time right now. He didn't cast a single vote all of D2, and so far has mostly spoken about about what we know and why we don't, and not given real reads. I still don't feel like he's said much other than he didn't think Psy was that scummy after the nolynch on D1.

This actually makes me wonder if it's an Antiya and LockeZ scum team, and LockeZ has just been mostly AFK in scumchat too. If it fell to Antiya who is new to the game to choose NK, That would explain why scum targeted claimed seer even though we do have a bodyguard.

Are you out of your mind? I'll take the accusations thrown at me sitting down, but not him. Aside from some snide (eh, it him), Locke hasn't accused anyone of a thing this whole game. Quite the contrary. You'd think scum would be more proactive in trying to accuse others, getting town to do part of the work for them.

Exhibit A -- was well aware that Psy's accusations were probably unfounded. Exhibit B -- a defense of why lynching day one would've been futile as, aside from almost slaying Trihan, our votes that day were like trying to corral a pack of kittens. And for Exhibit C, a bit of both at the start of day two.

If you want me dead, go for it. I'll wear a nice necktie, or douse myself in A1 sauce before I climb into bed at day's end. But I don't think Locke would play the lack-of-information game. And if he is, well, fuck me too.

author=AlaskanEmily
I feel like you should understand this better if it's you're role... :/ The lycan is a false-positive for the seer, so that (had the seer survived) we couldn't have 100% trusted their results. It's a town role, but it makes the game harder for town.

So newdykes can't town, then? Just because the point of lycan's role didn't occur to me doesn't mean I'm insta-scum. If a seer got a false read due to someone being lycan? a) The seer would still need to make their assessment convincing; b) even if falsely lynched, it doesn't mean the seer was to blame and and c) even if they live, a lycan is still town and no threat.

It'd suck to lose a lycan to a lynching, but then again, it also sucks that Psy got the axe.

author=AlaskanEmily
Yes, this. Nolynch is generally not good when we don't know that much. And it's almost never good D1, despite what some people argued :V

Sure. Lynch on day one with little to go on, when town is probably 70% if assuming two werewolves and a sorcerer. Great plan.