SUMMER MOVIE WAGER

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So... It's been a couple of years but movies are back, baby!

Or you know. Probably. The last time I did this was in the summer of 2019 but I just saw on my podcast feed that The Filmcast is doing its summer movie wager episode and thought "movies are in fact back, baby"

I'm going to paste the rules from the first topic:
2016 Summer Movie Wager Scoring:
  • Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).
The rest of the scoring goes like this:
  • 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
  • 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
  • 5 points if it was two spots away
  • 3 points if your pick is anywhere else in the Top 10
  • 1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

So pick the top 10 movies that you think will make the most money in North America + three dark horses that may or may not crack the top 10 for bonus points.

The last two times I had an additional thing of worldwide box office, but I think I'll drop that this time for a couple of reasons. First, the only place with more mainstream taste than America is in fact the world. So sometimes there were fun interesting movies in the American top 10 while a blockbuster flopped but worldwide that was rarely the case. Second, reading a bit of international box office numbers recently it seems that the reporting isn't always as accurate as the North American numbers and often there's a bit more of a delay in the reporting of them so it'll just be logistically easier to do.

The deadline for submitting the thing is when Guardians of The Galaxy Vol. 3 opens which is the weekend of May 5-7. So about two weeks to think about your picks.

I'm at work at the moment but I might make a reply to this topic later with some ideas for big movies coming out and a link to the filmcast's summer movie wager site where you can submit your picks and see how you do against loads and loads of other people. (I'll probably make an excel sheet for y'all as usual)

I'll also start thinking about my own picks because I have to admit I haven't really looked at what is coming this summer. I know there's a new Indiana Jones and a Barbie movie.
1. The Flash
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
3. Barbie
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
7. Fast X
8. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning
9. Elemental
10. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Dark Horses:
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Blue Beetle
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken


I am not all that confident this time around. There are so many unknowns going into this season. Will The Flash do good enough to overcome the mire that DCU finds itself in? Is MCU fatigue setting in for real? How popular is Barbie? Live action Disney movies have historically performed very well, but there are a lot more openly racists in USA these days. Spider-verse will get a BIG bump by the popularity of the first one, but will that be enough to catapult it up the list? Is Fast X fading? Will MI get a Tom Cruise "Maverick" bump? Is a new IP from Pixar a big a draw as it used to be 15 years ago? Does Optimus Prime have enough mojo to fend off a competitive field for 10th place?
Okay so I didn't get back to this immediately because I really had to think about my picks, especially after listening to The Filmcast's episode on the whole thing

Also if you want you can submit your picks to https://www.thesummermoviewager.com/ to compete with loads of other people. But obviously this is the competition that matters.

And here's my list. I have to admit I hadn't even heard of Ruby Gillman, before writing this reply but it shot into my list because every year these animated things make loads of money.

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
2. The Little Mermaid
3. Guardians of The Galaxy vol. 3
4. The Flash
5. Elemental
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
7. Fast X
8. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning
9. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
10. Barbie

Dark Horses:
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Oppenheimer
Insidious: The Red Door

I'm taking a risk on The Little Mermaid but the Lion King remake was reportedly (I still haven't seen it) awful and made insane amounts of money. But will it actually beat Guardians 3? I kinda doubt it.
So I made another risk in putting Indy at the top. Hoping for a bit of that Top Gun magic that happened last year to make that movie the biggest movie of the year. It'll probably backfire but whatever.

Barbie I originally had higher but then I wondered a bit about what that movie actually is and maybe it'll only barely crack the top 10. Oppenheimer I had in the top10 before I found out about Ruby Gillman and sure Nolan movies always make a lot of money (Dunkirk is the comparison here) but Oppenheimer is apparently three hours long too so that might hurt it a bit. Maybe.
I had Oppenheimer in #10 initially, but then bumped it off when I figured that the movie being not strictly a WAR BANGBANG movie but more of a period drama movie would impact it's earnings.

For Barbie, and I am 100% just going off vibes, and the hype seemed real.
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
1. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning
2. The Flash
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
6. Barbie
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
9. The Little Mermaid
10. Fast X

Dark Horses
Blue Beetle
Asteroid City
Oppenheimer

To anyone who doesn't think Blue Beetle is going to be a success: This movie is getting James Gunn's personal Guardians of the Galaxy treatment. Remember? The movie that broke records at a time when only the hardest-core Marvel fans had even heard of the Guardians of the Galaxy?

Also, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is tracking worse than Thor: Love and Thunder, so its inclusion so high on this list is my hope and prayer that it overcomes the odds (notwithstanding the fact that even if our lists are 100% accurate, that's no guarantee these movies will actually make a profit; Hollywood has wrecked their market in recent years.). I love Guardians of the Galaxy. It's one of the few things I like about the MCU outside of Phase 1 and 2 and Doctor Strange. GotG has delivered every time, for me. This is also why I have such high expectations for Blue Beetle.

I don't have nearly as much hope for Indiana Jones. It's got the failure of Disney's Star Wars hanging on it. There's too much ill-will with LFL.
What knocked it down for me is that Blue Beetles comes out very late (Aug 18) and was originally going to be a made-for-streaming movie, which implied to me lower production values (vs. a big tentpole).
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
kentona
What knocked it down for me is that Blue Beetles comes out very late (Aug 18) and was originally going to be a made-for-streaming movie, which implied to me lower production values (vs. a big tentpole).


Oh! I wasn't aware of that. Yeah, I'll have to rethink that one, then.
I didn't know Guardians 3 was tracking worse than Thor 4. From what I've heard there's actually a fair amount of excitement about it considering it is Gunn's farewell to the MCU and probably a finale for a lot of those characters.

And despite Love and Thunder being a disappointment it still made 350mil, which would put it in the top 5 most years. I personally feel like I'm taking a huge risk putting it as low as #3...

Also the Equalizer 3 seems to come out on September 1st. Which means it has literally one weekend to make the list (since that weekend is the last of the "season")


The Barbie hype is definitely real, but I'm also not sure who the target audience is. From the trailer it doesn't exacly seem like a movie for kids who play with Barbie dolls instead it's like... some sort of playful deconstruction of the whole concept.

I'm sure if it was basically The LEGO Movie but for Barbies it'd make all the money. But right now... Who knows?
pianotm
The TM is for Totally Magical.
32347
So, Paramount just changed Mission Impossible's opening date to directly compete with Indiana Jones. They now open 12 days apart, which is going to strangle Dial of Destiny the same way Mario strangled Dungeons and Dragons. That coincides with Dial of Destiny's international release.

Oh! Rise of the Beasts releases three weeks before Indy and isn't going to have a lot of competition! I better reconsider its position!

"Dead Reckoning test audiences were losing their minds. They're loving it." ~ Bob Bakish: Paramount CEO
"People are treating Dead Reckoning as a follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, and we expect that same exuberance." ~ Deadline
Only a couple of days to get in your picks. After the fourth of May (may it be with you) you aren't allowed in anymore (or if you are allowed in you'll be in the league of latecomers and you scores won't be as impressive)

So make those lists guys.

And I've seen some early Guardians 3 reviews. Mostly skimmed star ratings, trying not to read too much in case of spoilers but... It seems like it's another MCU movie :P
as of right now, I can do no worse than 3rd place
Frogge
I wanna marry ALL the boys!! And Donna is a meanc
18536
Fuck it we ball. I'm gonna abandon all logic to go mostly wildcard, cause then it'll be all the more impressive if I hit anything dead on

1. Across the Spider-verse
2. Barbie
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Elemental
5. Fast X
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
7. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
9. Talk to Me
10. Insidious: The Red Door

Dark horses:
Asteroid City
Strays
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Not including The Little Mermaid because even though it's probably gonna make money I am desperately manifesting that it's a huge box office flop
Why you hate The Little Mermaid so much? Is it because you don't want to Kiss The Girl?
Dudesoft
always a dudesoft, never a soft dude.
6309
I think that Strays and Barbie will be the sleeper Deadpool successes of the year. But I don't think they'll top things like Spiderverse or Guardians. Those are so anticipated, they're guaranteed success. I think also Transformers has the Beast Wars 90's nostalgia lock that it'll draw adults and kids alike.

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. Across the Spider-verse
3. Barbie
4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
5. Strays
6. Elemental
7. Fast X
8. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Dark horses:
Asteroid City
Talk to Me
Insidious: The Red Door

Little Mermaid is going to do middling. There's a woke minority (and I don't use the term woke often, except when it applies to idiots standing on a wobbly soap box to try and pretend they're heroicly standing for something) who will go see it, and little kids. Most parents will probably wait for Disney+ because that's cheaper. Everyone else doesn't care. Anyone who does care will realize how atrocious the songs are and bypass/or wait for Disney+. Their streaming service will be their own worst enemy. (Not that they'll care, since this is a tax write-off)
Frogge
I wanna marry ALL the boys!! And Donna is a meanc
18536
I've seen a lot of advertising for Guardians vol 3, but I haven't seen a lot of hype, so I honestly don't know what to expect. Compared to spiderverse and barbie which people seem to be losing their minds over.

Indiana Jones is a real wildcard aswell, I feel like the older crowd might not bother seeing it because they don't seem to go to the cinema as much, and the younger crowd might not bother seeing it because Indiana Jones is behind our time now.

Talk to Me and Insidious are also unpredictable, I don't think they'll be chart topping, but A24 horror movies and The Conjuring-esque movies always seem to do pretty well.
i have no idea what im doing, im just going off of vibes and hope Barbie ushers in a new era of chaotic filmmaking and branding

1. Barbie
2. The Little Mermaid
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
6. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
7. The Flash
8. Elemental
9. Oppenheimer
10. Fast X

Blue Beetle
Asteroid City
Insidious: The Red Door
It is now Friday and Guardians 3 opens in the americas. So this is officially closed. Though you can join late, but if you win with a late entry it will be counted as a tainted win :P
im just glad we got some more entries. And I am also glad that there is a good mix of rankings. Should be fun!
Well the summer has started and five of the big contenders have been released. Guardians 3, Spider-Man, The Little Mermaid, Fast X and Transformers

With those occupying the top 5 slots at the moment (in that order) the score is currently as follows:
Dudesoft: 33 points
pianotm: 26 points
Frogge: 24 points
Darken: 20 points
Shinan: 19 points
kentona: 18 points

But the current points are pretty meaningless as in the coming month we are seeing The Flash (this weekend!), Ruby Gillman, Mission Impossible, Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer and Barbie. So the big 'uns are still on the way. (Oh and Asteroid City and Elemental too I guess)

However I know for my own list that The Little Mermaid did not perform to my expectations (#2 slot) and Spider-Man overperformed having already overtaken Mermaid despite being out for one week less. Fast X has also underperformed compared to what I expected, with it opening worse than the previous Fast movie. It is doing numbers internationally though but here in the movie wager international numbers are useless.

My hopes are now for Indy, but those are futile hopes...
Frogge
I wanna marry ALL the boys!! And Donna is a meanc
18536
I still can't believe guardians made more than spiderverse?? The movie I've seen like 5 people talk about made more money than the one that's literally an internet sensation right now??? I see like 10 drawings of miguel o hara's ass on my twitter timeline every day?????? (Perhaps that's just very telling about me)
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