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[MAFIA] THE RESISTANCE: AVALON MAFIA - GAME ON
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Kylaila
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author=Gourd_Clae
I felt bad voting for IF, but he looked like he was actively lying. :/ People have been lynched day 1 for less
@cap Why wouldn't scum nk anyone?
I might need the recheck roles, but Lancelot is a Merlin exclusive bodyguard, not a doc, if I remember correctly.
Ofc speculating on this is all wifom, but there are two possible explanations.
1)They're clever and they want to keep mislynch pool big enough, while searching for Merlin.
2)They're afk players and they forgot/didn't manage to post any hunt order or anything.
The former actually seems to be more likely. As it is a viable strategy, especially with missions confirming players as not Mordred (and Merlin knowing whether they're wolves or not).
One thing I shouldn't but I want to speculate on is Merlin's strategy. It's very possible they're holding back as they have perfect information on several players (2-3 probably). Also, they might be keeping lesser wolves alive to see patterns, while searching for a possible head. From the number of wolves, they should be aware, whether such head exists.
Sorry, Merlin for doing this. Wolves might be little more self-conscious now, but I think that it's worth sharing strategy with townies.
Btw as for the mission today. I would send out the most doubtable team possible to see what happens. Ofc most trustworthy townies would pick these sketchy fellas. Given the previous mission succeeded I would say these three are more trustworthy than the rest of us rn.
@Gourd, honestly from the three piano has the least going for him (bandwagonning mostly). Psy and Demon each has something.
Also, Psy and Piano are the most experienced players here and I would suspect them to keep a wide lynching pool (omgus, take it more as words of respect than an accusation).
Demon's not Mordred so he should be focus only if decide searching for other (possible) wolves too.
author=Kylaila
That's a gamble and it sucks. I am sorry IF :(, I guess you still were figuring out things when I felt you might want to do something else. I am too late to ask why he would actively reject a team he was on, though. That felt really odd to me. The Demonlord thing was out there, though.
Yeah, idk, IF was being really weird at the end there
Also something to note: We've learned that demon is NOT Mordred, but this doesn't seem to do much? It wasn't a town confirm like I was hoping. Assuming Mordred is in the game, we could turn our attention away from demon (since we only need to lynch mordred and early game means we're not pressed) but we don't know for sure.
Reads in order of most town to least town to me right now:
I left the day still pretty confident ozzy was being misrepresented, and he seemed to be genuinely trying to help.
LockeZ changed his mind really fast at the end of the day and it reads like he doesn't have much to hide. He was also theorizing and actively furthering discussion so it's becoming hard to imagine he has any ill intent.
demon flipped on IF *really* fast, but I feel like that was justified considering IF was acting really erratic. Demon's behavior near the end of day 1 seems like a nulltell to me. Now that we are beyond day 1 I don't think the reason the vote was on demon really holds up as legitimate, but simultaneously there definitely a few members of the mafia voting for IF. I'm ambivalent on demon as of now and really want to see what everyone else thinks.
piano's gif at the top of the page was kinda weird, but appreciated! I had him as a town read before, but knowing there is scum somewhere on the demon train I'm not as sure anymore. It's really hard to fault him for voting for IF though!
odd not seeming to know if there is a merlin or not is still really weird to me and I think we need to investigate that more
muffle's call for a no lynch day 1 still irks me and then she kinda just stopped talking which doesn't help town much. The way she was miming other people's opinions came across as very cautious scum to me (and again, is not helpful to the town!!)
author=Cap_H
One thing I shouldn't but I want to speculate on is Merlin's strategy. It's very possible they're holding back as they have perfect information on several players (2-3 probably). Also, they might be keeping lesser wolves alive to see patterns, while searching for a possible head. From the number of wolves, they should be aware, whether such head exists.
Yeah, this makes sense! This is pretty much how I hope Merlin would play anyway so I don't think it's too big a deal to mention it.
author=Kylaila
@gourd I suspect scum likely is wondering that right now too.
Wouldn't scum have to choose not to nk though? I dunno why there wouldn't be a nk otherwise (unless I'm missing something >.<)
I think that's a possible strategy (also the note on Merlin), however I disagree with the team proving themselves as trustworthy. Care to elaborate?
Demonlord, for example, was almost lynched d1. They wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves if they were scum. And while psy and piano - if either of them were scum - could try to pass the blame of a failing mission onto demonlord, I don't think they'd find themselves safe attempting so (they are respected players and not deemed 100% by most, right?), and keeping the leads down would be more viable right now. We literally just lynched a townie. Psy themselves campaigned for how easy it is to pass the missions even with scum.
I mean, you even seem to agree that Psy and Demon each have something, does that mean we all/everyone else has more? Anyway, I am a bit confused. (I don't have them on my asap lynch list tho, admittedly)
Demonlord, for example, was almost lynched d1. They wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves if they were scum. And while psy and piano - if either of them were scum - could try to pass the blame of a failing mission onto demonlord, I don't think they'd find themselves safe attempting so (they are respected players and not deemed 100% by most, right?), and keeping the leads down would be more viable right now. We literally just lynched a townie. Psy themselves campaigned for how easy it is to pass the missions even with scum.
I mean, you even seem to agree that Psy and Demon each have something, does that mean we all/everyone else has more? Anyway, I am a bit confused. (I don't have them on my asap lynch list tho, admittedly)
author=Gourd_Claeauthor=KylailaWouldn't scum have to choose not to nk though? I dunno why there wouldn't be a nk otherwise (unless I'm missing something >.<)
@gourd I suspect scum likely is wondering that right now too.
I mean, it's a bit "what if" and something I was wondering since a while, but look at the possible roles of town.
The first post is directed @Cap_H btw! Sorry for the delay.
I wonder what the peeps who didn't lynch have to say on the results.
I wonder what the peeps who didn't lynch have to say on the results.
Ok, them being trustworthy is rhetorical. We mislynched and nobody is proven town as of a now. They a notch higher for succeeding. This means their decision was pro-town. In reality it doesn't make them less scummy or anything. They just gave us this little piece of information we can read them off. It would be nice to build upon it with more. It's more that I want to see their scummiest picks and I want to see how the actual mission play outs. It can spring interesting discussion.
psy_wombats
13315
Back -- day ended early so I'm around until about 18hrs from now and then my internet will get spotty.
Re-read the roles. If there's a Lancelot, then Lancelot would be able to prevent the nightkill by eating it directly yeah? So, I think that 1) Lancelot exists and 2) Lancelot got hit. If scum team passed on their kill, it was to make us think there was a Lancelot. That doesn't seem useful unless there's a plan to trick Merlin/Lancelot into claiming. (ideally Merlin should not be claiming, regardless of whether Lancelot exists. please.)
Re: Cap's Merlin strategy stuff: It's true that it's Merlin's best bet is to hide somewhere and not risk losing the game for town, and if there's a Mordred, the minions of mordred he'd know about are irrelevant. What I disagree with: does this really change the gameplan re:missions? Why bother letting scum fail them by trying to pick "scummy" people if the only people who are going to possibly fail missions are non-Mordred scum, and you're concerned about Mordred? Wouldn't that make succeeding them /more/ important?
#propose psy_wombats, pianotm, demonlord5000
Without anyone 100% town confirmed I see no reason not to spam this team as long as it keeps succeeding. Trying to tempt scum into failing the mission is not a great idea because giving scum a choice in anything is not a great idea.
I'll try scumhunting legit tomorrow but in general my thoughts are that 1) there are almost always scum in the day one train and 2) things moved really fast at the end. Unsure why.
Re-read the roles. If there's a Lancelot, then Lancelot would be able to prevent the nightkill by eating it directly yeah? So, I think that 1) Lancelot exists and 2) Lancelot got hit. If scum team passed on their kill, it was to make us think there was a Lancelot. That doesn't seem useful unless there's a plan to trick Merlin/Lancelot into claiming. (ideally Merlin should not be claiming, regardless of whether Lancelot exists. please.)
Re: Cap's Merlin strategy stuff: It's true that it's Merlin's best bet is to hide somewhere and not risk losing the game for town, and if there's a Mordred, the minions of mordred he'd know about are irrelevant. What I disagree with: does this really change the gameplan re:missions? Why bother letting scum fail them by trying to pick "scummy" people if the only people who are going to possibly fail missions are non-Mordred scum, and you're concerned about Mordred? Wouldn't that make succeeding them /more/ important?
#propose psy_wombats, pianotm, demonlord5000
Without anyone 100% town confirmed I see no reason not to spam this team as long as it keeps succeeding. Trying to tempt scum into failing the mission is not a great idea because giving scum a choice in anything is not a great idea.
I'll try scumhunting legit tomorrow but in general my thoughts are that 1) there are almost always scum in the day one train and 2) things moved really fast at the end. Unsure why.
Jeroen_Sol
Nothing reveals Humanity so well as the games it plays. A game of betrayal, where the most suspicious person is brutally murdered? How savage.
3885
Teams:
psy_wombats, pianotm, demonlord5000 - proposed by psy_wombats:
Accepted by: None
Denied by: None
With 12 alive it takes 7 to accept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current votecount as of 2019-05-22, 11:36 GMT+2:
Not voting: 12 - pianotm, Cap_H, LockeZ, OddRABBIT, OzzyTheOne, demonlord5000, PlatinumAshes, psy_wombats, Yellow Magic, Muffle, Kylaila, Gourd_Clae
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 2 will end 2019-05-24, 22:00 GMT+2, in 58 hours, 24 minutes, or when hammer falls.
psy_wombats, pianotm, demonlord5000 - proposed by psy_wombats:
Accepted by: None
Denied by: None
With 12 alive it takes 7 to accept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current votecount as of 2019-05-22, 11:36 GMT+2:
Not voting: 12 - pianotm, Cap_H, LockeZ, OddRABBIT, OzzyTheOne, demonlord5000, PlatinumAshes, psy_wombats, Yellow Magic, Muffle, Kylaila, Gourd_Clae
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 2 will end 2019-05-24, 22:00 GMT+2, in 58 hours, 24 minutes, or when hammer falls.
True, good point. So wolves very likely know, who's Lancelot. That person probably tried to project Merlin yesterday and succeeded. It would be worth considering, whether they should claim now and select participants of the mission.
They definitely should claim tomorrow methinks.
Actually, I like psy's proposal. Btw, Who do you suspect the most right now? Have your opinion of Ozzy changed in any way?
They definitely should claim tomorrow methinks.
Actually, I like psy's proposal. Btw, Who do you suspect the most right now? Have your opinion of Ozzy changed in any way?
psy_wombats
13315
It might actually be safe for Lancelot to claim. The only downside would be, if this is a setup from a smart scumteam who didn't hit the real Lancelot, revealing Lancelot gives them one less would-be Merlin. Personally I'd think occam's razor applies and it's just scum screwing up.
Re "most suspicious:" Depends. I'm torn on strategy, because really I think the people most likely to be normal scum are hiding in that d1 train. I want to run the numbers and find out when it makes sense to actually go after them though, because, assuming Mordred exists... killing not-Mordred, even not-Mordred scum actually helps scumteam long term, because every day wasted killing a minion is a day not killing Mordred, and a day scum has to try and kill Merlin. Which is an autowin for scum, regardless of however many mooks decide to play this game like they're jesters.
My top candidate for Mordred would be Muffle but that's much less certain. Mordred, like Merlin, is probably trying to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Muffle watched the IF train whizz by her after pledging that she'd vote for the majority decision. This makes sense to me if she was too scared to act because it'd look scummy.
Ozzy is still a good scum candidate, but only for minor scum. His not going to IF means nothing if he wasn't awake. I would think Mordred would be trying to stay above suspicion by bussing a scumfriend though and the only people he really names are me and the posthumously-cleared IF. So: more likely to be trash scum, but less likely to be king scum, if that makes sense.
I really need to do the numbers for this to mean anything though -- work out whether to go for anyone who seems like scum or just say 1) Mordred's out there and 2) he's the only one worth hunting
Re "most suspicious:" Depends. I'm torn on strategy, because really I think the people most likely to be normal scum are hiding in that d1 train. I want to run the numbers and find out when it makes sense to actually go after them though, because, assuming Mordred exists... killing not-Mordred, even not-Mordred scum actually helps scumteam long term, because every day wasted killing a minion is a day not killing Mordred, and a day scum has to try and kill Merlin. Which is an autowin for scum, regardless of however many mooks decide to play this game like they're jesters.
My top candidate for Mordred would be Muffle but that's much less certain. Mordred, like Merlin, is probably trying to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Muffle watched the IF train whizz by her after pledging that she'd vote for the majority decision. This makes sense to me if she was too scared to act because it'd look scummy.
Ozzy is still a good scum candidate, but only for minor scum. His not going to IF means nothing if he wasn't awake. I would think Mordred would be trying to stay above suspicion by bussing a scumfriend though and the only people he really names are me and the posthumously-cleared IF. So: more likely to be trash scum, but less likely to be king scum, if that makes sense.
I really need to do the numbers for this to mean anything though -- work out whether to go for anyone who seems like scum or just say 1) Mordred's out there and 2) he's the only one worth hunting
psy_wombats
13315
Add PlatinumAshes to my minor scum list. He could've legitimately been trying to get people to kill him with his dumb claim and suicide vote, because it'd distract us from Mordred.
I think that at some point, Merlin should be able to out non-mordred wolves and town should be able to find out, who's mordred based on wagons an available information (lancelot, percival are other possible clears).
We should do this the moment Lancelot gets night killed.
Killing scum is still a viable strategy as no one but wolves and merlin know about mordred being in the game.
We should do this the moment Lancelot gets night killed.
Killing scum is still a viable strategy as no one but wolves and merlin know about mordred being in the game.
Other left field theory we haven't considered yet is wolves targeting IF. Seems to be unlikely, tho.
psy_wombats
13315
Probably. IF fumbled pretty hard so there was blood in the water as soon as he contradicted himself. If someone in also felt threatened enough to push the train it sure would be easy.
Merlin should only out the trash minions in the real endgame. I don't think Lancelot can actually clear themselves because there's no way to actually prove they are who they say they are if there's a counterclaimer. But if Morgana is in, then it's possible for a Percival to confirm themselves to Merlin by revealing either Morgana + Merlin before Merlin does. (again, endgame only -- this exposes Merlin)
I started putting together a list of known non-Mordred roles that'd be available to Merlin to try to forecast when they'd be able to poke their head out of the hideyhole but it's really not that useful. There's a whole lot that depends on succeeding the missions, and scum not killing off the people who are confirmed to be not-Mordred. Depends whether scum go for the "kill Merlin, protect Mordred" win condition vs a "ignore Merlin, play safe, outnumber town" win condition. So it could actually vary from d4 up to d6 depending on how aggressively scum pursues people that get quest-confirmed and if they fail quests. Which is to say... unhelpful.
Agreed that a Lancelot NK signals endgame. That would give us exactly one more chance to use Merlin's info to find Mordred.
I'll go to 95% confidence Mordred exists now. Otherwise Lancelot only exists to prolong the inevitable vs give town a final endgame shot.
Merlin should only out the trash minions in the real endgame. I don't think Lancelot can actually clear themselves because there's no way to actually prove they are who they say they are if there's a counterclaimer. But if Morgana is in, then it's possible for a Percival to confirm themselves to Merlin by revealing either Morgana + Merlin before Merlin does. (again, endgame only -- this exposes Merlin)
I started putting together a list of known non-Mordred roles that'd be available to Merlin to try to forecast when they'd be able to poke their head out of the hideyhole but it's really not that useful. There's a whole lot that depends on succeeding the missions, and scum not killing off the people who are confirmed to be not-Mordred. Depends whether scum go for the "kill Merlin, protect Mordred" win condition vs a "ignore Merlin, play safe, outnumber town" win condition. So it could actually vary from d4 up to d6 depending on how aggressively scum pursues people that get quest-confirmed and if they fail quests. Which is to say... unhelpful.
Agreed that a Lancelot NK signals endgame. That would give us exactly one more chance to use Merlin's info to find Mordred.
I'll go to 95% confidence Mordred exists now. Otherwise Lancelot only exists to prolong the inevitable vs give town a final endgame shot.
psy_wombats
13315
my brackets got eaten, that should read "If someone in LockeZ, Gourd, Piano also felt threatened"
author=psy_wombats
Re-read the roles. If there's a Lancelot, then Lancelot would be able to prevent the nightkill by eating it directly yeah? So, I think that 1) Lancelot exists and 2) Lancelot got hit. If scum team passed on their kill, it was to make us think there was a Lancelot. That doesn't seem useful unless there's a plan to trick Merlin/Lancelot into claiming. (ideally Merlin should not be claiming, regardless of whether Lancelot exists. please.)
...
author=psy_wombats
Add PlatinumAshes to my minor scum list. He could've legitimately been trying to get people to kill him with his dumb claim and suicide vote, because it'd distract us from Mordred.
I am getting suspicious here. Your readings have been very thorough and fact-based, but you are missing an obvious possibility here. Or are you wanting to keep the option open?
One, Lancelot claiming themselves is kind of pointless, because we have no way to trust that - we DO have a different way to trust it, though. And that's surviving kills.
If PA was Lancelot, ok, a huge if, but if he was, then lynching him - while a bad idea and wasted lynch - would have revealed him to be a townie to trust.
Two, I mean, I didn't want to point it out, and I still don't like it, fake claim or not, wouldn't that make anyone curious to find out if he IS? It's a huge bait for scum too, especially when it's any kill is good. And a wasted nightkill is HUGE.
Of course, it could be totally unrelated and I DID IT FOR THE LOLZ, or a genius scum play, especially if scum passed on their nightkill, but there is a town possibility here, is all I am saying.
And IF fumbled bad. I was confused because he has been here from second one, and I didn't expect him to fumble with the rules at the point he did. His struggles to explain himself later appeared a bit more real tho, even simply by the fact it made really absolutely no sense. I'd expect scum to lie better lol. Still, I was asleep so I wouldn't know how I would've reacted and I started it, so I have no excuse <.>
