ULTIMA FANTASY MAFIA - GAME ON! [POSTGAME]

Posts

CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
On sunny days, I go out walking
1142
psy wombats may be scum but now i am heavily considering murdering all haiku doers
Ratty524
The 524 is for 524 Stone Crabs
12986
Why, Cave?
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Aren't we supposed to be trying to figure out who is Mafia?

Not debating about haikus, and hashtags. For now, Kloe, LockeZ, could you try to focused, and not do haikus?
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
On sunny days, I go out walking
1142
who do you fos then, rabbit.
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Does? What do you mean?
oddRABBIT
I feel bored. How odd.
1979
Sorry, I meant "fos".
Alright, time get started in earnest. I'm working from these numbers from the rules thread https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/21002/?post=748031#post748031, but the basic gist of things is that we have 1) our seer and 2) an actual functional doctor this time around. Our top priority should be keeping the seer alive into the endgame. If at around day 3 or 4 the seer is still around, we'll have pretty much won. Other victory conditions: lynch the assassin before the doctor. If we get lucky and manage that, the seer is free to immediately role claim if it looks like an innocent is about get daykilled (the doc just protects them and mafia isn't any further along than the first place).

Blacksmith and doctor have the tools to protect the seer, but can't openly cooperate for obvious reasons. Doctor can always protect themselves, but I'm not sure how blacksmith should be playing. Giving shields out at random doesn't seem to be too bad, just because if scum happens to end up with a shield, who cares. I'm not sure there's any other way to collaborate except for saying "if you've got a job and morons are about to lynch you, please don't just shut up and die." (this includes 50/50 flips, ugh)

I'm gonna run some simulations with and without the vigilante sword to check some stuff, but a couple qualms: Normally an extra daykill is great for town even if it's used randomly, but I think we might be SOL if the sword accidentally winds up in mafia hands. They could sit on it until the endgame and then use it to completely screw everything up. Either way, it's going to be best practice to pass the sword to the person you think is most innocent to minimize risk. And don't call if you've got the sword or thief will know to target you.

Speaking of simulation, I'm just getting everything prepped for github now so that someone else software-oriented (YM?) can verify my numbers when sim says 100% ODDRABBIT SCUMFACTOR I'm not working dark magic or something.

@odd please keep your insightful observations about who may or may not have what role to yourself

@cave the sim's from the rules thread and I built it to use it, and now at least it looks like it's my only weapon. Trust me no one's going to be feeling my 3 STR when I hit them with my crook

@lockez any reasoning behind your vote or is the usual day 1 throwaway vote? Because odd is about the only person I could argue is innocent right now

Why all the haiku?
Please either stop or improve
Spring comes to Kyoto
InfectionFiles
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
4622
fos = figuring out serial killer

which is a big deal this game because you could NEVER get it
InfectionFiles
the world ends in whatever my makerscore currently is
4622
psy is probably mafia because of RNG and his amazing talent for these games
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
No one can hold on to the vigilante sword. You may choose not to use it, but you must still give it to another player. This includes mafia. I guess that wasn't clear. Good thing we caught that day 1.
Here's the sim code, it's actually pretty legible: https://github.com/psywombats/ultima-sim/

Using the sword increases town win rate by 2%. But with the rule clarification, throwing the sword away without using it would be very unproductive, so, bombs away I guess.

Another thing I'm worried about: I wrote this assuming that mafia would use deceit to make a random member immune to being seer-ed. But it occurs to me that there's another use where mafia could make a random town flip as the assassin, then when they're daykilled or vigilante-slain or whatever, everyone would think the assassin was dead and seer would roleclaim prematurely. We might not actually have an accurate count of how many mafia are dead. (like if we lynch scum that was disguised as a generic town, we'd think we'd missed)

@Blob cool, that's one less thing to worry about. My only other question would be if it starts made, or is there a day wasted making it? and also the above thing about deceit

@IF I would more call it enthusiasm, I think all I contributed last game was getting Ratty killed (sorry) and amusing Piano by talking at him all the time
Ratty524
The 524 is for 524 Stone Crabs
12986
You DID post that completely metagame thing which almost made mafia lose in the Spy vs Spy mafia, though.
Blobofgoo
Legs are a burden. Return to snek.
2751
It has come to my attention that a destroyed vigi sword would effectively nullify 2 sword actions instead of 1. So I will make one slight change. If the sword is destroyed and the blacksmith is alive, the sword will be auto recreated on the day phase and RNGed to town instead of requiring the blacksmith to forge it at night.
CAVE_DOG_IS_BACK
On sunny days, I go out walking
1142
all this simulation shit is just an excuse to not scumhunt and i won't have it. murder wombats immediately.

FOS means 'finger of suspicion' rabbit. I am asking "who do you suspect?" because you are telling others to knock off the horseplay and play mafia, without actually scumhunting yourself.
Psy was pretty good at running numbers last game in order to help the town. as long as he scum hunts too, I don't see the problem.
Oh trust me later on we'll get to witchunting and assorted scum persecution. But right now the first two pages are just the usual suspects busy hurling mud at each other, and we have like two messages each from Tunger, YM, Tangled, and nothing at all from Xoe. I have a couple people I think are innocent, probably, but that's hardly helpful this early. And I always feel like a jerk killing off people without convincing evidence.

I want to hear LockeZ's reasoning for going after Odd.

I also want to hear why Ratty thinks it's a bad idea to hunt after people writing haikus. "Speaking in verse" is like the first entry in the scumtell encyclopedia. (actually in all seriousness, that might not be a bad mafia strategy, would make it hard to tell differences in your natural voice)

Oh and Tunger should probably post more before he winds up becoming that guy that always dies offstage during act 2.
Ratty524
The 524 is for 524 Stone Crabs
12986
I don't think it's a bad idea, I just wanted a reason for doing things. CAVE just gave me that reason.

author=Gourd_Clae
Psy was pretty good at running numbers last game in order to help the town. as long as he scum hunts too, I don't see the problem.

Agreed.
author=psy_wombats
Oh and we have like two messages each from Tunger, YM, Tangled, and nothing at all from Xoe.

Sorry bout that mate, I was doing family things today. Anyhoo, my 2 cents on the matter of scumhunting on day 1, is that really, it's usually pointless. The main exceptions to this rule being if there is a crazy role like Double Agent, or the Mafia just really, really, sucks.

The main reason for this is that all the investigation powers, and night-kills are not started yet, so there is really no evidence whatsoever, the best bet is to just try to find someone who seems ok to lynch, and hope to Aremen they aren't a special role.
Also CAVE, psy can really on serve to help town with his number running, even if he is mafia it is still helpful info. It is because of this that the mafia tried their hardest to discredit him last game.

Also Just saw This:
author=Blobofgoo
White Mage - Standard doctor role. May not save the same person on consecutive turns.

This puts a huge hole in the "Kill Assassin, Reveal Seer, Protect Seer, Profit" plan, since Mafia can just kill them when WMage has to take a break.
Dammit I totally missed that, that's going to make things tougher. (it also means I need to revisit the sim, the white mage there always protects himself and any revealed roles). But still, giving the seer two extra turns to live (one through magic protection, another through shield) at day 3 would make it very hard for them /not/ to be useful.

Anyway, Tangled, when did you learn to capitalize things? It's giving me the creeps.

Also as much as it's unlikely trying to look for scum, not sure how I feel about sacrificing a town. There's another school of thought that goes you should hunt the people first that make dangerous mafia but uh for personal reasons I don't like that either. Although "dangerous mafia" can also include people that'd be unreadable and people that are never here, similar to how Blob was a really good stealth mafia last game. And we shouldn't have to /pray/ that our target isn't a special role, they should be kicking and screaming if they have anything close to a special role. Hell I think even if start going after the guy holding the vigilante sword, they shouldn't let that happen, especially if the thief is dead.

@Blob do we get to see who used the sword each night? As in, "a vigilante stabbed psy_wombats" or "definitely Ratty stabbed psy_wombats?" Could be verifiable.