[MAFIA] THE RESISTANCE: AVALON MAFIA - GAME ON

Next one to drop is getting my boot inserted in their ass.

Good night.

I messed up my fond size there

I guess I'm not getting any sleep for awhile...
Time to post some theories.

Theory one:

Scum team can only kill under certain conditions. We know the assassin can only kill Merlin, for example. I don't think it's very likely, though.

Theory two:

Scum is trying to hit Merlin directly. They're directly NKing the person lynched each day on the chance that it's Merlin. I think this would be pretty strange, too, since IF's death was due to him acting very much like someone who wasn't trying to keep a secret. There's no reason for scum to think he's Merlin. YM, on the other hand, only had eyes for Muffle, it seemed, and she flipped scum. Also notice that oddRABBIT died the same night that Muffle was lynched. He posted a few strange comments, including about the possibility that Merlin wasn't in the game. I did the same, but that was down to my own interpretation of the rules, which I don't think I was necessarily wrong about.

Theory three:

Scum really is trying to keep as many candidates as possible to keep as far away from a Mordred confirmation as possible.

I would like to hear is what Ozzy has to say about this situation. He is our confirmed town so I'll take his opinions much more seriously.

@Ozzy With Muffle and YM gone we don't as many strong leads. What are your leanings right now?

author=PlatinumAshes
I would like to hear is what Ozzy has to say about this situation. He is our confirmed town so I'll take his opinions much more seriously.

@Ozzy With Muffle and YM gone we don't as many strong leads. What are your leanings right now?

Piano: My main suspect is still Piano, mostly because I can't see why Odd would be targeted, his only real suspect for scum was Piano and he said he didn't have a good reason for it which might've made scum Piano to chose him, coupled with the possibility of him being Merlin trying to play dumb by pointing out there might be no Merlin in an attempt to mask himself as not Merlin.

Psy: I am feeling better about him, my initial suspicions around him have dissipated some more, but I'm still warry because IF had his eye on him towards his death.

Demonlord: I'm starting to suspect him some more, he's been a suspect in multiple people's lists and has so far been on every lynch vote except Muffle's, although he was distancing himself from Muffle in this post and might'v voted for her in the end, but we won't ever know that because of the abrupt end of day 2.

Gourd: I still don't like how he has been mostly echoing others that much and I'd like for him to try and give more substance but I feel better about him for some reason.

Cap_H: I didn't have any major suspicions on him, he seemed fairly consistent up until now and although agressive, seems to be helping town and him now being revealed as not mordred makes me lead to believe he is town.

My best theory is we were too fast. Remember that there's no night phase, and scum has to submit their kills before the end of the day. And we ended the day very early and suddenly.

This means that there is at least one scum among the people who weren't around during the last few hours. Scum might be voting on targets, or they might have a specific person assigned by the moderator to pick targets. If they're voting, then that means none of the scum were active during the end of the day rush, though voting is pretty rare. And if Mordred is in the game, then I assume Mordred is probably the one choosing nightkill targets, so Mordred is probably the scum who wasn't around at the end of the day.

So, who wasn't around?

author=LockeZ
My best theory is we were too fast. Remember that there's no night phase, and scum has to submit their kills before the end of the day. And we ended the day very early and suddenly.

This means that there is at least one scum among the people who weren't around during the last few hours. Scum might be voting on targets, or they might have a specific person assigned by the moderator to pick targets. If they're voting, then that means none of the scum were active during the end of the day rush, though voting is pretty rare. And if Mordred is in the game, then I assume Mordred is probably the one choosing nightkill targets, so Mordred is probably the scum who wasn't around at the end of the day.

So, who wasn't around?

It seems that it was Cap and PlatinumAshes who weren't around. PA came around when the Ky had already hammered.

Also, reading back on some more of Piano's posts, I feel like Odd suspecting him might've really not been the reason he was targeted at all.

#cancel

I feel better about Piano now, good enough to now put him on my list of potentially town.

Town: Kyilaila, LockeZ, OzzyTheOne
Town leaning: PianoTM, Psy_Wombats
Neutral: Gourd_Clae, Cap_H
Scum?: Demonlord5000, PlatinumAshes

I'm leaning more towards Cap just bein aggressive town rather than scum hence why I put him down to neutral. His being away during the lynch and there being no nightkill does make him suspicious I agree.

I've had a bad feeling about PlatinumAshes from the start with his fake Merlin claim and he has never strook me as town up until now and him being away during the entire YM lynch also makes him a suspect if we go by the theory that Scum missed their nightkill due to the fast lynch on YM.

I'm ok with lynching either Demonlord or PA, but I will need to read back on some more of their posts to see if I can find something more on them.