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Summer Movie Wager
Seems a bit happened here. There's some TLJ hate that I would take more seriously if words like "white shaming", "special interest pandering" and "social justice warrior with purple hair" weren't used but oh well.
Let's instead think about those numbers. It is true that TLJ performed worse than expected. It's a 30% drop from TFA in the US box office, now we don't have enough data points to know if this is a trend or not. TFA might have been an outlier (first Star Wars movie in ten years) or it may be a downward trend (Rogue One did worse than TLJ, though, but again not enough datapoints)
If you do go wayback for the adjusted ticket price thingies. The Box Office Mojo of estimated admissions shows that TFA did pretty good and TLJ did better than Episode 2&3, but worse than all the others.
So what does this mean for Solo? I'm clearly speculating like everyone else in the thread. But I think that even with a downward ternd and worst case scenario Solo will still make at least 75% of what Rogue One did. If it does less than that I think Disney will probably call it a total disaster. I'm not saying it's unlikely this is where Solo will end up, it faces stiff competition. But I am saying that that is about the least amount of money Solo will make.
Rogue One did 500m in the US box office. 75% of 500m is still 375m. Personally I think it might do better than that. I'm thinking at least 400+m. But at 375m Solo would still make it to the Top 3 summer movies in all the last ten summers
What Solo has going for it. Or the thing Solo had going for it when executives greenlit it is that Han Solo is a known property and there's probably plenty of interest in a Han Solo origin movie. Since then there's been controversies surrounding the movie that have dampened Disney's expectations on it but the fact remains that it is a Han Solo origin movie and I know loads of people who pretended to be Han Solo in the playground who wouldn't mind seeing that origin story...
And on another note. Today is the last day for your predictions because the new Avengers movie opens in North America tomorrow. So if I see any lists with an "edited by xxx" after tomorrow you won't be eligible to win (though I will probably still count your points because it's all fun and games in the end)
Let's instead think about those numbers. It is true that TLJ performed worse than expected. It's a 30% drop from TFA in the US box office, now we don't have enough data points to know if this is a trend or not. TFA might have been an outlier (first Star Wars movie in ten years) or it may be a downward trend (Rogue One did worse than TLJ, though, but again not enough datapoints)
If you do go wayback for the adjusted ticket price thingies. The Box Office Mojo of estimated admissions shows that TFA did pretty good and TLJ did better than Episode 2&3, but worse than all the others.
So what does this mean for Solo? I'm clearly speculating like everyone else in the thread. But I think that even with a downward ternd and worst case scenario Solo will still make at least 75% of what Rogue One did. If it does less than that I think Disney will probably call it a total disaster. I'm not saying it's unlikely this is where Solo will end up, it faces stiff competition. But I am saying that that is about the least amount of money Solo will make.
Rogue One did 500m in the US box office. 75% of 500m is still 375m. Personally I think it might do better than that. I'm thinking at least 400+m. But at 375m Solo would still make it to the Top 3 summer movies in all the last ten summers
What Solo has going for it. Or the thing Solo had going for it when executives greenlit it is that Han Solo is a known property and there's probably plenty of interest in a Han Solo origin movie. Since then there's been controversies surrounding the movie that have dampened Disney's expectations on it but the fact remains that it is a Han Solo origin movie and I know loads of people who pretended to be Han Solo in the playground who wouldn't mind seeing that origin story...
And on another note. Today is the last day for your predictions because the new Avengers movie opens in North America tomorrow. So if I see any lists with an "edited by xxx" after tomorrow you won't be eligible to win (though I will probably still count your points because it's all fun and games in the end)
Summer Movie Wager
I think Infinity War might have trouble beating Black Panther at the US box office. But it will still be #1 overall.
OBSCURE ONE WORD RESPONSE COLLECTIVE
Summer Movie Wager
Deadpool sort of makes sense because it's not a Disney movie (yet. I guess when the Disney acquisition of Fox is complete it would be). Avengers they already moved to one week earlier than it was supposed to.
But Disney's big movie schedule is basically pretty packed as it is:
April 27: Avengers 3
May 25: Solo
June 16: The Incredibles 2
July 6: Ant-Man
August 3: Christopher Robin
They are all basically one month apart.
But Disney's big movie schedule is basically pretty packed as it is:
April 27: Avengers 3
May 25: Solo
June 16: The Incredibles 2
July 6: Ant-Man
August 3: Christopher Robin
They are all basically one month apart.
Summer Movie Wager
Actually looking it Ocean's 12 & 13, they made little over 100 million and the #10 movie last year made 115million. So if Ocean's 8 makes the same as Ocean's 13 it'll sit nicely at #10. Though the Ocean's movies have been going downhill, 180m for 11, 125m for 12, 115m for 13. I still think that 8 might do at least as well as 13 if it "hits its demographic" :).
EDIT:
Another thing that is... really something to think about I guess.
Avengers 1: 600m
Avengers 2: 450m
Rogue One: 500m
Deadpool: 350m
"Sequels" to these movies come out literally the same month. One of them will have to lose.
EDIT:
Another thing that is... really something to think about I guess.
Avengers 1: 600m
Avengers 2: 450m
Rogue One: 500m
Deadpool: 350m
"Sequels" to these movies come out literally the same month. One of them will have to lose.
Summer Movie Wager
There are two dark horses. I guess it is a bit confusing and I guess I can drop it for next year. But the idea is that in the original rules there are three dark horses that could maybe make the top 10 (1 point each).
But for fun I thought of international dark horses which are movies that don't make it to the US top 10 but does make it to the non-US top 10.
But for fun I thought of international dark horses which are movies that don't make it to the US top 10 but does make it to the non-US top 10.
Summer Movie Wager
Disney owns everything so we just need to bow down to our overlords.
Anyway I made my list. It's pretty boring as lists go because it seems like everyone agrees on what movies will make the top 10. Except that by the end of summer we'll all be wrong.
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. Mission: Impossible: Fallout
7. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. Hotel Transylvania 3
10. Ocean's 8
Dark Horses:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
The Meg
Disney's Christopher Robin
International Dark Horses:
Hotel Artemis
Mamma Mia 2
Some Chinese movie no one's heard of.
Anyway I made my list. It's pretty boring as lists go because it seems like everyone agrees on what movies will make the top 10. Except that by the end of summer we'll all be wrong.
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. Mission: Impossible: Fallout
7. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. Hotel Transylvania 3
10. Ocean's 8
Dark Horses:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
The Meg
Disney's Christopher Robin
International Dark Horses:
Hotel Artemis
Mamma Mia 2
Some Chinese movie no one's heard of.
Summer Movie Wager
Summer Movie Wager
I listened to the slashfilmcast episode on the movie wager and in it Peter Sciretta (who runs /film) mentioned that there has been some tiny buzz around people who have seen Solo (maybe?) saying it's actually good and very fun.
They also mentioned that with the controversies surrounding it the mad bank it makes may be dependent on its actual quality. So if it's actually good...
It won't beat Avengers, but I'm going to put it at #2 in my list (which I guess I will work out during the weekend or something)
They also mentioned that with the controversies surrounding it the mad bank it makes may be dependent on its actual quality. So if it's actually good...
It won't beat Avengers, but I'm going to put it at #2 in my list (which I guess I will work out during the weekend or something)
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